沙特阿拉伯将8月销往欧洲西北部的阿拉伯轻质原油售价定为较ICE布伦特升水4.65美元。 ...

【原油市场日度呈现区域性分化格局】国内SC主力合约7月3日跳涨1.63%至506.3元/桶，盘中突破前日 高点创五日新高。 国际油价WTI和Brent分别微跌0.52%和0.43%。SC对Brent溢价从2.45美元连续五个扩 大至1.85美元，较前日0.36美元价差非对称性走阔，SC - WTI溢价激增77.78%至3.52美元，反映亚太地 区炼厂原料采购意愿增强。 近月合约升水结构持续强化，SC连1 - 连3价差从前日15.6元走阔至17.8元， 创四个月新高，印证现货端供应偏紧格局。 OPEC+宣布连续三个月执行120万桶/日增产计划，但巴克 莱报告显示产油国剩余产能不足恐制约实际增量，委内瑞拉、尼日利亚等国设备老化使协议执行率存 疑。 需求端获超预期支撑，美国炼厂开工率维持93%高位水平，巴克莱上调今夏石油需求增速预期至 13万桶/日，柴油裂解价差扩大至28美元/桶显示工业用能需求坚挺。 美越达成LNG贸易协议促使亚太能 源供应链重组，越南原油进口量可能缩减转而加大天然气采购，间接影响亚太地区轻质原油市场平衡。 美国商业原油库存降至3.8亿桶的五年均值下方，库欣交割库周度累库速度放缓至日均25万桶。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for specific companies within the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - OPEC has announced an unexpected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, but the actual impact of this increase remains to be observed [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $68.3 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.78% [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show varied trends [4][47]. - The polyester sector is facing profitability challenges, but there are expectations for recovery as supply and demand improve [4][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - OPEC's actual production increase has been lower than expected, with April's total production at approximately 31.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels from the previous month [4][8]. - The U.S. oil rig count decreased to 539, down 8 from the previous week and down 46 year-on-year [31][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to stabilize at mid-high levels due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [4][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $14.01 per barrel, down $2.46 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $22.37 per barrel, up $0.53 from the previous week, with a historical average of $24.86 per barrel [56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels [4][47]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has seen a decline, with the average price in East China at 4,971.4 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week [4][13]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the polyester industry, with expectations for improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics shift positively [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][13]. - It also suggests that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with high capital expenditure expected to continue, particularly for offshore oil service companies [4][13].

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·首席分析师、能源化工组行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年7月6日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：逢低布多，三季度或 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 仍有机会挑战80美元 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 我们的逻辑： ◆撇开地缘、贸易战两大不确定性，三季度中上 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | 进出口 | | | 炼厂开工 | 国内外燃料油需求数据 | 全球燃料油现货库存 | 亚太区域现货FOB价格 | 国内燃料油进出口数据 | | | 全球炼厂检修 | | | 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 | 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | 国内炼厂产量与商品量 | | | 美国地区燃料油现货价格 | 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | | | | 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油裂解价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油纸货月差 | | Special report on Guota ...

本周末，OPEC+可能宣布从8月开始继续增加41.4万桶/日的原油产量，旨在夺回失去的全球市场份额。 此举将使得投资者对原油供应过剩的担忧加剧，对油价上涨不利。7月5日据消息人士透露，欧佩克+考 虑在八月份将石油产量增加约55万桶/日，高于七月、六月和五月的41.1万桶/日。OPEC+继续提高原油 产量，供应持续增加，但当前处于美国夏季出游旺季，原油需求旺盛，多空因素同时存在。原油本周表 现为震荡，对比上周后三天的走势，震荡区间上移，最高触及67.50美元的位置，但上涨势头依然不明 显，保持震荡的概率大。MACD动能柱趋于平稳，RSI指标位于中性区域附近，显示短线动能不足，多 空分歧加剧。若后续能有效突破67.5美元，将打开上行通道测试69.3美元一线；反之若跌破65.2美元支 撑，可能回撤至前低62.0美元附近。上方关注67.5美元的阻力，突破可能上冲至69.3附近；下方重点关 注65.2附近的支撑，破位可能试探64.0-62.0前低！综合分析：开盘个人建议高空为主，低多为辅！WTI 分水岭：65.2美元/桶！现停盘报价：66.4一线 现货黄金： 本周金价攀升，主要受美国总统特朗普力推的大规模减税与支出法案 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ is accelerating the restart of idle production capacity, agreeing to an unexpected increase of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August, exceeding market expectations of 411,000 bpd [1] - This increase reflects a significant policy shift for OPEC+, which has been gradually withdrawing a total of 2.2 million bpd in production cuts since April, with the current increase contributing to 62% of the targeted recovery [1][2] - The eight participating member countries include Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria, with a total announced or implemented production increase of 1.37 million bpd as of July [1] Group 2 - The acceleration of production increases is partly due to some OPEC+ members, like Kazakhstan, exceeding their quota limits, causing dissatisfaction among those adhering to the production cuts [2] - OPEC+ is responding to increasing supply competition from other oil-producing countries, such as the United States, aiming to expand its market share in this competitive environment [2] - The International Energy Agency predicts a "considerable supply surplus" later this year, with institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs forecasting oil prices to drop to $60 per barrel or lower in the fourth quarter [5]

洲际交易所：布伦特原油投机者在截至7月1日的一周内将净多头头寸减少25,881手，至166,717手。 布伦特原油 ...

交易商表示，8月份交付给印度的俄罗斯乌拉尔原油价格较即期布伦特原油价格低1.70至2美元/桶，这 是自2022年以来的最小折扣。 布伦特原油 ...

智通财经7月4日电，调查显示，欧佩克6月原油产量较5月增加27万桶/日，达到2702万桶/日。 ...