Wormhole @wormhole has become core multichain infrastructure, powering $70B+ in cross-chain volume while enabling canonical, issuer-controlled assets via Native Token Transfers.Jake (@immutablejacob):.@wormhole NTT (Native Token Transfers) standard replaces fragmented wrapped assets with canonical multichain representations. NTT effectively:1. consolidates liquidity2. preserves issuer control3. simplifies risk management https://t.co/UpiFNTfLgV ...

#Bitcoin remains holding the crucial support level, after taking the liquidity beneath the recent lows.However, given that there's a lot of liquidity beneath us and a lot of time left until the Japanese Central Bank comes together, I wouldn't be surprised by a test at $83K before we reverse back upwards. ...

The Liquidity Layer is about to level up. ...

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - Gold surged by 62.6% in 2025, while oil prices fell by 21.5%, and Bitcoin ended the year down by 6.4% [1] - Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATs) invested nearly $50 billion into Bitcoin and Ethereum, controlling over 5% of the total supply by year-end [1] Group 2: Gold's Performance - Gold's outperformance was linked to a tariff-heavy environment, which increased uncertainty and weakened confidence in long-term currency stability, leading to defensive positioning [2] - Unlike growth assets, gold does not require expanding liquidity to rally; it responds to policy risk and geopolitical stress, making it a default hedge amid rising trade friction [3] Group 3: Oil's Performance - Oil prices fell due to tariffs slowing trade, compressing manufacturing activity, and reducing shipping volumes, which directly impacted energy demand [4] - Crude prices dropped by 21.5% in 2025 as supply remained ample and non-OPEC production increased, with oil behaving as a growth proxy in a cooling economic environment [4] Group 4: Bitcoin's Performance - Bitcoin's decline of 6.4% reflected a struggle between uncertainty from tariffs and drained discretionary liquidity, with U.S. inflation remaining moderate but sticky [5] - The market experienced a long consolidation phase after October's liquidation shock, with Bitcoin neither collapsing like oil nor rallying like gold [5] Group 5: Fiat Pressure and Inflation - Despite tariffs acting as a slow domestic tax, inflation remained controlled, with costs gradually absorbed by importers and retailers, which muted fiat stress in headline data [6] - This "slow burn" effect capped risk appetite without triggering panic, contributing to Bitcoin's range-bound performance [6] Group 6: Treasury Buyers' Behavior - DATs aggressively accumulated assets, spending $49.7 billion in 2025, with approximately half of this amount deployed in the second half of the year [7] - Their holdings rose to $134 billion by year-end, marking a 137% increase year over year, indicating long-term conviction and a willingness to accept volatility to secure supply [7]

Core Viewpoint - SPDR DoubleLine Short Duration Total Return Tactical ETF (STOT) focuses on capital preservation, liquidity, and steady income through an actively managed, short-maturity multi-sector bond portfolio [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes diversified exposure across securitized credit, corporates, and high-quality government instruments while managing overall interest-rate sensitivity [1] - The approach combines top-down macro views with bottom-up analysis of structure, collateral, and cash-flow durability, accepting measured credit risk where compensation appears favorable [1] - Key characteristics include lower duration than broad core benchmarks, significant securitized allocations, and a focus on cash-flow quality rather than headline yield [1] Group 2: Target Audience and Use Cases - STOT can serve as a defensive income sleeve, a cash-plus allocation for investors seeking a modest return premium over short-term vehicles, or a ballast within time-segmented buckets [1] - It is suitable for outcome-oriented advisors prioritizing stability and institutions managing liquidity-aware fixed-income tiers [1] Group 3: Performance and Market Conditions - STOT tends to perform better when rates are rising or volatile, provided credit fundamentals remain orderly, but may face challenges during abrupt spread repricings [1] - Monitoring turnover-driven costs relative to active trading is advised [1]

