Risk & Opportunity - Avoiding risks due to comfort can cost more than any failure, especially for highly skilled individuals in tech where the upside can be in the billions [5][6] - Taking risks is essential for founders to get funded, build billion-dollar companies, and change the world [5] - Missed opportunities can provide courage and knowledge for future success [15] - One risk could change one's trajectory [17] Mindset & Perception - Belief in being unlucky can lead to tunnel vision, causing one to miss opportunities [9] - Lucky people expect good things, keeping their minds open to see shortcuts and opportunities [9][10] - Setbacks should be seen as redirects and chances to discover something better [12] - Bad luck can force resourcefulness and teach lessons that comfort cannot [13] Pivoting & Resourcefulness - Lucky people pivot when faced with bad luck, seeing setbacks as opportunities for something better [12] - Bad luck forces resourcefulness and pushes individuals to new places, teaching valuable lessons [13]

Market Trends - Investors are exhibiting a strong risk-on sentiment [1] - $139 billion has been invested into levered ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) [1]

Too much cash is chasing too few deals, pushing investors deeper into risky debt https://t.co/IZAPng2qxV ...

Market & Economic Assessment - The Fed is in a difficult position, balancing inflation pressures with calls for rate cuts, while the economy grows between 2% and 3% [2][3] - Current market conditions, including high equity prices, low volatility, and tight credit spreads, are atypical for a rate-cutting cycle [3][4] - Speculative behavior is prevalent, with tight credit spreads making fixed income investments interest rate sensitive [5] - Fiscal policy is challenging, with $37 trillion in debt and a $2 trillion deficit, while the Fed maintains a $7 trillion balance sheet [7] - Inflationary pressures persist, particularly in construction costs and wages, making a return to zero rates unlikely [8] - The long end of the yield curve signals concerns about the US fiscal situation, as the 30-year Treasury yield is higher than when Fed funds were 51/8% [10][11] Investment Strategy & Risk - The administration's policies favor risk assets, but this may not be favorable for fixed income [6][24][27] - Investors should be cautious about taking on excessive risk in fixed income portfolios, particularly through high yield credit at tight spreads [6][15] - Private credit funds raise concerns, especially the push to include illiquid assets in liquid investment vehicles, echoing concerns from 2007 [15][16][18] - Meme stock activity indicates that investors are unafraid, with one penny stock accounting for 15% of stock exchange volume [20][21] - While the overall risk environment is favorable, it is susceptible to shocks, requiring careful monitoring and liquidity [26][27][25]

unpopular opinion: earning yield on your stables is not risk free money ...

Note: Phantom Perps aren't available everywhere. Trading perps involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all users. This post is not intended for UK audiences. ...

You won’t improve your situation without taking more risk. ...

Investment Strategy - Including private assets in 401(k) plans could potentially increase returns [1] - Incorporating private assets also introduces higher risk [1]

Note: Phantom Perps aren't available everywhere. Trading perps involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all users. This post is not intended for UK audiences. ...

Note: Perps aren't available everywhere. Trading perps involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all users. This post is not intended for UK audiences. ...