证券研究报告 · 宏观报告 · 宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250711 房地产对中国经济的影响已明显减弱 ■ 理性看待经济动能转换过程中地产的负增长 ■ 宏观视角:地产投资对经济增长的影响已明显减弱 > 其一,从经济增长的角度,尽管过去几年地产投资维持着 10%的负增 长,但我国经济总量维持着平稳增长,且地产投资对经济增长的影响在 逐步减弱。从直接影响来看,今年一季度我国房地产开发投资累计同比 ） 乐吴让莽 2025年07月11日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书:S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书:S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘子博 执业证书:S0600524120014 liuzb(@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延 后至9月》 2025-07-06 《政府债融资多增或推升 6月社融增 增速录得-9.9%,较去年全年的-10.6%小幅收窄,对经济增长的影响也由 去年全年的-0.9%降至了-0.7%;从间接影响来看,一方面,地产及其拉 动相关行业的增加值占 GDP ...

作为国内高端过程装备制造领域的重要企业，科新机电主营业务覆盖核电军工、石油炼化、天然气化工 等领域。2024年年报显示，公司高端过程装备制造业收入占比达99.03%。此次业绩预告中特别提及的 光伏设备应收账款问题，反映出新能源业务板块的波动性风险正在显现。 科新机电2025年一季度实现总营收3.28亿元，同比增长18.96%。成本端营业成本2.30亿元，同比增长 21.64%，费用等成本3130.68万元，同比增长3.39%。营业总收入扣除营业成本和各项费用后，归母净利 润4828.37万元，同比增长1.42%。一季度净利润虽同比微增1.42%，但环比2024年四季度下降约15%。 半年报预告数据意味着二季度单季净利润仅172万至672万元，环比骤降86%-96%。 报告期内，非经常性损益对归属于上市公司股东的净利润的影响金额约为374万元。 7月10日晚间，四川科新机电股份有限公司（以下简称"科新机电"或"公司"）发布2025年半年度业绩预 告。公司预计半年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润约5000万元-5500万元，比上年同期下降 43.29%-48.44%，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润约4626万元-5126 ...

提问 如何理解配置先行？ 唐军 配置先行是相对过去大家比较熟知的、从选人角度出发来做FOF投资的一种理念。配置先行的意思 是，我们先要有自己的配置框架、配置观点，然后去选择符合我们配置观点的基金经理或基金产品。 提问 做"配置先行"需要什么能力？ 截至2025年6月30日，由唐军管理的中泰天择稳健6个月持有A近2年、近1年的排名分别为3/135、2/179 （数据来源：国泰海通证券，产品分类为普通FOF低仓位）， 但我们今天更希望向您呈现的，是这位基 金经理的投资框架。 提问 用一句话来介绍，你会怎么说？ 唐军 我是一个配置先行的FOF基金经理，就是通过自上而下的配置，以FOF这种形式，希望能给投资者带 来更稳健、更高的收益风险比的投资回报。 唐军 一是要有一个相对独立或者客观的配置的 分析框架 ，这样才能有比较独立的配置观点。 二要有选择最优的配置工具来实现配置观点的能力，这就是通常所说的 优选基金的能力 。 三是要有严格的、科学的 风险预算框架 。很多人理解做配置就是对资产进行择时，这个通俗的理解其实 也没错，但择时的胜率不会很高，所以它需要有严格的风险控制，或者说在风险预算的框架体系下，我们 才能够使资 ...

