Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that LEGO's success is attributed to systematic innovation and precise strategic positioning rather than just product innovation or channel expansion [1][3] - The report highlights the impact of generational leadership on LEGO's development, showcasing how the company adjusted its strategic direction through different historical phases [3] - LEGO's core competitiveness stems from continuous innovation, with a significant mechanism where over 46% of the product mix consists of new products developed between 2018 and 2024, demonstrating how LEGO maintains market vitality through constant new releases [3] Group 2 - The essence of the toy industry is driven by innovation, with successful products, IP, and channels being external manifestations of this innovative gene [3] - LEGO's century-long development history confirms that major transformations are driven by strategic adjustments underpinned by innovation [3] - The report provides important insights for domestic toy companies, emphasizing the need for high standardization and playability to achieve scale effects, the importance of IP cross-border collaboration, and the necessity of continuous innovation to maintain competitiveness [3][4] Group 3 - The current trend in the trendy toy industry presents a development opportunity for domestic toy companies [4] - Companies with sustained innovation capabilities and comprehensive advantages in product development, IP operation, and fan ecosystem construction are expected to gain greater development space in a competitive market [4]

该银行在中美贸易会谈前进行的调查显示，基金经理净减持了38%的美国股票，这是两年来最高水平。 但由于投资者对股票的风险敞口很低，市场参与者警告称，持续的股市上涨将使看跌头寸蒙受巨额损 失。同时，在已经高企的水平上追涨可能会给交易员带来更多痛苦。 投资者对5月份全球经济增长的悲观情绪有所缓解。净59%的投资者预计全球经济增长将放缓，低于4月 份的82%。净1%的人认为可能出现衰退，较4月份的42%大幅下降。投资者目前的共识是软着陆，即通 胀下降，而经济不会明显放缓或陷入衰退。本月，61%的投资者预计会出现这种结果，高于4月份的 37%，对硬着陆的预期已从4月份的49%降至26%。 43%的投资者将贸易战列为最有可能引发系统性信贷危机的因素。第二个最有可能的来源是美国的影子 银行，占比25%。美国银行在调查的同时发布的一份新闻稿中说，中美经贸会谈成果"防止了经济衰退 或信贷事件"。这项调查是在周一宣布削减关税之前进行的。 对于美股，美国银行策略师表示，在美国和中国达成贸易休战引发股市上涨后，投资者可能被迫追涨， 因为他们在上月的反弹中大部分错失了机会。 美国股市因贸易战出现缓和迹象而持续反弹。标普500指数较其2 ...

Core Insights - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that 43% of investors believe trade conflicts are the most likely trigger for a systemic credit crisis [1] - The second most cited source of potential credit crisis is the shadow banking sector, with 25% of investors identifying it as a concern [1] - The survey was conducted prior to the announcement of tariff reductions, and the bank noted that the outcomes of US-China trade talks have "prevented economic recession or credit events" [1]

Group 1 - "Long gold" has become the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, with 58% of investors considering it the current most crowded trade, significantly higher than the second-ranked "long tech giants" at 22% [2] - Gold is viewed as the most overvalued asset since 2008, with a net 45% of investors believing it is overvalued, an increase from 34% in April [5] - Investor sentiment towards the US dollar has shifted significantly, with a net 17% of investors holding a low allocation stance, marking a 19-year low since May 2006 [8] Group 2 - A net 57% of investors believe the US dollar is overvalued, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month, representing the largest monthly decline since September 2023 [11] - Despite a slight improvement in global investor sentiment, it remains at a pessimistic level, with 61% of investors expecting a "soft landing" for the global economy, up from 37% in April [16] - A net 59% of investors expect the economy to weaken, showing the largest monthly improvement since October 2024, although expectations are still down 66 percentage points from the peak in December 2024 [19] Group 3 - 62% of investors view tariffs as the biggest tail risk for a global recession, with 43% believing tariffs could lead to a systemic credit event, followed by the US shadow banking system at 25% [21] - Investors are significantly adjusting their asset allocations, with a net 38% underweight in US stocks, the lowest level since May 2023, while eurozone stock allocation increased by 13 percentage points to a net 35% overweight [26] - There has been a substantial increase in tech stock allocation by 17 percentage points, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2013, while energy stock allocation has dropped to a net 35% underweight, the lowest on record [26]

撰文丨王聪 编辑丨王多鱼 排版丨水成文 2021 年，德国埃尔朗根-纽伦堡大学的研究人员首次使用 CAR-T 细胞疗法 成功治疗了一位 复发/难治性 系 统性红斑狼疮 （SLE） 患者，此后，世界各地启动了众多临床试验，以评估 CAR-T 细胞疗法在 B 细胞介 导的自身免疫疾病中的安全性和有效性。 同种异体 CAR-T 细胞因其均一性、可快速获取，以及潜在的成本效益而独具优势，有望成为治疗自身免疫 疾病的一种极具前景的疗法。 然而，移植物抗宿主病 （GvHD） 、同种异体排斥、基因编辑相关的潜在基 因毒性压力以及过度免疫抑制导致的感染风险，限制了当前同种异体 CAR-T 细胞产品的更广泛临床应用。 2025 年 5 月 8 日，浙江大学医学院第一附属医院 佟红艳 、 林进 及华东师范大学/邦耀生物 杜冰 、 刘明耀 等人，在 Cell Research 期刊发表了题为： Allogeneic anti-CD19 CAR-T cells induce remission in refractory systemic lupus erythematosus 的论文 【1】 。 这项研究表明，采用减低强度淋巴细胞 ...

