行情异动复盘 期货盯盘神器早盘分享：菜粕形成多个空头堆积带，红枣主买资金炸弹受堆积带强力压制，一图了解玻璃、尿素等热门品种出 现的关键市场信号。 相关链接 ...

市场洞察 - 重点报道 --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 GS Flow of Funds: School's Out ⾼盛资⾦流向：学校放假了 盖尔·哈菲夫 Gail.Hafif@gs.com | 布莱恩·加勒特 Brian.Garrett@gs.com | 李·科珀史密斯 Lee.Coppersmith@gs.co Gail Hafif Gail.Hafif@gs.com | Brian Garrett Brian.Garrett@gs.com | Lee Coppersmith Lee.Coppersmith@gs.com m technicals/flows, not third grade "graduation." School's out and we are on the cusp of summer holiday... but first, we need to address "award season" ... awards for market 学校放假了 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Keysight Technologies (KEYS) based on improved order trends and revenue guidance [6][7]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reported in-line quarterly results with revenue of $2.29 billion, slightly above consensus expectations of $2.28 billion, and guided for FQ4 revenue between $2.49 billion and $2.51 billion, indicating a growth of 19-20% for FY RPO [3][4]. - Baidu (BIDU) exceeded expectations with Q1 revenue of CNY 32.45 billion, driven by a 42% year-over-year growth in its AI Cloud business, leading to a 2.5% increase in stock price [5][6]. - Keysight Technologies (KEYS) reported a revenue of $1.31 billion, 2% above market expectations, and guided for FY25 revenue growth of approximately 6% year-over-year, reflecting an acceleration in order growth [6][7]. - Wolfspeed (WOLF) shares plummeted 60% following reports of the company preparing for bankruptcy, indicating significant distress in the semiconductor sector [8]. - Google (GOOGL) showcased innovations in AI during its I/O keynote, emphasizing its commitment to integrating AI capabilities across its product suite, which may enhance its competitive position in the search market [9][11]. Summary by Sections Market Insights - Futures are pulling back with NDX/SPX down 65 basis points as higher yields impact risk appetite, with US 10-year yields at 4.53% and 30-year yields at 5.02% [1][2]. - The report highlights a surge in short interest, indicating a shift in market sentiment and potential investment strategies [12][14]. Company Performance - PANW's stock fell 3.5% post-earnings despite meeting expectations, while BIDU's stock rose 2.5% on strong Q1 results [3][4][5]. - KEYS experienced a 5% increase in stock price due to positive order trends and revenue guidance [6][7]. - WOLF's stock saw a drastic decline of 60% amid bankruptcy preparations, reflecting severe challenges in the semiconductor industry [8]. Hedge Fund Trends - Hedge funds have maintained a positive return of +1% YTD, with a notable increase in short positions across ETFs and single stocks, indicating a strategic shift in investment approaches [12][32]. - The average large-cap mutual fund has outperformed benchmarks, with 50% exceeding their targets, reflecting strong relative performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [19][36].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are betting on a significant rebound opportunity for small-cap stocks, despite a poor start in 2025, with historical data suggesting a 60% chance of small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in June [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index has declined approximately 5.9% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500's 1.5% gain, and small-cap stocks have not reached new highs since 2021 [1] - The sentiment around small-cap stocks is currently pessimistic, with call option volumes in the Russell 2000 ETF nearing their lowest since February [2] - Short positions in small-cap stocks have been increasing, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF seeing its highest short amount since 2022 [2] Group 2: Potential Catalysts for Rebound - A substantial agreement between the U.S. and its trade partners, along with strong economic data, could serve as catalysts for a rebound in small-cap stocks [2] - The Russell 2000 index has shown a slight outperformance against the S&P 500 by 0.5 percentage points in the first three trading days of June [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Russell 2000 index is currently at a critical turning point around 2100 points, with a potential rise to 2500 points (a 19% increase) if it breaks through this level [3]

黄金多头底气不足，上而却步，空头能否把握反扑时机？金十研究员高阳GMA行情分析中，点击进入 直播间 相关链接 ...