2025 年 7 月 11 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、工业硅、多晶硅期货将震荡偏 强 螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃期货将偏强震荡 原油期货 将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 4000 和 4028 点，支撑位 3972 和 3952 点；IH2509 阻力位 2765 和 2780 点，支撑位 2740 和 2724 点；IC2509 阻力位 5900 和 5960 点，支撑位 5850 和 5823 点；IM250 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing savings behavior of young people in China, particularly in the context of low interest rates and the search for better investment alternatives. It highlights a shift towards increased savings and a preference for low to medium-risk investments among younger generations [4][5][35]. Group 1: Savings Trends - In a recent survey, approximately 30% of respondents reported savings exceeding 500,000 yuan, with 12.3% of the post-2000 generation having savings over 300,000 yuan [6][8]. - The median savings amount reported in the survey is between 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, with the post-1985 generation showing the highest proportion of savings over 300,000 yuan [12][10]. - The survey indicates that 38.8% of respondents save more than half of their monthly salary, with a significant portion of the younger generation planning to increase their savings rate in the future [19][21]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - Respondents showed a preference for bank deposits, money market funds, and bonds, with younger individuals favoring more liquid options like money market funds due to their accessibility and slightly higher returns [14][27]. - Higher income individuals tend to diversify their investments more, with those earning over 500,000 yuan selecting an average of 3.6 investment options compared to 2.6 for those earning under 100,000 yuan [17][25]. - The article notes a trend where younger generations are more inclined to increase low to medium-risk investments, while older generations are more likely to reduce consumption, particularly in discretionary spending [25][35]. Group 3: Economic Context - The article references macroeconomic data showing that household savings in China increased by 8.3 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, with a record high of 74.29% of household deposits being time deposits [22][27]. - The current interest rates for one-year fixed deposits have dropped to 0.95%, prompting individuals to seek higher returns through alternative savings and investment methods [30][27]. - The article suggests that the cautious approach to savings and investments among young people is influenced by their experiences and expectations shaped by economic conditions [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The event on July 8, 2023, marked the 13th National Insurance Publicity Day, focusing on the theme "Love and Responsibility, Insurance Makes Life Better" to enhance public awareness of insurance and financial literacy [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was organized by the China Insurance Industry Association and aimed to promote insurance services and financial knowledge in rural areas, specifically in Jiuji Village, Zibo City [1][3] - Activities included setting up service consultation booths, hanging promotional banners, and distributing informative materials to educate villagers about insurance [3] Group 2: Financial Knowledge Promotion - The event emphasized the core values of insurance, including risk protection, economic compensation, and life stability, particularly focusing on health and pension insurance products relevant to villagers [3][5] - Financial literacy was promoted using simple language and relatable examples, covering basic financial concepts, savings, and rational investment ideas to help villagers manage their finances effectively [5] Group 3: Risk Prevention and Awareness - A special segment on fraud prevention was included, addressing common scams in rural areas, especially targeting the elderly, and providing tips on recognizing and avoiding such scams [5] - The event highlighted the dangers of the "agent refund" black market, warning villagers about potential loss of coverage and financial harm, and encouraged them to consult official channels for insurance matters [5][7] Group 4: Community Impact and Future Plans - The initiative fostered a better understanding of insurance functions and financial risk awareness among villagers, contributing to a supportive environment for financial literacy [7] - The company plans to continue its efforts in grassroots engagement, aiming to enhance public financial literacy and support local economic development and rural revitalization [7]

美股投资长期以来备受关注，吸引着众多投资者投身其中。对于有意参与美股投资的人来说，清晰了解 入门相关事宜至关重要。 了解美股市场基础概况 美股市场包括纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克股票市场等主要交易场所。纽约证券交易所历史悠久且上市标 准严格，众多传统大型企业在此挂牌，例如一些知名的金融企业、工业巨头等。而纳斯达克股票市场则 以科技创新企业为导向，许多新兴科技公司选择在此上市。这些市场交易时间一般是美国东部时间周一 至周五上午9：30至下午4：00，对应的北京时间通常是在晚上，这意味着投资者大多需要在夜间关注市 场动态进行交易操作 。不同交易所对于上市公司资质、信息披露等方面有着不同规则和要求。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界作为一家在金融领域深耕多年的媒体机构，专注于为 广大投资者和金融从业者提供全面且专业的金融信息服务。一直秉持客观、准确、及时原则，拥有强大 专业团队，精心筛选分析各类金融信息，为用户呈现清晰准确的行业动态和投资知识。 免责声明： 本文内容根据公开信息整理生成，不代表发布者及其关联方的官方立场或观点，亦不构成任何形式的投 资建议。请您对文中关键信息进行独立核实，自主决策并承担相应风 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 产油国大幅增产，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 核心逻辑：由于中东地缘风险仍旧存在，原油溢价有所提升。在经历前期大幅回落以后，油市多头 信心再度增强，地缘溢价有所反弹。随着北半球夏季用油旺季到来，原油需求因子发力。不过近期 OPEC 和非 OPEC 产油国中的 8 个主要产油国决定 8 月增产 54.8 万桶/日 ...

