Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.06% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.76% in July, while A-shares have been rising, leading to a rebound in the AH share premium [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded declines in July, contrasting with the upward trend in A-shares, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3500 points [1] - As of July 9, the AH share premium has rebounded to 130.64, an increase of over 2% from mid-June [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Among the 160 AH shares, only three companies—CATL, Hengrui Medicine, and WuXi AppTec—are trading at a premium for their H-shares compared to A-shares, with CATL's premium exceeding 30% and Hengrui Medicine's over 11% [1][2] - CATL's H-shares have risen nearly 17% in July, while its A-shares increased by 7.37%, leading to an expanding premium [2][3] - Hengrui Medicine's H-shares have surged over 29% since their listing on May 23, while A-shares rose by 10.19%, resulting in a significant premium for H-shares [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market dynamics indicate that CATL and Hengrui Medicine are core assets in the domestic new energy and innovative drug sectors, attracting significant capital in the Hong Kong market [3] - The liquidity of H-shares for both companies is considerably lower than that of A-shares, making it easier to drive up H-share prices [4] Group 4: Recent Developments - CATL has signed a comprehensive electrification deepening strategic cooperation agreement with Geely Auto, focusing on battery technology collaboration and supply chain development [4] - Hengrui Medicine has received approval for clinical trials of two new drugs, with one targeting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), indicating a strong pipeline of innovative drugs [5]

人民币国际化是一项长期任务，但国际化进程与中国经济在全球地位提升相比还是慢了。本文探讨人民币 国际化进程加快的可能性，并对由此带来的利弊进行分析。马克思曾在《资本论》中写道：从商品到货币 的过程是一次惊险的跳跃。那么，人民币从当前状态锐变为全球认可度很高的国际货币，是否也会是惊险 一跃？本文主要从"流动性溢价"角度来论述人民币加快国际化步伐的可行性及意义。 本文要点： 当前人民币国际化水平与中国经济体量不相匹配。人民币在外汇交易、国际支付、贸易融资、储备 货币等方面的国际占比远低于经济体量占比。 人民币支付在全球份额或存在低估。货币互换协议和CIPS的使用规模明显增加，SWIFT对人民币支 付的统计不完全，实际人民币支付结算比例估计在8%左右。但人民币支付存在地域方面较为狭小的 问题，国际支付主要发生在香港，占比超过7成。 历史经验表明，加速人民币国际化并不必然导致人民币贬值。我国2005年汇改后，人民币对美元连 续九年升值。 一个经济体货币的PPP汇率与市场汇率之差，实际上就是该货币的风险溢价，风险溢价=流动性溢价 +信用溢价。要缩小汇率差，一方面要改善流动性，另一方面则要增强货币信用。 人民币市场汇率相比 ...

Group 1 - Five companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 9, marking a significant event not seen since December 30, 2022 [2] - The companies involved are Lens Technology, Geek+, Fortior Technology, Xunzhong Communication, and Dazhong Oral [2] - Dazhong Oral saw a peak increase of nearly 35%, while Fortior Technology peaked at nearly 20%, closing up 15.25% and 14.11% respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The number of IPOs and the amount of funds raised in Hong Kong this month have already exceeded 50% of last month's totals, with 8 companies raising 16.851 billion HKD [5] - In June, 15 companies raised 27.868 billion HKD, indicating a strong upward trend in the IPO market [5] - The Hong Kong market is experiencing a positive momentum, with the Hang Seng Index rising 20% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest increase in points for the first half of the year [5] Group 3 - The first-day IPO performance shows a significant reduction in the rate of stocks breaking below their issue price, indicating a strong profit potential for investors [7] - New listings have added growth and attractiveness to the Hong Kong market, with notable stocks like Pop Mart and others experiencing substantial price increases [7] - The premium index for A-shares and H-shares has been declining, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [8]

