Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and made changes in policy tone, monetary policy thinking, and exchange - rate statements [6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. It is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. - Glass is in a short - term shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank Policy - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply - side structural reform" and added "put strengthening the domestic large - cycle in a more prominent position and coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand". It also removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation". The exchange - rate statement was also adjusted [6]. Copper - The price of copper has risen due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. The spot is tight, with low domestic and rapidly falling LME inventories and continuous spot premiums. The overseas logic has a more obvious pulling effect on prices. It is expected that the price will remain firm, and it is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. Glass - Glass has been in a downward trend in the first half of the year due to weak real - estate demand, insufficient supply contraction, high factory inventories, and large warrant pressures. After reaching a low - valuation level in early June, it rebounded. Currently, it is in a shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Other Commodities - For other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the report provides their price trends, fundamental data, and trend intensities. For example, zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has support from peak - season expectations [12][15][18].

6月23日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开了2025年第二季度(总第109次)例会。会议分析了国内外经 济金融形势，对下一步金融领域重点工作作出部署。 与一季度例会相比，本次例会对经济形势的判断更为积极，在提出"我国经济呈现向好态势，社会信心 持续提振，高质量发展扎实推进"的同时，也强调"仍面临国内需求不足、物价持续低位运行、风险隐患 较多等困难和挑战"。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，这一表述背后的原因是上半年扩内需政策全 面发力，居民消费需求显著加快，基建投资增速稳中有升，共同推动上半年宏观经济保持较强增长动 能，但市场内生需求仍然不足。 具体来看，会议明确，要有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，加力支持 科技创新、提振消费，做好"两重""两新"等重点领域的融资支持。 提振消费是扩内需、稳增长的关键点。5月9日，中国人民银行正式设立了5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷 款，这将有望进一步激励引导金融机构加大对住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教育等服务消费重点领域和养老产 业的金融支持力度。业内专家认为，此项政策从消费供给端发力，能够更好满足群众消费升级的需求， 未来与财政及其他行业政策配合，还可 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 6 月 27 日，央行发布 2025 年二季度货币政策委员会例会通稿，我们学习心得如下。 核心观点 1 、与一季度相比，例会的哪些变化值得关注？ ①在政策基调上，例会删去了"把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来"，并增加了"把 做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系"这一表述。 ②在货币政策思路上，删去了"择机降准降息"，增加了"灵活把握政策实施力度和节奏的表述"。 ③汇率表述上，央行删去了"加强市场管理，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进 行处置"的表述。 2 、与一季度相比，例会的哪些不变值得关注？ 在货币政策态度上，央行维持了"货币政策适度宽松"的表述，但同时，央行也维持了"畅通货币政策传导机 制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转。" 3 、我们如何理解的当下的货币政策 ①从货币政策投放的目的上，当下央行投放流动性不止是支持商业银行信用扩张能力，同时还有稳定股债 市场流动性的诉求。 ②从货币政策投放 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 关注例会提法的变与不变 ——2025年二季度货币政策委员会例会学习 事 项 6月 27日，央行发布 2025年二季度货币政策委员会例会通稿，我们学习心得 如下。 核心观点 宏观研究 1、与一季度相比，例会的哪些变化值得关注？ ①在政策基调上，例会删去了"把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革 有机结合起来"，并增加了"把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统筹好 总供给和总需求的关系"这一表述。 ②在货币政策思路上，删去了"择机降准降息"，增加了"灵活把握政策实施 力度和节奏的表述"。 ③汇率表述上，央行删去了"加强市场管理，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏， 坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置"的表述。 2、与一季度相比，例会的哪些不变值得关注？ 在货币政策态度上，央行维持了"货币政策适度宽松"的表述，但同时，央行 也维持了"畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转。" 3、我们如何理解的当下的货币政策 ①从货币政策投放的目的上，当下央行投放流动性不止是支持商业银行信用扩 张能力，同时还有稳定股债市场流动性的诉求。 ②从货币政策投放的数量上，重点关注居民存款搬家的力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of balancing total supply and total demand, enhancing macro policy coordination, and implementing both stock and incremental policies to stimulate economic recovery and growth [1] Group 1 - The meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee highlighted the need to strengthen domestic circulation as a priority [1] - There is a focus on fully utilizing existing policies and increasing the implementation of new policies to maximize their effects [1] - The aim is to expand domestic demand, stabilize expectations, and invigorate economic activity to promote sustained economic recovery [1]

智通财经6月27日电，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第二季度（总第109次）例会于6月23日召 开。会议强调，按照党中央、国务院的决策部署，牢牢把握高质量发展首要任务，扎实推进中国式现代 化，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局。把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统 筹好总供给和总需求的关系，增强宏观政策协调配合，用好用足存量政策，加力实施增量政策，充分释 放政策效应，扩大内需、稳定预期、激发活力，推动经济持续回升向好。 央行：把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置 ...