固定收益研究团队 2025 年 05 月 11 日 关注专栏 4，防范长债的利率风险 ——央行一季度货币政策执行报告学习 陈曦（分析师） 刘伟（分析师） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 liuwei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070008 2025 年 5 月 9 日，央行发布 2025 年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告。 央行重启"国债买卖"概率较低 央行一季度货币政策报告提出，"阶段性暂停国债买卖操作，视市场供求状况择 机恢复操作"，引发市场对恢复国债买卖操作的预期。我们认为，概率较低。 （1）报告中该段明确提出，"10 年期国债收益率一度跌破 1.6%的历史低位，阶 段性暂停在公开市场买入国债"。2025年一季度10年国债收益率最低为1.5958%， 5 月 9 日仅为 1.6351%，与当时基本接近，如果此时重启，当时就没必要暂停。 （2）虽然报告中提到"视市场供求状况择机恢复操作"，但实际上 1 月 10 日"中 国人民银行决定阶段性暂停在公开市场买入国债"的公告中，已经讲过"后续将 视国债市场供求状况择机恢复"。一季度货币政策执行报告只是 ...

徐健教授指出，SLE具有"重女轻男"的发病特点，男女比例达1:12，这与雌激素水平密切相关。该病有 两个好发年龄峰值：一是15岁左右的青春期，女性初潮后卵巢功能成熟，雌激素分泌增加；二是30-45 岁的育龄期，此阶段激素波动显著，尤其是妊娠和分娩可能诱发或加重病情。徐健教授强调，"必须对 女性患者进行全生命周期的保护，尤其在青春期和育龄期这两个关键阶段。 此外，该病也与生活环境有很大关系。红斑狼疮与紫外线强关联，紫外线会诱导皮肤或血液中出现 DNA的交连、互连，DNA变性会导致出现一系列免疫反应，特别是自身免疫反应，进而导致狼疮。食 物、重金属、油漆、污染物等，也是红斑狼疮的诱因。 重症狼疮患者的死亡率非常高，重要脏器受累，短时间内高疾病活动，都预示着是重症狼疮。所以要早 期发现、诊断和治疗，以免出现到重症阶段不可治的情况。 狼疮是一类慢性自身免疫性结缔组织疾病的总称，其中最常见的为系统性红斑狼疮（SLE），可导致肾 脏、心血管、肺、消化系统、血液系统、血管、眼部等多器官、组织的损伤，并显著增高患者的死亡风 险。目前，中国狼疮患者已超100万，多见于育龄女性。 每年的5月10日是世界狼疮日，专家强调，当前狼疮 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support the real economy and maintain the health of the banking system, shifting the focus from merely promoting economic stability to consolidating the fundamentals of economic development and social stability [1][3] - The PBOC plans to maintain ample liquidity and align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations, while also promoting a reasonable rebound in prices [3] - The report outlines a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at enhancing consumption, supporting technology and green finance, and stabilizing foreign trade, while also ensuring the stability of the financial market and preventing systemic financial risks [1][3] Group 2 - The PBOC will introduce a package of financial policies to boost consumption and guide financial institutions in enhancing consumer finance services [1] - The report includes six special sections discussing key topics such as the positioning of MLF after policy rate adjustments, measures to lower corporate financing costs, and improvements to the bond market system [1] - The PBOC aims to strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies, reduce banks' funding costs, and ensure that monetary policy transmission mechanisms are effective [3]

一揽子金融政策有效提振市场情绪。 5月7日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 本次发布会出台了降准降息、结构性货币政策工具降价扩容、险资入市加码、公募费率改革等众多增量政策。 公募基金普遍认为，会议释放积极政策信号，有效提振市场情绪。 发布会超预期 此次发布会上，央行发布三类共10项货币政策，延续货币政策适度宽松基调，强化逆周期调节和支持实体经济 发展。 金融监管总局发布8项增量政策，覆盖房地产、资本市场、小微民营企业、外贸及科技创新等多个领域。 证监会强调以下举措：巩固市场回稳向好势头，支持汇金公司发挥好"平准基金"作用；服务新质生产力发展， 出台深化科创板、创业板改革措施，抓紧发布新修订的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》和相关监管指引， 发展科技创新债券；推动中长期资金入市，抓紧落实《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 "这一次'一揽子金融政策'对市场的影响更偏细水长流。"招商基金指出，虽然市场对本次发布会第一反应的超 预期是央行"双降"，但随着关税冲击的显现，真正能让经济和市场行稳致远的仍在于货币金融政策和财政政策 的协同，预计随着"一揽子金融政策"在今年 ...

围绕提升行业服务投资者的能力，《方案》突出引导基金公司、基金销售机构围绕投资者最佳利益，全 面优化投资研究、产品设计、风险管理、市场推广等资源配置，践行长期投资、价值投资、理性投资， 努力给投资者带来更优的回报。 《方案》还提出，抓紧出台公募基金投资顾问管理规定，促进基金投顾业务规范发展，为投资者提供适 配其特点和需求的组合投资服务。同时，加快推出机构投资者直销服务平台，便利各类机构投资者参与 基金投资。 针对强化基金公司与投资者的利益绑定，《方案》提出，全面建立以基金投资收益为核心的行业考核评 价体系，将业绩比较基准对比、基金利润率等直接关乎投资者利益的指标引入考核体系，相应降低产品 管理规模排名、基金公司收入利润等指标的考核权重。提高基金公司高管、基金经理跟投本公司管理产 品的比例和锁定期要求。 其中，基金公司股东和董事会对公司高管的考核，基金投资收益指标权重不低于50%；对基金经理的考 核，基金产品业绩指标权重不低于80%。对基金投资收益全面实施长周期考核机制，其中三年以上中长 期收益考核权重不低于80%。 《方案》还督促基金公司建立健全与基金投资收益挂钩的薪酬管理制度。对三年以上产品业绩低于业绩 比较 ...