美联储威廉姆斯：预计经济增长将大幅放缓，通胀和失业率将更高。 ...

美联储的威廉姆斯：贸易政策将增加经济增长放缓的风险。 ...

此前七次出现红色信号后，标普500指数在未来12个月平均下跌5.6%。当前红色周期是该模型自2022年2月以来首次发出看跌信号——当时市场对美联储加 息路径的担忧令美股陷入熊市。 很难准确判断这对标普500指数意味着什么。在经历了21个月的中性"黄色"区间后，当前红色周期对模型大多数成分指标而言仍处于初期阶段。虽然这可能 预示着更多下跌，但由于美国贸易政策难以预测，投资者仍在争论最严重的抛售是否已经结束。 "要么全球贸易战很快结束，一切自行化解;要么股市抛售加剧，投资者在情况恶化到出现买入机会前就认赔离场，"股票策略师沃尔夫在电话采访中表 示，"但目前尚未到达那个临界点。" 智通财经APP注意到，一项股市指标已进入历史数据显示与标普500指数最差回报前景相关的阶段。此前贸易紧张局势笼罩金融市场，削弱了美国企业的盈 利增长前景。 彭博行业研究的股票市场周期模型将市场划分为三个阶段——加速增长(绿色)、温和增长(黄色)和下跌(红色)。根据该机构分析师吉娜·马丁·亚当斯和吉莉安· 沃尔夫汇编的数据，该模型在今年3月和4月跌入了警示性的红色区域。 其他模型成分仅显现初步恶化迹象。例如，远期盈利预测的同比增速虽仍显著高 ...

智通财经5月9日电，美联储理事巴尔表示，围绕关税的不确定性增加了通胀上升和经济增长放缓的风 险。 ...

美联储理事巴尔：关税措施将导致美国通胀上升，并在今年晚些时候引发美国及海外经济增长放缓。 ...

智通财经5月9日电，美联储理事巴尔表示，从今年晚些时候开始，关税将导致美国通胀上升，美国和海 外经济增长放缓。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔7日表示，特朗普政府的新政策仍在不断演变中，其对经济的影响仍然"高度不确 定"。如果已宣布的大幅提升关税政策持续实施，可能会导致通胀上升、经济增长放缓以及失业率上 升。（央视新闻） 据美国有线电视新闻网5月8日报道，美国高盛集团最新研究报告预计，受高额关税和美元走软影响，剔 除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心消费者价格指数将在未来几个月上涨，并在12月达到3.8%。高 盛还预计，到12月，二手车价格将上涨8.3%，家用电器价格将上涨7.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Beijing SKP by Boyu Capital marks a significant event in the Chinese retail industry, potentially becoming one of the largest and most influential mergers in recent years [1][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Boyu Capital's fifth USD fund plans to acquire a portion of the equity in Beijing SKP, with Radiance Company and Hualian Group previously holding 60% and 40% stakes respectively [1]. - Post-transaction, Radiance will maintain an indirect stake of 42%-45% in Beijing SKP, ensuring continued control over its operations [1]. - The estimated valuation of the transaction is between $4 billion to $5 billion, equivalent to approximately 290 billion to 360 billion RMB [1]. Group 2: Historical Performance of Beijing SKP - Beijing SKP, established in 2006, has been a leader in luxury retail, featuring numerous international luxury brands [2]. - The SKP mall, opened in 2007, achieved record sales of 65 billion RMB in 2011, maintaining its position as the top-selling mall in China for 13 consecutive years [3]. - In 2023, SKP's sales reached a new high of 26.5 billion RMB, a 10.8% increase from 2022 [4]. Group 3: Current Challenges - In 2024, SKP's sales are projected to decline by 17% to 22 billion RMB, losing its title as "China's Store King" to Nanjing's Deji Plaza [5]. - The luxury retail market is experiencing a slowdown, with the overall personal luxury goods market in mainland China expected to decline by 18%-20% in 2024 [8]. Group 4: Implications for Stakeholders - The restructuring of Beijing SKP's ownership is likely to impact the luxury retail sector, with potential changes to its traditional business model and accelerated national expansion [6]. - Hualian Group's decision to sell its stake is seen as a strategy to alleviate financial pressures, as the company reported a 15.46% decline in revenue and a net loss of 550 million RMB in 2024 [7]. - The luxury market's current uncertainties necessitate high-end retailers to adapt their business models to maintain growth, focusing on customer experience and operational efficiency [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent statement did not present any surprising information, indicating a continuation of the current economic conditions and a potential for interest rate cuts in the summer [1] Economic Growth - There is an observation that the underlying economic growth appears to be slowing down, which raises concerns about the risk of continued economic deceleration throughout the summer [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain passive in its policy approach, which suggests a tightening of monetary policy despite the slowing growth [1] - There is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts as early as July, with further actions expected before the end of the year [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：工资增长已持续放缓。 ...