华夏时报记者黄敏璇胡梦然深圳报道 上市14年、去年业绩首亏的光韵达（300227）(300227.SZ)正在寻求跨界并购。 日前，光韵达公告，公司拟以3.52亿元收购深圳市亿联无限科技有限公司(下称"亿联无限")56.03%股 权，取得标的公司控制权，以此切入通信设备制造领域。 值得注意的是，亿联无限曾在2023年6月冲刺创业板IPO，但在2024年3月突然撤回。IPO折戟后的亿联 无限业绩暴跌，2024年净利润2867万元，相比2023年6201万元降幅超半。此外，公司还存在二股东涉案 和子公司土地退回导致损失等多重风险。 光韵达今年4月就曾公告收购亿联无限的意向协议，彼时收购股权比例为100%，如今降至56.03%。收购 股权比例大幅降低基于哪些考虑？光韵达方面7月10日回复《华夏时报》记者表示："本次收购的一部分 资金会考虑使用并购贷款解决，因此由收购全部股权调整为部分股权可以降低公司财务费用规模。同时 考虑到亿联无限过去两年业绩略有下滑，公司通过分步收购，可以降低标的公司经营不确定性带来的影 响，降低收购带来的商誉等风险。故经过双方友好协商，决定降低收购比例。" 标的公司IPO折戟，净利润腰斩 公告显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Zhao Peng, a senior executive at Dajia Insurance Group, highlights significant governance challenges within financial risk management institutions, following the earlier case of Fu Fei, another executive involved in similar misconduct [1][4]. Group 1: Zhao Peng Incident - Zhao Peng, previously a prominent figure in the financial sector, is under investigation for alleged misconduct in deposit operations, including manipulating fund flows and accepting kickbacks [6][4]. - His background includes a law doctorate and roles in regulatory bodies, raising concerns about the integrity of regulatory oversight [4][5]. - As of July 2025, there have been no official updates regarding the investigation's progress, and Zhao remains unaccounted for [1]. Group 2: Fu Fei Case - Fu Fei, former deputy head of the Anbang takeover team, was convicted for corruption, including transferring assets below market value and accepting bribes [2][3]. - The court found that he misused his position to facilitate transactions that benefited specific companies, leading to significant financial losses [2]. Group 3: Governance and Oversight Issues - The dual compensation structure for Zhao Peng, who held positions in both banking and insurance, raises concerns about conflicts of interest and inadequate oversight mechanisms [8][9]. - The transition of regulatory figures into operational roles has exposed weaknesses in self-regulation and market accountability [10][11][12]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - In April 2025, the Insurance Guarantee Fund implemented measures to enhance oversight, including appointing a special supervisory group to review major financial decisions [13]. - New regulations introduced by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission aim to address systemic risks and improve governance structures [20][21]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Challenges - Dajia Insurance has faced significant operational challenges, including a six-year gap in annual report disclosures and a high vacancy rate in its healthcare services [16][14]. - Despite some positive indicators in premium income and profitability, the company struggles with investment performance, showing negative returns on certain funds [18]. Group 6: Market Position and Future Outlook - Dajia Insurance's privatization efforts have stalled, with previous attempts to transfer ownership failing and ongoing discussions yielding no substantial results [22][23]. - The company must address historical liabilities and governance issues to attract potential investors and ensure a successful transition to a more robust governance framework [23].