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银行业周报(2025.07.07-2025.07.13):险资长周期考核强化,增厚银行股红利价值-20250714
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-14 07:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its value for long-term investment [5][29]. Core Insights - The recent adjustments in insurance fund management are expected to enhance the dividend value of bank stocks, promoting long-term and stable investments [5][8]. - The banking sector's performance has been relatively weak compared to the broader market, with a decline of 1% in the banking sector against a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 index [5][9]. - As of July 11, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.70, with a dividend yield of 5.54%, indicating attractive valuation levels [5][20]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on July 11, 2025, to guide insurance funds towards long-term stable investments, adjusting performance evaluation metrics for state-owned commercial insurance companies [7][8]. - The new evaluation method emphasizes a combination of annual and multi-year performance indicators, aiming to enhance the stability and growth of insurance capital [7][8]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector saw a 1% decline, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.82%. Notably, state-owned banks increased by 1.31%, while city commercial banks and joint-stock banks experienced declines of 2.69% and 1.53%, respectively [5][9]. - Individual bank performances varied, with Xiamen Bank leading with an 8.73% increase, while several banks like Shanghai Bank and Jiangsu Bank faced notable declines [9][16]. Valuation and Company Analysis - As of July 11, 2025, the banking sector's PB ratio is 0.75, reflecting a 45.73% discount compared to the overall A-share market [20][25]. - The report lists key banks with their respective valuations, indicating a general decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [25][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the enhanced evaluation of insurance funds will lead to increased allocation towards equity assets, benefiting the banking sector [5][29]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [5][29].
长周期考核落地,险资投向全解析!银行股点燃红利基金,港股红利ETF基金(513820)盘中价又创新高!资金跑步涌入高股息板块
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 06:40
Group 1 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513820) experienced fluctuations and reached a new high since its listing, with a slight increase of 0.16% as of 13:24 [1] - The leading Bank ETF (512820) also showed positive movement, with a minor increase of 0.13%, attracting over 40 million yuan in investment over the past two days [1] - Major component stocks of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF saw significant gains, with China National Materials rising over 7% and China Shenhua increasing over 4% [3] Group 2 - The Bank ETF's component stocks mostly rose, with notable increases in the shares of Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and others, all gaining over 1% [5] - The Agricultural Bank announced a dividend distribution of 1.646 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 58.664 billion yuan [5] - The recent regulatory changes aim to optimize the long-term assessment mechanism for state-owned insurance companies, potentially increasing their investment in the stock market [6][8] Group 3 - Insurance funds are expected to increase their stock market investments significantly, with projections of an additional 600 to 800 billion yuan over the next three years, particularly favoring high-dividend stocks [9][10] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513820) is highlighted as a leading choice for investors seeking high dividend yields, with a total size exceeding 3 billion yuan [13] - The ETF has maintained a consistent monthly dividend distribution for 12 consecutive months, making it a prominent option in the market [13]
国新证券每日晨报-20250714
Guoxin Securities Co., Ltd· 2025-07-14 05:09
Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a slight increase after a high and low fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3510.18 points, up 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10696.1 points, up 0.61% [1][10] - Among 30 first-level industries, 19 saw an increase, with non-bank financials, computers, and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while banks, building materials, and coal experienced significant declines [1][10] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 173.66 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][10] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.63%, the S&P 500 down 0.33%, and the Nasdaq down 0.22% [2] - Gold stocks performed well, with significant gains in companies like Coeur Mining, which rose over 5%, and Pan American Silver, which increased by more than 3% [2] News Highlights - The establishment of a long-term assessment mechanism for state-owned insurance companies aims to enhance investment stability and increase the proportion of investments in A-shares [13] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has implemented further reforms to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including new business rules to support high-quality, unprofitable technology companies [14][15] - The "Guo Uranium No. 1" project in Inner Mongolia has produced its first barrel of uranium, marking a significant advancement in China's uranium resource development [17][18] - Alibaba is attempting to create a new promotional event called "Super Saturday," offering consumers a total of 188 yuan in takeaway consumption red envelopes [19]
进一步加强长周期考核,更好发挥险资长期资
Dongguan Securities· 2025-07-14 03:25
保险行业 超配(维持) 进一步加强长周期考核,更好发挥险资长期资 本属性 保险行业事件点评 点评: | | | | | | | 分析师:吴晓彤(SAC | 执业证书编号:S0340524070001) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 | 年 | 7 | 月 | 14 | 日 | | | | | | | | | | 电话:0769-22119302 邮箱 | wuxiaotong@dgzq.com.cn | 事件: 7 月 11 日,财政部印发《关于引导保险资金长期稳健投资 进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核 的通知》。将险资净资产收益率和资本保值增值率的考核方式调整为"当年度指标+三年周期指标+五年周 期指标",权重分别设定为 30%、50%、20%,并要求自 2025 年度绩效评价起正式实施。 险资对权益资产的配置比例有待提高,前期,当年度较高的考核权重导致险资权益投资配置积极性较 低。证监会表示,中长期资金不足仍是制约资本市场健康发展的突出问题。截至2024年底,我国商业 保险资金运用余额约33万亿元,实际投资A股的比 ...