Group 1 - The global oil market is entering a new period of increased volatility due to unpredictable supply changes, misleading demand signals, geopolitical uncertainties, and deteriorating economic sentiment [1] - Recent abnormal fluctuations in diesel price spreads indicate that traders need a more comprehensive analytical framework to understand the market [1] - The traditional indicators, such as the diesel price spread, are failing to accurately reflect mid-term demand due to extreme weather conditions in Europe and North America [1] Group 2 - The refining industry is facing a capacity crisis, with global refining margins remaining at historically high levels despite concerns over an economic recession [2] - A total of 400,000 barrels per day of refining capacity in Europe is confirmed to be closing, including facilities in Grangemouth and several German refineries [2] - The impact of these closures has not yet fully reflected in current prices, indicating potential future price increases [2] Group 3 - The key observation point is whether the arbitrage trade from the Middle East and India to Europe will restart, serving as an early warning signal for regional supply tightness [3] - The phenomenon of "disappearing barrels" continues to perplex analysts, as the actual tightness in physical inventories far exceeds official supply-demand forecasts [3] - If U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela lead to further reductions in crude oil exports, it could trigger significant market disruptions this year [3]

地缘冲突再激活油价震荡！胡塞武装袭击商船触发三重风险溢价，叠加伊朗核谈与贸易关税倒计时，原油市场正经历软硬实力的关键博弈。当前每桶65~75 美元的波动箱体，暗藏突破区间的潜在引爆点。邓正红软实力表示，原油目前处于盘整状态，短期基本面依然稳固，也门胡塞武装攻击一艘商船，给石油软 实力注入地缘溢价势能，周二（7月8日）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油8月期货结算价每桶涨0.40美元至68.33美元， 涨幅0.59%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油9月期货结算价每桶涨0.57美元至70.15美元，涨幅0.82%。当前油价整体仍计价地缘风险和关税政策带来的需求的不 确定性，延续震荡运行节奏。 也门胡塞武装军方发言人发表声明，称胡塞武装通过两艘无人快艇、五枚导弹和三架无人机袭击了违反胡塞武装航行禁令而前往以色列的船只"魔法海 洋"号，并成功命中目标。同时，伊朗与美国的首轮核谈判将在"未来一周左右"举行，但具体时间未有明确。美国总统特朗普称，与欧盟的贸易谈判进展良 好，但距离向欧盟发送关税函件仅剩几天时间。特朗普表示，已批准向乌克兰运送更多防御性武器，并考虑进一步对俄罗斯实施制裁。他同时称，对俄罗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the new market value management regulations has led to significant developments in investor relations management, with 644 listed companies implementing value management systems or valuation enhancement plans since November 2022 [1] Group 1: Current State of Central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) - As of 2024, 492 central SOEs account for 9.14% of A-share listed companies but contribute 36.32% of total market value, 43.74% of revenue, and 59.03% of net profit, highlighting their critical role in the national economy [1] - There is a notable disparity within central SOEs, with companies valued over 50 billion yuan contributing nearly 80% of market value and over 90% of net profit, while smaller companies (under 10 billion yuan) represent 36.79% of the total but only 2.82% of market value [2] Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations for Small and Medium-Sized SOEs - Small and medium-sized central SOEs face dual pressures on profitability and valuation, with challenges including outdated capital tools and insufficient innovation [2] - Recommendations for regulatory bodies include differentiated assessments focusing on R&D conversion rates for tech companies and flexible regulations for companies in economically challenged regions [2][3] Group 3: Strategies for Transformation - For tech companies, strategies include binding core technologies to teams, establishing innovation incubation mechanisms, and creating suitable incentive systems [3] - Traditional industries are encouraged to upgrade production capacity, integrate supply chains, and pursue asset securitization [3] - Public service companies should focus on value reconstruction, achieving ESG premiums, and transitioning to smart services [3] Group 4: Implementation of Capital Tools - Companies can create a collaborative matrix of capital tools such as buybacks, ESG disclosures, and supply chain integration to enhance market value management [4] - Successful case studies include improvements in R&D efficiency and valuation recovery through innovative practices [4] Group 5: Long-term Goals - Short-term goals include restoring the valuation of 30 underperforming companies to a price-to-book ratio of 1.0 and reducing the overall discount rate of central SOEs by 15% by 2026 [5] - Mid-term objectives aim for a 15% increase in buyback amounts and a 25% rise in institutional holdings in small and medium-sized SOEs by 2027 [5] - Long-term aspirations include achieving a 6% R&D intensity and surpassing 500 billion yuan in overall R&D investment by 2030, with a total market value of central SOEs exceeding 100 trillion yuan [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a bullish bias [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For crude oil 2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory with a bullish bias, with a reference view of running strongly. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment supports the oscillatory and bullish movement of crude oil [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The core logic for the bullish view of crude oil is that due to the existing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the crude oil premium has increased. After a previous significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. The market sentiment has recovered as Trump extended the grace period for reciprocal tariffs. Supported by the bullish sentiment, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices rebounded slightly on Tuesday night. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract rose 1.27% to 511.4 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and bullish trend on Wednesday [5]

| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/09 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/08 | 4.401 | 4.632 | 3.363 | 2.686 | 3.536 | 3.302 | 0.441 | 3.368 | 0.020 | 0.047 | 0.043 | 0.044 | 0.046 | 0.043 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Disneyland's new product launch, "Duffy and Friends Summer Ocean Party Series," has generated significant consumer interest, leading to long queues and high resale prices on secondary markets [1][2][19]. Group 1: Product Launch and Consumer Behavior - The new product series was set to launch on July 8, with consumers starting to queue as early as July 7 evening, despite high temperatures around 32°C [1][8]. - Many consumers camped overnight, with reports of individuals waiting over 14 hours to enter the park for the launch [11][12]. - The online platform saw immediate sellouts of the new Disney dolls, indicating strong demand [4]. Group 2: Resale Market Dynamics - Resale prices for the new products have surged, with some items listed at over six times their original price, such as the green turtle keychain priced at 1129 yuan compared to its original price of 179 yuan [2][4]. - The phenomenon of "scalping" has emerged, with some individuals reportedly hiring others to queue for them, raising concerns among regular consumers about access to products [11][19]. - The secondary market for Disney collectibles has shown extreme price volatility, with past products experiencing significant price increases and decreases, highlighting the speculative nature of these transactions [21][22]. Group 3: Hotel and Early Access Incentives - Guests staying at Disneyland hotels received early access to the park, allowing them to purchase exclusive items, which has led to a new business model where hotel stays are resold for profit [13][14]. - The practice of reselling hotel stays for access to product launches has become common, with prices for such arrangements reaching several hundred yuan [14][17]. Group 4: Market Risks and Consumer Caution - Legal experts have warned about the risks associated with secondary market transactions, including issues of authenticity and potential legal disputes regarding contracts with minors [22]. - The market for Disney collectibles is characterized by significant price distortions, with popular items experiencing price surges while less popular items see steep declines, indicating a disconnect between price and intrinsic value [22].

Group 1 - The design of profit-sharing mechanisms in project financing is crucial, impacting both the interests of investors and founding teams, as well as the company's future financing capabilities and development momentum [2][4] - A core principle of profit-sharing design is "dynamic matching," where the profit-sharing logic differs significantly between seed rounds and later stages, with seed rounds focusing on protecting founders [2][4] - In growth-stage financing, a "ladder adjustment" mechanism should be introduced, where profit-sharing ratios automatically adjust based on valuation milestones, reflecting the balance of risk and reward [2][4] Group 2 - Clear delineation of responsibilities is essential for profit-sharing design, as many startups face disputes due to unclear boundaries of roles and responsibilities [4][6] - The inclusion of anti-dilution clauses in the profit-sharing framework is necessary to protect early investors from dilution of their profit-sharing rights during subsequent financing rounds [4][6] - Establishing a "dynamic incentive pool" of 10%-15% for core employees is a long-term safeguard, allowing for equity incentives without excessively diluting the founders' shares [6] Group 3 - The ultimate goal of profit-sharing design is to deeply bind the interests of all parties with the growth of the project, fostering a "symbiotic mindset" that ensures motivation for founders and reasonable risk for investors [6]