2025 年 6 月 3 日 生猪：去库启动，远端预期转强 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 5 月中下旬量价表现印证被动累库发生，近期二次育肥群体担忧后期二育政策限制，月底提前集中入 场，加速累库进度，6 月进入加速降重及去库阶段，关注前期二育压栏生猪进入亏损阶段后的决策，去库 至底部的时间点仍有不确定性，7 月及 9 月合约均将交易去库逻辑；多家企业公布禁止出售二育政策，去 库加速利于远端预期修复，若单头均重下降 10KG，对应四季度同基础存栏的猪肉供应下降 6-8%，1 月合约 为春节前纯旺季合约，较三季度消费增量超 30%，将进行重置估值，盘面也进入流动性增强阶段，预期转 强，注意止盈止损。短期 LH2509 合约支撑位 13500 元/吨，压力位 15000 元/吨 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 资料 ...

早盘收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，20号胶、合成橡胶跌超3%，焦煤跌近3%，硅铁跌超2%，玻璃 跌2%，涨幅方面，SC原油涨近3%，沥青、低硫燃料油（LU）、沪银、氧化铝涨超2%。 ...

午盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，焦煤跌超5%，燃油、20号胶跌超4%，低硫燃料油（LU）、橡 胶跌超3%，SC原油、沪锡跌近3%；涨幅方面，菜粕、多晶硅、碳酸锂、沪镍涨超1%，鸡蛋涨近1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The listing of the "Shanghai Natural Rubber Futures" contract on the Osaka Exchange (OSE) marks a significant milestone in the deepening cooperation between China and Japan's capital markets, facilitating the global service of "Chinese prices" [1][2]. Group 1: Contract Details - The first batch of listed contracts includes three monthly contracts expiring in September 2025, January 2026, and May 2026, with a total trading volume of 322 lots and an open interest of 152 lots on the first trading day [1]. - The contract is designed to use the settlement price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) natural rubber futures in Renminbi as the cash settlement benchmark, multiplied by 100 Japanese Yen, eliminating currency conversion and tax deductions [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The collaboration is seen as a practical measure for the high-level opening of China's futures market, providing richer risk management options for global rubber industry chain enterprises [2]. - The OSE CEO highlighted that this contract combines Japan's diverse hedging tools with China's robust growth advantages, broadening hedging channels for Japanese industry clients and global investors [2]. Group 3: Industry Response - Notable rubber producers such as Lianrun Rubber and Shidong Rubber expressed that the direct linkage to "Shanghai rubber" prices and the convenient cash settlement method provide new pathways for risk management and asset allocation in international trade [2]. - Several international investment institutions plan to actively participate in the new contract to achieve cross-market resource integration [2].

夜盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，纸浆涨近2%，沪镍涨超1%，沪金、20号胶、甲醇涨近1%。跌 幅方面，燃油跌近2%，低硫燃料油（LU）、焦煤、沥青跌超1%。 ...

据美国纽约联储数据，上个交易日（5月27日）担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）报4.31%，之前一天报 4.26%。 上个交易日有效的联邦基金利率报4.33%，之前一天报4.33%。 2025年6月SOFR期货的未平仓合约连续第三个交易日大幅增长，上周四增加260万美元/DV01、上周五 增加大约99.5万美元/DV01、（继周一休市之后）周二增加大约76.0万美元/DV01，这三天新增大约17.4 万合约，使得未平仓合约总量略低于140万，创当前周期的新高。 ...

大商所：2025年端午节休市期间，各品种 期货合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金水平保持不变。请各会 员单位做好对客户的风险提示工作，加强市场风险防范，确保市场平稳运行。 ...

午盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，苹果涨超1%，棕榈油、菜粕、棉纱涨近1%。跌幅方面，集运 指数（欧线）、20号胶、橡胶跌超4%，丁二烯橡胶、沪锡跌超3%，工业硅、红枣、焦煤、沪镍、纯碱 跌超2%。 ...

午盘收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。集运欧线涨超2%，纸浆涨超1%；跌幅方面，焦煤跌超4%，丁 二烯橡胶、锰硅跌超3%，液化石油气（LPG）、橡胶、烧碱、纯碱、氧化铝、SC原油跌超2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Osaka Exchange (OSE) will launch Shanghai natural rubber futures contracts on May 26, 2025, providing a new hedging tool for global participants and enhancing market collaboration [1][2] Group 1: Contract Specifications - The new contract will be based on the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber futures prices, denominated in Japanese yen, and will utilize a cash settlement model [1] - The contract will target the most active trading months of January, May, and September from the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] - Trading hours will be from 9:00 to 15:45 and 17:00 to 19:00 Tokyo time, with the day session starting one hour earlier and the night session five hours earlier than the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] - The contract unit will be measured in index points rather than tons, with a minimum price fluctuation of 5 points and a contract value calculated as contract points multiplied by 100 yen [1] - The price limit will be set at ±10%, higher than the Shanghai Futures Exchange's ±6% limit [1] Group 2: Market Strategy and Support - OSE aims to provide an effective hedging tool for participants managing rubber price volatility, particularly those holding rubber inventory in China or trading rubber-related products in RMB [2] - To ensure successful listing, OSE is focusing on market access and liquidity, with several major brokers and market makers already prepared to support the new contract [2] - At least seven market makers have registered to provide continuous buy and sell quotes to facilitate smooth trading [2] - OSE will waive trading and clearing fees for the Shanghai natural rubber futures contract until the end of December 2025 to attract more investors [2] - OSE expresses the expectation that the new contract will inject innovative tools into the global rubber market, enhancing supply chain resilience and promoting industry growth [2]