原油日报 | 2025-06-05 沙特下调对亚洲出口官价贴水 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌56美分，收于每桶62.85美元，跌幅为0.88%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌77美分，收于每桶64.86美元，跌幅为1.17%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.07%，报463元/桶。 2、截至6月2日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油库存再降13%，至五个月低位水平，因柴油和发电及船用燃料油 在内的成品油库存呈现两位数百分比降幅。阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油库存总量为1561.6万桶，为12月31日以来最 低。中质馏分油库存下降35%，再创历史低位，库存仅为65.2万桶；重质馏分油库存下降25%，至723.8万桶，亦处 于五个月低位。汽油和石脑油等轻质馏分油库存增加5.9%，至772.6万桶，从一周前的两个月低位反弹，并且自2 月以来首次超过重质馏分油库存。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、美国至5月30日当周EIA原油库存-430.4万桶，预期-103.5万桶，前值-279.5万桶；当周EIA汽油库存 521.9万桶， 预期60.9万桶，前值-244.1万桶；俄克拉荷马州库欣原 ...

Group 1 - Dollar General Corp shares are experiencing a decline after a previous surge of over 15%, driven by a 5.4% increase in same-store sales, which exceeded estimates [1] - The current market dynamics suggest a potential classic bull trap, indicating a bearish trend for Dollar General [1] - Resistance levels in the market indicate a price range where there is significant sell interest, which can lead to a pause or reversal in stock price movements [2][4] Group 2 - A breakout occurs when buyers overpower sellers at a resistance level, leading to a potential bullish dynamic if the resistance is broken [5] - However, sellers may still be present in the market, waiting for the right moment to return, which can result in a false breakout or bear trap, indicating a possible new downtrend for Dollar General [6]

因端午节的缘故，今日A股市场暂时关停，而港股和A50指数则照常开盘。然而，在开市之际，港股与A50指数均出现了显著的低开，并随之迅速下跌，港 股更是跌幅超过了2.5%。这究竟是为何？ 今日港股与A50指数的突然跳水，让投资者感到极为震惊。而这一走势也引发了人们关于A股明日表现的担忧，似乎大家开始预判A股也将随之出现补跌。 那么，港股与A50的急剧下跌背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的原因？ 首先，美国对钢铁加征关税的消息无疑成为了本次市场动荡的导火索。这一政策重启引发了市场对于全球贸易局势的担忧，尤其是对关税连续升级的种种疑 虑，形成了利空消息的严重冲击。 其次，今日亚太地区股市的普遍下行也对港股和A50的走势施加了压力。尤其是港股，恒生科技指数和国企指数的跌幅近3%。同时，日经指数、台湾加权 指数及印尼股市等也均超过1%的下跌，整体亚太市场的低迷为港股和A50继续下跌提供了明晰的背景。 再者，摩根士丹利发布的警告也增添了市场的不安。一份报告指出，美国由于降息和经济增长乏力，美元有可能会出现下跌，甚至重现前几年的低点。此 外，它还提到美元与美股再也不再是全球资本的避风港，这一言论无疑进一步增添了市场的不确定性。 最后，空 ...

给大家提个醒：现在市场情绪有点敏感，欧佩克+会议的结果、美伊谈判的进展，随便一个消息都能让油价蹦跶。但中长线布局不能只看短期情绪——我 始终强调，原油投资得盯着"供需平衡表"和"宏观周期"这两根主线。比如，美国的原油库存变化、全球制造业的复苏情况，这些才是决定油价趋势的硬指 标。 另外，对冲基金的仓位变化可以当"后视镜"，但别当成"方向盘"。历史上机构扎堆做空后油价反弹的例子不少，2020年负油价之后的反弹就是典型。现在 空头仓位堆得这么高，万一产油国没像预期的那样大幅增产，或者全球需求超预期，很可能触发空头回补，油价反而可能来一波急涨。 为啥对冲基金突然这么狠？核心导火索还得归到欧佩克+身上。现在市场都在传，沙特牵头的产油国小组本周六要开会，商量7月的产量。关键是之前已 经有风声说，他们可能第三次大幅增产——想想看，要是原油供应像开了闸门似的往上冲，油价不得承压？这就像菜场上卖菜的突然都多进货了，菜价 自然得往下掉。 更让空头们来劲的是美伊核协议的动静。最近华盛顿那边释放了点乐观信号，要是对伊朗的制裁放松，伊朗的原油就能重新杀回市场。本来欧佩克增产 就够喝一壶了，再来个伊朗"补刀"，供应端简直像多米诺骨牌一 ...

美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）：截至5月27日当周，投机者将CBOT美国2年期国债期货净空头头 寸减少了147,428手合约，至1,119,903手合约。将CBOT美国10年期国债期货净空头头寸减少81,827手合 约，至769,604手合约。 ...