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【金十访谈间】关税战“休兵”,黄金跌穿3200美元,会回调到哪?鲍威尔即将亮相,美元或酝酿反弹……Sasa联手嘉盛资深分析师Jerry实时分析中,点击观看直播>>>
news flash· 2025-05-15 12:19
金十访谈间关税战"休兵",黄金跌穿3200美元,会回调到哪?鲍威尔即将亮相,美元或酝酿反弹…… Sasa联手嘉盛资深分析师Jerry实时分析中,点击观看直播>>> 相关链接 ...
黄金能稳住吗?
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-15 11:25
风险性资产在下跌,避险性资产也在下跌,现在看起来是全品类资产都在下跌。这到底是怎么回事呢? 一定程度上,这说明现在市场资金的想法比较混乱,各方观点差距很大,共识度很低,很难在某个单独 方向上堆积资金形成突破。在这种状况下,我们该如何理解目前所处的位置呢?海外市场现在还有没有 支撑力?跟海外市场连接紧密的中国香港市场有没有支撑力呢? 先说一下结论。个人认为,短期内支撑力还是存在的。一个大的主脉络是,海外市场虽然经历了大幅反 弹,尤其是美国股票市场中的科技股反弹非常亮眼,但有一个遗憾。在所有美国资产品类中,一个关键 市场——美国国债市场,警报仍未解除。昨天晚上大家也看到了,美国国债市场仍然被重压向下。它现 在的价格水平相当于什么时候呢?相当于4月2日关税刚刚出台时的水平。所以,这个警报不仅没有解 除,实际上还一直在闪烁。 如有疑问请以音频内容为准,添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302,入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明:五星重磅,四星重要,三星级以下大家选择听。 1、市场再度回踩,海外修复结束了吗? 今天全球市场都出现了一定程度的混乱回调。为什么说它"混乱"呢?因为风险性股票市场出现了回调, 全亚洲 ...
投顾观市:突破后回调,下跌空间大吗?
He Xun Cai Jing· 2025-05-15 10:34
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent market volume increase indicates the entry of counterparty funds, suggesting a potential short-term pullback by the main funds before further upward movement to new highs [1] - The market experienced a volume decrease today, indicating that selling pressure is not significant, and large declines are unlikely, suggesting investors should not panic [1] - The ChiNext 50 index reached a peak with maximum trading volume, indicating that despite a pullback, it is expected to continue rising to new highs [1] Group 2 - The current market is in a "volatile upward mode," which is generally more favorable than a "one-sided upward mode," as it allows for better digestion of profit-taking and trapped positions [2] - For medium to long-term positions, it is advisable to hold due to low cost bases, while short-term trading may be challenging due to volatility [2] - Two support levels are identified at 3350 points and 3300 points, with 3300 points being more significant as it represents a platform for main fund accumulation [2]
黄金亚盘加速下跌,空头逼近3100整数大关!短线回调是否见底?反弹能否继续追空?立即观看超V推荐官Jason的分析,马上进入直播间>>>
news flash· 2025-05-15 08:44
黄金亚盘加速下跌,空头逼近3100整数大关!短线回调是否见底?反弹能否继续追空?立即观看超V推 荐官Jason的分析,马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 ...
债市没有大幅回调基础
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-14 10:41
请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 债市没有大幅回调基础 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 5 月 12 日《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布,中美贸易领域取得实质性进展,当日 债市熊陡。资金面二季度边际转宽,财政存款释放和实体信贷偏弱共同利好资金面,银行负债 压力缓解;滚动套息策略的收益确定性较强,或吸引理财、货基等广义基金维持净买入,短债 品种难以大幅回调。短端难以趋势上行背景下,长端继续回调意味着利率曲线进一步熊陡,而 这需要基本面的趋势性恢复。二季度以来实际利率受物价影响仍承压,或给基本面带来压力。 银行存款利率可能迎来新一轮调降,或带来广谱利率进一步下降,通过比价效应利好国债。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 SAC:S0490524080003 SFC:BVN394 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 债市没有大幅回调基础 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 5 月 12 日《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布,中美双方关税 ...
和讯投顾高璐明:利好滞涨!会大跌吗?要不要跑?
