Group 1: Core Views - The demand for RMB investments is expected to increase as central banks and market investment institutions expand their holdings of RMB, presenting opportunities for the development of Shanghai as a global RMB investment market [1][13][14] - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend is reshaping the international monetary system, leading to a higher demand for RMB and necessitating the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center [1][4][5] Group 2: Historical Context of the International Monetary System - The Bretton Woods system established a dollar-centered international monetary system, which collapsed in 1971, leading to the emergence of a purely fiat currency system [2][3] - The Jamaica Agreement in 1976 confirmed the transition to a system where currencies float against the dollar, with the dollar remaining the central currency despite the shift to a fiat basis [3][4] Group 3: Current Trends and Challenges - The decline of the US economy and the increasing trade and fiscal deficits have weakened the dollar's creditworthiness, contributing to the "de-dollarization" trend [4][6][8] - The rise of emerging markets and the push for international monetary reform are evident as countries seek to reduce reliance on the dollar through bilateral currency settlements and other strategies [8][9] Group 4: Opportunities for RMB Internationalization - The shift in the international monetary landscape and the diversification of global asset allocation will enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, necessitating proactive measures to expand RMB's cross-border use [13][14][16] - Enhancing the global supply and appeal of RMB assets is crucial for attracting foreign investment and improving the quality of RMB financial products [16][17] Group 5: Strategic Initiatives for RMB - Developing a domestic offshore financial system and promoting RMB internationalization are essential for increasing RMB's share in global payments and reserves [17][18] - The introduction of RMB stablecoins could serve as a strategic tool for enhancing RMB's international presence and facilitating cross-border transactions [19][12]

可借人民币汇率双向波动之机，进一步完善以市场供求为基础的、有管理的浮动汇率制度。而人民币汇率市场化 形成机制完善，将为扩大资本账户开放提供制度保障。 自2009年跨境贸易人民币计价结算试点以来，人民币逐步在政策上完成了从"非国际化"向"国际化"的转变。近年 来，人民币的国际接受和认可度不断提高，已成为国际货币基金组织（IMF）特别提款权（SDR）第三大权重货 币。当前，美国政府滥用关税武器，扰乱战后全球经济治理秩序，动摇美元国际信用基础，人民币国际化面临新 的机遇和挑战。 人民币国际化的新机遇 自2009年试点以来，人民币在贸易融资、国际支付、外汇储备、外汇交易中排名靠前，已经成为重要的国际化货 币。从中心—外围的国际货币体系结构看，美元是中心货币（即关键货币，vehicle currency），欧元、英镑、日 元等国际化货币为次中心货币，新兴市场和发展中国家的不可兑换、非国际化货币为外围货币。人民币正在实现 从外围货币到次中心货币的跃升。 尽管如此，人民币占比依然偏低。如2024年12月，作为第三大跨境贸易融资货币，人民币占比6.0%，与欧元6.5% 的份额相去不远，但远低于美元81.9%的份额；作为第四大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing explosive growth in the first half of 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with COMEX gold prices surpassing $3,450 per ounce, leading to a significant increase in gold ETFs as a prominent investment choice [1][3]. Market Performance - As of June 16, 2025, gold and gold stock indices have risen in tandem due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, with several ETFs tracking the SSH gold stock index showing weekly gains exceeding 7% [2]. - Year-to-date, the overall market for gold ETFs has seen an increase of 124.66%, with total market size growing from 72.608 billion yuan to 163.12 billion yuan, reflecting a robust demand for gold-related investments [1][3]. - The number of gold ETF shares has increased by 10.5 billion this year, with market size surging by 90.5 billion yuan [2]. Underlying Factors - The U.S. debt crisis has intensified concerns about the sustainability of U.S. Treasury bonds, with the fiscal gap reaching $316 billion in May 2025 and a 14% year-on-year increase in annual deficits [4]. - Central banks globally are accelerating de-dollarization, with gold purchases reaching a record high in 2024, totaling 520 tons from January to May 2025, with China, India, and Turkey leading the increases [4]. - The Federal Reserve's shift in policy, including a projected 100 basis points rate cut in 2025, has historically correlated with an average gold price increase of 22% during such cycles [4]. Investment Opportunities - Gold mining stocks are showing high earnings elasticity, with companies like Zijin Mining seeing significant EPS increases with rising gold prices [5]. - The high-end gold jewelry market in China is growing at a rate of 35%, with online sales accounting for 32% of total sales, indicating a structural change in consumer behavior [5]. - Different types of gold ETFs cater to varying risk-return profiles, with physical gold ETFs suitable for hedging against inflation and gold stock ETFs offering higher potential returns [5]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold prices is primarily driven by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, while medium-term support is expected from U.S. debt issues and central bank gold purchases [5]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization is likely to enhance gold's position in asset allocation over the long term, reflecting a broader transformation in global monetary systems and investment logic [5].