Core Insights - In the first five months, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.1% despite an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to the first four months [1] Group 1: Profit Trends - The profit of industrial enterprises decreased year-on-year due to multiple factors including insufficient effective demand, declining industrial product prices, and short-term fluctuations [1] - Although the total profit declined, the gross profit calculated by deducting operating costs from operating income increased by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3.0 percentage point increase in overall profits for industrial enterprises [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "Two New" policy has shown continuous effects, with various regions and departments intensifying efforts to implement the policy, effectively releasing domestic demand vitality [1] - Under the influence of large-scale equipment renewal policies, the profits of the general equipment and specialized equipment industries increased by 10.6% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, collectively contributing 0.6 percentage points to the growth of profits for industrial enterprises above designated size [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The next phase will focus on thoroughly implementing the decisions and deployments of the Central Committee and the State Council, adopting more proactive macro policies, strengthening domestic circulation, enhancing innovation-driven development, and solidifying the foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprise efficiency [1]

1—5月份规模以上工业企业实现利润总额2.7万亿元 ——国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁解读2025年1—5月份工业企业利润数据 1—5月份，规模以上工业企业实现利润总额2.72万亿元，同比有所下降，呈现以下特点： "上天入海"尽显工业高质量发展活力。1—5月份，我国航天、航空、航海等"三航"产业快速发展， 带动铁路船舶航空航天行业利润同比增长56.0%。其中，在国产大飞机成功商业运营两周年、载人月球 探测工程登月阶段任务启动以及商业航天企业不断取得新成果推动下，飞机制造、航天器及运载火箭制 造等行业利润分别增长120.7%、28.6%，同时带动航空航天相关设备制造行业利润增长68.1%。在海洋 经济大力发展背景下，船舶及相关装置制造行业利润增长85.0%，其中金属船舶制造利润增长111.8%， 相关的船用配套设备制造、海洋工程装备制造利润分别增长63.2%、15.4%。 "两新"政策效应持续显现。1—5月份，各地区各有关部门加大力度推动"两新"政策落地实施，有效 释放内需活力。在大规模设备更新相关政策带动下，通用设备、专用设备行业利润同比分别增长 10.6%、7.1%，合计拉动规模以上工业利润增长0.6个百分点 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in steel prices across various categories, with the national absolute price index for steel at 3442 yuan/ton, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 12.9% year-on-year [1] - Specific price indices for different steel products show a mixed trend: long products at 3278 yuan/ton (down 0.1% week-on-week, down 13.0% year-on-year), section steel at 3384 yuan/ton (down 0.4% week-on-week, down 14.2% year-on-year), plate steel at 3518 yuan/ton (up 0.1% week-on-week, down 13.1% year-on-year), and pipe steel at 3944 yuan/ton (down 0.1% week-on-week, down 11% year-on-year) [1] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by proactive policies aimed at stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic cycle, reflecting the resilience and vitality of the economy [1] Group 2 - In the futures market, there was an increase in prices for coking coal (up 2.78%), coke (up 2.9%), rebar (up 1.05%), and hot-rolled coil (up 1.47%), while iron ore prices remained stable [2] - On the supply side, steel companies are showing increased capacity release due to varying profitability across products, leading to a slight increase in molten iron production, although production levels for specific products vary [2] - Demand is affected by seasonal weather factors, resulting in generally poor transaction performance across various products, while cost support for steel prices remains strong due to stable scrap steel prices and steady coke prices [2]

Key Points - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and the need for strategic actions in response to external pressures on the economy [3][4] - It highlights the significance of domestic consumption and the potential for growth in this area, particularly through policies aimed at increasing the income of middle and low-income groups [4][5] - The article discusses the necessity of expanding high-level opening-up to counterbalance external uncertainties, including the need for financial support for foreign trade [7][9] - It points out the resilience and adaptability of Chinese enterprises in facing external challenges, showcasing examples of businesses that have successfully navigated these pressures [12][14] - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is presented as a viable strategy for companies to enhance their competitiveness and market presence [15]