经学今古文之争的实质:起于西汉的经学被系统性混入伪学、伪史
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 03:17
今古文之争的根本问题源于两汉,尤其是西汉时期的经学体系,这一体系本身就存在系统性的矛盾。然而,这一矛盾在清朝之前 并未得到充分的暴露,直至清朝的考据学盛行,才使得这一矛盾逐渐显现出来。清朝的学者们,特别是专注于考证的学者,开始 深入挖掘这些问题,并将其暴露在学术界之上。晚清的廖平,正是首位系统性总结这一矛盾的人之一。他不仅揭示了这一矛盾的 存在,还试图给出解释,但遗憾的是,他并未能成功解开这一谜团,反而因揭示这一问题而引发了巨大的混乱,给经学带来了深 远的负面影响,成为经学崩溃的原因之一。 廖平首先通过"今古文"的对比方式来归纳和解释这一系统性矛盾,并进一步提出了一种阴谋论的解释。他认为,王莽篡汉之际, 为了谋求政权的合法性,指使刘歆伪造了古文五经。基于这一理论,廖平撰写了一本名为《今古学考》的小书,并将其交给康有 为传阅。然而,康有为却在没有告知廖平的情况下,将其内容大幅扩展,最终在1891年出版了《新学伪经考》。这一举动不仅让 康有为一举成名,也将"伪经"这一说法广为传播,尤其是在甲午战争爆发后的几年,这一说法与中国的惨败形成了共振,导致了 中国学术界对五经的信任和信心彻底崩溃。 此事还引发了廖平与康有为 ...
五矿期货文字早评-20250714
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 02:41
文字早评 2025/07/14 星期一 宏观金融类 4、英伟达:英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋将于 7 月 16 日在北京召开新闻发布会。 5、财政部近日印发《关于引导保险资金长期稳健投资进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核的通知》 提出:国有险企今年起全面落地三年以上长周期考核,增加五年周期指标。引导其更好发挥长期机构投 资者的作用。 6、近日,中国移动采购与招标网显示,智元和宇树中标机器人大单。 期指基差比例: IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.01%/-0.37%/-0.53%/-1.23%; IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.07%/-0.89%/-1.77%/-3.87%; IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.13%/-1.12%/-2.19%/-5.03%; IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.08%/-0.21%/-0.19%/-0.15%。 交易逻辑:海外方面,近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面,重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。近期防内卷及稳定币等题材带动市场风偏提升,相关权重带动股指出现反弹。 策略上,关注市场风格转换的机会,建议逢低做多 IF 股指期货。 股指 ...
险资长周期考核新政落地,这一板块有望迎来更多长期资金流入
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-14 02:26
Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide insurance funds towards long-term stable investments and to strengthen the long-cycle assessment of state-owned commercial insurance companies [1] - The notice requires state-owned commercial insurance companies to establish a long-cycle assessment mechanism of over three years, focusing on improving asset-liability management and enhancing investment management capabilities [1] - The net asset return rate will be adjusted to include annual, three-year, and five-year indicators with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20%, promoting a focus on long-term returns and high-quality development [1] Group 2 - The capital preservation and appreciation rate will also be adjusted to include annual, three-year, and five-year indicators, which will help reduce the impact of market fluctuations on annual performance evaluations [1] - The new requirements will be implemented starting from the performance evaluation of 2025, encouraging long-term, value, and stable investments [1] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the balance of insurance fund investments was 34.93 trillion yuan, with stock investments in life and property insurance accounting for 8.43% and 7.56% respectively, indicating a significant gap from regulatory limits [1] Group 3 - The implementation of the notice is expected to increase the proportion of insurance funds allocated to stocks and reduce the impact of short-term market fluctuations on insurance companies' performance [2] - Bank stocks, known for stable performance and high dividends, align well with the insurance funds' pursuit of stable returns, potentially leading to increased allocation towards bank stocks under the long-cycle assessment mechanism [2] - ETFs tracking banking indices, such as the Bank ETF (515020) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190), may see more long-term stable capital inflows, making them noteworthy investment targets [2]
长周期考核,化解长投顾虑!险资渐成“托底”主力军!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 01:48
日前,财政部发布《关于引导保险资金长期稳健投资 进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核的通 知》,推动保险资金全面建立三年以上长周期考核机制。其中,对净资产收益率和资本保值增值率这两 大指标的评价,三年、五年的长周期考核权重提升至70%。 低利率势大力沉,并且低利率预期还在不断形成之中。无论是银行存款利率还是国债收益率,都在持续 走低。银行陷入净息差的煎熬之中,保险则全力预防"利差损"和"费差损"的风险,利率和费率进入下降 通道。 今年1月,中央金融办等六部门联合发布了《推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》,明确提出大型险 企每年新增保费的30%,要投向A股。作为"长钱长投"的代表,顶层设计之下,险资入市的各种配套执 行政策正逐步到位。 长周期考核之于险资决策的影响是显而易见的,加大在资本市场权益投资比例和加大对科技企业长期资 金支持,都是人们期待出现的变化。 推动中长期资金入市,是国家既定战略方向。相较其他中长期资金,险资不仅拥有规模优势,同时还拥 有久期优势,跨周期和逆周期能力更胜一筹。因此,循着国家大势,险资若能乘势而上,既能事倍功 半,也能一举突破既有市场窠臼。 生逢其时! 长周期考核,最直接的影响,就是 ...