Core Insights - The primary issue facing crypto markets is a lack of liquidity, which hinders institutional investment despite demand [1][4] - Major deleveraging events have exacerbated the illiquidity, pushing traders out of the market faster than they can return [2][4] - The interplay between illiquidity and volatility creates a fragile market environment, deterring large institutional players from entering [4][5] Liquidity Challenges - Liquidity providers react to demand rather than create it, leading to reduced trading activity and increased volatility [3] - The thinness of the market results in a self-reinforcing cycle where illiquidity and volatility feed into each other, maintaining market fragility [4] Institutional Investment Dynamics - Institutions are unable to act as stabilizers in thin markets, which leaves no natural backstop during periods of stress [4] - Large allocators prioritize capital preservation over yield maximization, making them sensitive to liquidity risks [5][6] Market Comparisons - The notion that capital is simply rotating from crypto to artificial intelligence is challenged, as both are at different stages in their investment cycles [6]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Trends - Metaplanet has completed a bearish-to-bullish reversal after an 82% drawdown from its June highs, contrasting with MicroStrategy, which continues to struggle near lows [1] - Monero has formed a decade-long ascending triangle and is poised for higher prices, especially as the privacy-coin narrative gains traction [1] - The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a phase of institutional adoption, with major financial institutions laying the groundwork for continued involvement [10] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - President Trump's upcoming replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to initiate a rate-cutting cycle starting in the second quarter, with total Fed assets rising again after the end of quantitative tightening [3] - Following a stronger-than-expected unemployment report, market-implied rate odds for the January FOMC meeting have shifted towards a "no cut" stance, aligning with the Fed's focus on labor data [4] Group 3: Bitcoin Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, forming a double bottom pattern that could target the $100k+ region [7] - Despite a bearish cross in hash ribbons indicating potential weakness, both hashrate and hash ribbons are stabilizing, suggesting a possible inflection point [9] - Bitcoin ETF flows remain negative, with approximately $700 million in outflows reported in the past week [7] Group 4: Blockchain Ecosystem Developments - The 2025 crypto market is characterized by a widening gap between activity and price performance, with total value locked (TVL) increasing in seven of eight ecosystems covered [11][12] - Ethereum's fundamentals have strengthened despite underperformance in price, with increased TVL and stablecoin supply, while Layer 1 revenue has fallen sharply [13] - Solana has seen elevated on-chain usage and a significant expansion in stablecoin market capitalization, although price volatility continues [14] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The ratio of Solana ecosystem token volumes over SOL volumes on centralized exchanges has increased over 40%, indicating a return of risk appetite among investors [18] - Application-level monetization and institutional utility are becoming more significant in determining performance across crypto markets [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration and the Federal Reserve are perceived to be injecting significant liquidity into the financial system, raising concerns among investors about potential market flooding, despite officials' claims that they are not reinstating quantitative easing [2]. Group 1 - Investors are questioning whether the recent actions by Washington are leading to excessive liquidity in the markets [2]. - The administration's $200 billion mortgage-bond order is a focal point of this liquidity discussion [2].

Core Insights - Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG) has shown significant improvement in its balance sheet by the end of Q3 2025, with enhanced liquidity and reduced leverage due to strong cash generation and the sale of the Jack Wolfskin business [1] Financial Performance - Available liquidity increased to $1.25 billion, up nearly $400 million year-over-year, supported by higher operating cash flow and proceeds from the Jack Wolfskin sale [2] - Net debt decreased to $2.23 billion from $2.54 billion year-over-year, resulting in a reduction of net leverage to 3.8x from 4.6x [3] - REIT-adjusted leverage improved significantly to 1.4x from 2.4x, indicating reduced strain on the balance sheet [3][8] Future Outlook - Despite ongoing external pressures, particularly tariff-related cost headwinds expected to persist into 2026, the company’s stronger liquidity and lower leverage provide a more stable foundation for evaluating strategic alternatives for the Topgolf business [4] Market Performance - MODG shares have increased by 53.4% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average of 4.2% [5] - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.65, which is lower compared to industry peers like Acushnet Holdings (P/S of 1.97) and American Outdoor Brands (P/S of 0.56) [9]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 861 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 361 billion yuan after 500 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - In the previous week, the PBOC had a net withdrawal of 16,550 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a significant tightening of liquidity, while the government debt repayment pressure increased [1] - The overall liquidity environment remains loose, supported by prior fiscal spending and a decrease in funding demand post-year-end, with overnight funding rates stabilizing around 1.33% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week (January 12-16) will see a decrease in the 7-day reverse repo maturity scale to 1,387 billion yuan, with government debt net repayment dropping to -531 billion yuan, suggesting limited external disturbances to the funding environment [2] - Analysts expect the funding environment to remain stable and loose, with overnight funding rates fluctuating around 1.35% and 7-day rates around 1.50% [2] - A significant 6-month reverse repo of 6,000 billion yuan is set to mature, and the PBOC is likely to maintain incremental renewals to alleviate funding pressure as the tax period approaches [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's recent work meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to promote high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery [3] - The meeting highlighted the flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts, to ensure ample liquidity and support balanced credit growth [3][4] - Changes in policy goals were noted, shifting from "stable with a decrease" in financing costs to "operating at a low level," indicating a stronger commitment to supporting economic stability and price recovery [3][4]