Well, as you know by now, there is no official jobs report today because of the government shutdown. But we found another way to try and get a look at employment in the month of September. We're going to call this our own squawk survey.Evans S is the CEO of Aura Intelligence. That's a platform for workforce analytics. Bill Dunlberg is the chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses.Both have real data on the state of jobs in this country. And of course, we have our very own senior e ...

The US banking system’s reserves, a key factor in the Fed's decision to keep shrinking its balance sheet, tumbled for the eighth straight week to a new mark below $3 trillion https://t.co/FG8cGzex5k ...

The Supreme Court provided the most meaningful check to date on President Trump’s effort to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook when it said she could remain in her job until it takes up her case in January https://t.co/JrDJrdO7sR ...

Supreme Court lets Lisa Cook stay at Federal Reserve for now https://t.co/kT83IjYgP1 ...

We are back with some breaking news on President Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The Supreme Court is allowing Cook to stay on the job, at least temporarily, while the legal fight plays out. The justices have agreed to hear oral arguments on this issue in January, adding another highstakes case to what is shaping up to be another consequential term. ...

Supreme Court agrees to hear arguments on whether President Trump can temporarily fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reservehttps://t.co/YxEW9Kgavg ...

Breaking: The Supreme Court allowed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to keep her job for now. It will hear arguments in January on President Trump’s bid to fire her. https://t.co/ygKalkdL8z ...

The US Supreme Court refused to allow President Donald Trump to immediately oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook while she sues to keep her job https://t.co/JQi8LqnGrr ...

US Treasuries jumped after a measure of private sector jobs plummeted, leading traders to add to bets on interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year https://t.co/ABoL8Jp7Se ...

Bond Market Reaction & Fed Policy - The long end of the curve is considered cheap based on valuation metrics, but the front end could also move if economic data weakens due to a prolonged shutdown [2] - The market is pricing in gradual Fed cuts to neutral, but a worsening economy (unemployment rate above 45%) could lead to more aggressive Fed action [2] - An independent Fed is responding to data and aiming to reduce the level of restrictiveness, making bonds attractive [6] - The Fed is expected to cut rates to 3%, which is close to neutral, even without a significant slowdown [8] Auction & Demand - End-user demand for Treasury auctions remains strong, indicating structural positives in the US economy [5] - Structural positives in the US economy, such as AI capex and strong corporate fundamentals, are driving demand for US bonds [6] - People look at 55%-6% in high-quality bonds and they like it [6] Investment Strategy & Risk Hedge - The 5 to 10-year part of the curve is considered a sweet spot, offering a balance between yield and duration risk [3][14][15] - Bonds are still considered a hedge, especially with the Fed likely to cut rates more aggressively [12][13] - Investors may diversify into other assets like gold and cryptocurrency, but US Treasuries remain a safe haven [9][10][11][12] - High-yield market can offer yields higher than 5%-6% without taking on that much duration risk [15]