中信建投｜稳定币的本质 20250616 摘要 信用货币体系通过银行信贷扩张增加货币供应，克服了黄金供给的限制， 适应了经济增长，但也可能导致不良贷款和过度定价等问题。 现代信用货币体系的优点是克服了通缩压力，适应了财富增长，缺点是 交易透明度差、便利性不足以及票据容易贬值，跨境支付复杂。 数字货币兴起是为了应对中心化信用货币体系的缺陷，通过技术增信提 高透明度和信任度，但比特币等数字货币的局限性使其难以成为真正的 交易媒介。 稳定币旨在结合数字货币的技术优势，通过挂钩法定货币或黄金来实现 价格稳定，从而更适合成为一种广泛接受的交易载体。 稳定币在跨境交易中具有显著优势，能够享受法币的币值稳定，同时提 供数字货币的支付便利性和隐私性，降低支付成本。 美国监管机构推动稳定币的发展，旨在满足市场对数字货币便利性的需 求，同时保持金融系统的整体稳定，缓解去美元化的趋势。 稳定币发展的难点在于保持币值的稳定性，需要确保发行方购买等量且 可随时兑现的美元资产，并通过严格的信息披露和资产流动性监管来增 强市场信任。 Q&A 什么是货币的本质？ 货币的本质可以从多个角度来理解。教科书通常会告诉我们，货币具有价值尺 度、储藏 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of EU-China cooperation, highlighting the benefits of dialogue and collaboration for both parties [1][2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) aims to maintain financial and price stability, advocating for adherence to international rules recognized by both sides, including those under the World Trade Organization framework [1] - The ECB and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) have established an annual meeting mechanism to enhance cooperation in areas such as information sharing, policy communication, and technical collaboration [2] Group 2 - The ECB President noted the significant contributions of emerging industries like robotics and artificial intelligence to China's economic transformation [1] - The recent meeting between the ECB and PBOC focused on shared challenges and the importance of a stable regulatory environment to ensure financial system stability [2] - A memorandum of understanding was signed to formalize the cooperation framework between the two central banks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that rising risk aversion is driving gold prices higher, with the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) seeing significant inflows and a current scale of 1.427 billion yuan, making it the top product in the Shenzhen market [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF closely tracks Shanghai gold (SHAU.SGE) and has lower management and custody fees compared to similar products, with a management fee of 0.25% and a custody fee of 0.05% [1] - Global markets are experiencing heightened risk aversion, with gold prices reaching a new high of 3,436 USD/ounce, reflecting a 1% increase [1] Group 2 - Recent volatility in gold prices is seen as a reflection of the restructuring of the global monetary system, with driving factors shifting from inflation expectations to sovereign credit risk and global system stability [2] - The U.S. trade policy and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to influence gold price fluctuations, with potential for prices to exceed 3,500 USD if risks escalate [2] - The U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including potential military actions against Iran, are contributing to the uncertainty in the market [2]