世界遗产大会“考古遗产保护传承与可持续发展”边会上,三星堆等保护案例引关注 向世界展示四川考古遗址保护成果
Si Chuan Ri Bao· 2025-07-14 00:12
●三星堆、金沙、宝墩、城坝、罗家坝、邛窑等遗址已编制完成文物保护规划和国家考古遗址公园 规划,为考古遗址保护管理和遗址公园建设提供了依据 ●四川一直致力于推动考古遗址的社区共享与可持续发展,关注遗址保护与利益相关者的和谐共融 ●创建国家文物保护利用示范区,以及建成国家考古遗址公园的不同探索和实践,提高了社区参与 遗址保护传承的积极性、认同感和获得感 法国巴黎时间7月12日晚,在第47届世界遗产大会期间,由中国国家文物局和四川省人民政府共同 主办,四川省文物局、中国古迹遗址保护协会、中国文化遗产研究院联合承办的"考古遗产保护传承与 可持续发展"边会在巴黎举行。现场,四川大学杰出教授、考古文博学院学术院长霍巍以三星堆和金沙 等遗址为例,分享了四川考古遗产保护实践的生动案例。 四川是中华文明的重要发源地之一,拥有从旧石器时代到各历史时期的众多考古遗址,其中国家大 遗址6处,分别是三星堆遗址、金沙遗址、成都平原史前城址、罗家坝遗址、城坝遗址和蜀道;此外, 还拥有三星堆、金沙、邛窑、宝墩4座国家考古遗址公园。三星堆遗址还成功创建国家文物保护利用示 范区。为了保护好、传承好这些珍贵的文化遗产,四川展开了具有四川特色的考古 ...
夏练三伏,一场“迎着太阳飞”的“加试”
Nan Jing Ri Bao· 2025-07-13 23:56
无人机飞手就位,天气挡不住"考证热" "刚才方向有点偏,应该飞得再慢一点。"飞行结束后,鲍书豪指着电脑屏幕上的飞行轨迹对学员耐心讲 解。在鲍书豪的电脑桌前,摆放着一只便携式风扇,脚边放着一瓶饮料,即便如此,在热浪和太阳 的"烤"验下,他头发鬓角已经被汗水打湿,脖子、手背全是汗。 11时30分,3名学员的模拟考试训练全部完成,鲍书豪抖一抖湿透了的T恤,用纸巾擦擦汗,此时无人 机表面已被晒得发烫。尽管面临高温天气,他的教学时间仍从9时30分持续到11时30分左右,下午由于 天气太热,训练要避开酷暑,从16时30分开始一直到19时。 "这批学员已经练了一个月,本月7日就要考试,进度不能落下,必须做好最后冲刺。"鲍书豪坦言,飞 行无小事,无人机练习不可能速成,所有学员拿证前都需要经历30—40天的刻苦训练,教练也必须全程 全身心投入。 "光去年7月,我们基地就消耗了200箱左右的矿泉水。"江心洲中通金崴无人机训练基地相关负责人李琢 告诉记者,夏季是一年中无人机培训热度最高的时段,也是训练最辛苦、最难熬的时候。一方面,随着 学校放假,无人机培训报名人数增多,教学任务重,每个教练平均要带5名学生,基地在暑期最忙的时 候有 ...