He Xun Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 11:33
Core Viewpoint - The market is showing signs of weakness despite not having a clear top signal, indicating potential short-term adjustment risks [1][2] Group 1: Market Signals - The willingness of major funds to buy has started to decline, with noticeable distribution and high selling during the early trading session, suggesting increased pressure for a short-term market pullback [1] - Rapid rotation among market sectors is observed, with key sectors like military and brokerage showing weakness after previously strong performances, indicating a lack of support from large funds [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Although the market remains above the 5-day moving average, the gap created after today's jump may lead to a pullback towards the 5-day moving average, further increasing short-term market adjustment pressure [2] - A weak signal has been given today, and without significant positive news tomorrow, a short-term market pullback is likely [2]
贸易战火药味淡化黄金惊人暴跌
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-13 02:15
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in spot gold prices, with a drop of 88.66 USD or 2.67% to close at 3235.39 USD/oz on May 12, following a peak of 3324.73 USD/oz and a low of 3207.39 USD/oz during the day [1][3] - The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that as of May 12, gold ETF holdings increased by 1.15 tons to 939.09 tons, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - The recent increase in gold ETF holdings suggests a rise in buying interest, indicating a growing bullish sentiment towards gold, while a decrease would imply increased selling pressure [2] Group 2 - The article highlights that gold is being tested as a "hero in troubled times," with a previous surge of 8% in a single week when the Trump administration announced comprehensive tariffs, pushing gold prices to a historical high of 3500 USD [2] - The dollar index surged by 1.5% to surpass the 101 mark, reaching a near two-month high of 101.97, which negatively impacted gold prices by making it more expensive for overseas buyers and reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets due to rising U.S. Treasury yields [2] - The analysis of the previous trading day indicates that gold opened lower at 3288.7 USD and experienced a strong pullback after reaching a high of 3327.2 USD, with a final close at 3235.39 USD, suggesting ongoing downward pressure and potential targets for further declines [3]
加拿大失业率继续攀升 美元/加元仍有上行空间
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-12 03:50
然而,美联储(Fed)官员已对潜在的滞胀表示担忧。行长迈克尔·巴尔警告称,提高关税可能会扰乱供 应链。 从日线图来看,布林带显示,美元兑加元汇率已经从上轨1.4186回落,但仍处于中轨1.3909附近,表明 上行趋势并未完全结束。 MACD指标显示,DIFF线与DEA线目前交叉向上,MACD柱状图由负转正,表明短期动能正在积累, 有利于美元对加元汇率反弹。同时,RSI指标处于48附近的中性区域,并没有出现明显的超买或超卖信 号,这意味着汇价仍有进一步上行的空间。 值得注意的是,CCI指标近期从超卖区域(-130)急速反弹至目前的190.8837水平,已经进入超买区域,这 可能预示短期内存在回调风险。 周一(5月12日)亚市盘中,加拿大劳动力市场数据公布后,美元/加元升至接近1.3920。加拿大失业率 以快于预期的速度加速上升至6.9%。美元兑加元正试图连续第四个交易日保持其位置,美元/加元徘徊 在1.3940左右。该货币对得到支持,因为随着周末在瑞士举行的美中贸易谈判取得进展,美元(USD) 走强。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特将与中国官员在日内瓦进行的为期两天的会谈描述为富有成效,预计将在 周一上午的简报中公 ...
美联储理事库格勒:零售销售显示出一些提前消费的迹象,未来消费者支出可能会出现一定程度的回调。
news flash· 2025-05-09 11:27
美联储理事库格勒:零售销售显示出一些提前消费的迹象,未来消费者支出可能会出现一定程度的回 调。 ...
均线多头排列 大盘回调就是机会
Chang Sha Wan Bao· 2025-05-09 09:24
Market Overview - On May 9, A-shares saw a collective decline in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.30% to 3342.00 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.69% to 10126.83 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.87% to 2011.77 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 11,920 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,014 billion yuan compared to May 8 [1] - Despite the overall market downturn, there were gains in sectors such as banking, beauty care, textiles and apparel, and jewelry, while sectors like semiconductors, commercial retail, transportation equipment, internet services, mining, and software development faced significant declines [1] Trade Data - The General Administration of Customs reported that China's total goods trade value for the first four months was 14.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a stable growth trend with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1] - Exports amounted to 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, while imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2% [1] Technology Sector - The technology sector experienced significant declines, primarily due to disappointing quarterly results from SMIC, which reported Q1 revenue of 16.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, and a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, up 166.5% [2] - SMIC's forecast for Q2 indicates a revenue decline of 4% to 6%, highlighting the substantial impact of tariffs on its performance [2] Local Stock Performance - In Hunan stocks, only 33 out of 146 stocks rose, with Huasheng Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit [3] - Huasheng's main business includes the production and sale of hemp textiles and foreign trade, reporting Q1 revenue of 214 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.45%, but a net loss of 12.5023 million yuan [3] - The company attributed its stock performance to its foreign trade operations, leveraging international e-commerce platforms, with 79.75% of its revenue coming from overseas in 2024 [3]