首席点 评 ： 夜来风雨声， " 价 " 落知多少 金十数据 6 月 13 日讯，以色列防长卡茨：在以色列对伊朗发动袭击之后，预计在不久的将来会有针对 以色列及其平民的导弹和无人机袭击。 2 ）国内新闻 商务部发布公告称，根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》的规定， 2024 年 6 月 17 日，商务部发布 2024 年第 23 号公告，决定对原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品进行反倾销立案调查。鉴于本案情 况复杂，根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》第二十六条的规定，商务部决定将本案的调查期限延长至 2025 年 12 月 16 日。 3 ）行业新闻 中方愿同欧央行在国际货币体系改革等方面加强合作。美国 5 月 PPI 与核心 PPI 均环比温和增长 0.1% 、低于预期，核心 PPI 增速创近一年新低，美联储年内两次降息预期升温。贝森特首次称 "7 月 9 日关 税大限 " 可延期。美国宣布 23 日起对钢制家电加征关税，洗衣机冰箱在列。特朗普推翻加州电动车强 制令。以汽车换农业，美英谈判关键细节马上揭晓。美国上周首次申请失业救济人数略高预期，续请救 济人数飙升至 2021 年底来最高。一架印度航空波音 787 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and the European Central Bank held their first annual meeting, establishing a mechanism for future meetings and enhancing cooperation in information sharing and policy communication [2][2][2] - The Chinese government is promoting the integration of financial sectors across the Taiwan Strait, supporting the innovation and upgrade of the "Taiwan-funded board" to facilitate more quality Taiwanese enterprises to list in mainland China [2][2] - The Chinese government has approved a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth export licenses, emphasizing its commitment to responsible management of exports [2][2] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on various steel household appliances starting June 23, which may lead to increased consumer prices [3][3] - Xinhua Insurance plans to invest up to 15 billion yuan in a private equity fund, which has been approved by the company's board [7][7] - China Power Construction Company has won a 10.77 billion yuan EPC contract for offshore wind power projects [7][7]

Group 1 - Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed willingness to strengthen cooperation with the European Central Bank on international monetary system reforms, emphasizing China's proactive macro policies to boost domestic demand and consumption [1] - The Chinese government is committed to expanding openness and sharing development opportunities with other countries [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Foreign Ministry and Ministry of Commerce responded to claims by Trump regarding an agreement on rare earth exports, emphasizing the importance of mutual compliance with the consensus reached by the leaders of both nations [2] - China is reviewing export license applications for rare earths and has approved a certain number of compliant applications, indicating a responsible approach to international trade [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced measures to enhance financial support for cross-strait integration development, including pilot programs for cross-border trade and investment facilitation [3] - The measures aim to innovate social capital cooperation and encourage Taiwanese enterprises to participate in the mainland's financial market [3] Group 4 - Ant Group's international division plans to apply for a stablecoin issuer license in Hong Kong, indicating a growing interest in the stablecoin market [4] - The company is accelerating investments and collaborations in global treasury management, focusing on AI, blockchain, and stablecoin innovations [4] Group 5 - The banking sector saw significant activity, with several banks reaching historical highs, indicating strong investor interest [7] - The pharmaceutical sector also emerged as a key area for new high stocks, with a notable percentage of stocks achieving record highs [7] Group 6 - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with Boeing shares dropping over 4% following a tragic incident involving an Indian Airlines aircraft [8][9] - The UK economy reported its most severe contraction in 18 months, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [10][11] Group 7 - The Guangxi government announced a plan to support the replacement of old vehicles and home appliances, expanding the scope of subsidies for various consumer goods [13] - Investment opportunities are identified in the white goods sector, with companies like Haier, Midea, and Gree being highlighted for their growth potential [14]

智通财经6月12日电，据央行网站消息，央行行长潘功胜11日与欧洲中央银行行长拉加德举行中欧央行 行长首次年度会晤，双方围绕中欧经济金融形势、国际货币体系改革、全球金融监管以及中欧央行重点 合作领域等议题深入交换意见。会后，双方签署了《中国人民银行和欧洲中央银行合作谅解备忘录》， 明确建立中欧央行行长年度会晤机制，并在信息共享、政策沟通和技术合作等方面进一步完善合作框 架。潘功胜表示，中国坚持以高水平开放推动高质量发展，愿与包括欧盟在内的各经济体加强协调与合 作，携手应对全球性挑战。中国人民银行愿继续深化与欧洲中央银行的交流合作，将行长年度会晤机制 打造为双方加强政策沟通的重要平台，推动中欧央行合作不断迈上新台阶。 央行行长潘功胜与欧洲中央银行行长拉加德举行中欧央行行长首次年度会晤 ...