铜供需弱平衡确立 高位震荡渐承压 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：7月4日SHFE主力合约价格小幅回落0.81%，收80030元/ 吨。LME三月期铜价同步下探至9951.5美元/吨，周内高位回调压力显现。 现货升贴水方面，平水铜贴水维持80元/吨，湿法铜贴水收窄至-5元/吨， 市场对高价铜抵触情绪升温，但LME（0-3）基差回落至87.61美元/吨。 持仓与成交：LME持仓量小幅收缩至282135手，国内SHFE库存周内累加 1.01%至95275吨，宏观扰动下多空博弈持续。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：智利6月对华铜及铜矿出口分别回落至29990吨和809837吨，短期 海外矿端增量受限。国内冶炼产能释放强劲，上半年电解铜产量同比增 11.4%。 需求端：淡季效应深化，7月首周精铜杆开工率同比转负，线缆企业开工率 降至67.81%，家电排产同比下滑2.6%，高铜价抑制家电、建筑等领域新增 订单。仅电力板块需求相对稳定，但难抵整体消费疲软。 库存端：LME库存周内去库7.45%至22307吨，COMEX库存增3.7%至220954短 吨；国内SHFE库存连续累库至95275吨 ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 供应端持续减产，光伏玻璃行业深陷亏损 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/7/4 当周）： 截至 7 月 4 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格为 10.5 元/平米，环比上周下跌；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 18 元/平 米，环比上周持平。当前光伏玻璃价格创历史新低，市场竞争加 剧。 能 随着行业价格持续下行，利润大幅亏损倒逼光伏玻璃厂家开始加 速减产。基于行业呼吁，龙头企业于七月初带头行动。上周有五 条光伏玻璃产线冷修，一个窑炉堵口。预计本周行业减产将持续， 计划减产窑炉 1-2 座，不排除有计划外减产的情况。 源 化 上周需求端订单表现一般，周初厂家发货节奏较缓，新月需求并 不乐观。短期需求端难以有较快恢复，供大于需局面将延续。 工 目前光伏玻璃行业库存持续上行，虽然行业减产仍在继续，但由 于需求端短期难以有较快恢复，供大于需局面依然存在，本周库 存预计将继续上行。 上周行业毛利润继续下滑，亏损程度进一步加深。近期行业累库 压力逐步加剧，部分企业低价加速抢单出货，光伏玻璃利润水平 持续下滑。 ★ ...

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 国 内 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 (8621)23297818× tuqiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 同时居民就业存在内生性的"自平衡"机制，也会使就业人员自发向生活性服务业流入。过往就业 向金融业、信息技术服务、制造业等高工资行业集中，但 2021 年后，高工资不再是影响就业流动 的关键。就业更多向工作时长较短的生活服务业流入，这些行业的时薪"被动"提高；如 2021-2023 年，卫生业周工作时长减少 1.5 小时，时薪增加 9.3 元/小时；对应就业占比较 2021 年上行 0.2pct。 2025 年 07 月 07 日 居民如何"反内卷"？ ——"反内卷"系列专题之二 ⚫ 一问：哪些群体在"内卷"？工作时间拉长挤占消费时间，制造业、生产性服务业 ...

Group 1 - The phenomenon of "involution" is most pronounced among young people, with average weekly working hours increasing by over 4 hours in the past five years. The average weekly working hours for employees aged 25-34 rose from 46.7 hours in 2018 to 50.8 hours in 2023 [3][28] - The average daily working time in China increased by 21 minutes from 2018 to 2023, reaching 48.3 hours per week, while the time spent on purchasing goods and services dropped from 80 minutes per day to 43 minutes per day [2][9] - The "involution" trend is particularly evident in the manufacturing and productive service sectors, while the real estate and life service sectors have seen a decrease in working hours [2][21] Group 2 - Current policies to combat "involution" focus on encouraging flexible work arrangements and paid leave, but these measures primarily address symptoms rather than the root causes of prolonged working hours [4][35] - The root cause of "involution" is the uneven distribution of employment across industries, with excessive employment in manufacturing leading to "involution" and insufficient employment in the service sector [4][48] - There is a significant employment gap in the life service sector, with a potential to absorb more jobs, as the wage growth in this sector (18.1%) outpaces that of manufacturing (10.7%) [5][61] Group 3 - The long-term direction for combating "involution" involves aligning supply structures with changing demand structures, particularly as consumer demand trends towards services [6][85] - Global experiences indicate that as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000 and urbanization rates hit 70%, the proportion of service consumption in total consumption increases by approximately 0.6% annually [6][86] - The aging population is expected to drive service consumption, with each 1% increase in the aging rate correlating with a 1.3% increase in service consumption share [6][93]

数据日报 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0021658 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号:F03110419 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 03/24 04/24 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) 7月4日 指标 涨跌 --- 19/20 ====- 20/21 ====- 21/22 ===== 22/23 24/25 大连 -4 2500 -6 2000 -54 天津 -16 1 500 日照 -114 -16 43%豆粕现货基差 张家港 -134 -16 -900 (对声力合约) 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 09/21 10/22 11/22 M9-M1 东莞 -134 -16 --- 2019/20 --- 2023/24 == ==== 2021/22 2025/26 == - 2024/25 1000 湛江 -84 △ 800 600 -104 防城 -6 400 200 菜粕现货基差 广东 -87 14 -200 06/25 M9-1 M9-RM9 -52 -2 ===== 18/19 ===== 19/20 ===== ...

能源化工日报 2025-07-07 原油 能源化工组 行情方面：截至周五，WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.18 美元，跌幅 0.27%，报 67 美元；布伦特主 力原油期货收跌 0.34 美元，跌幅 0.49%，报 68.51 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 2.80 元，跌 幅 0.55%，报 503.5 元。 数据方面：欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.21 百万桶至 9.15 百万桶，环比去 库 2.23%；柴油库存环比累库 0.55 百万桶至 14.35 百万桶，环比累库 4.00%；燃料油库存环 比去库 0.57 百万桶至 6.10 百万桶，环比去库 8.48%；石脑油环比去库 0.39 百万桶至 5.23 百 万桶，环比去库 6.89%；航空煤油环比去库 0.76 百万桶至 6.10 百万桶，环比去库 11.03%； 总体成品油环比去库 1.37 百万桶至 40.93 百万桶，环比去库 3.23%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性，虽然 O ...

Core Points - Thailand is making concessions to the U.S. by offering greater market access for agricultural and industrial products, and committing to increase purchases of U.S. energy and Boeing aircraft to reach a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline to avoid a 36% tariff threat from the Trump administration [1][2] - The latest proposal aims to reduce Thailand's trade surplus with the U.S. by 70% over five years, significantly accelerating the timeline compared to a previous ten-year plan [1][3] - Neighboring countries like Vietnam and Cambodia have already reached agreements with the U.S., increasing pressure on Thailand to secure favorable trade terms [1][3] Group 1: Trade Concessions - Thailand's new proposal includes commitments to provide greater market access for U.S. agricultural and industrial products, and to increase imports of U.S. energy and Boeing aircraft [2][4] - The proposal allows for the immediate cancellation of most import tariffs or non-tariff barriers, with gradual easing of restrictions on a few products [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The urgency for Thailand to finalize a trade agreement stems from economic pressures, including high household debt and weak domestic consumption, which could be exacerbated by high tariffs [6] - A favorable trade agreement is seen as crucial for protecting Thailand's trade-dependent economy from further downturns and alleviating investor concerns over political instability [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月7日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 6、预期：上周PTA装置检修重启并行，当前市场供需矛盾并不突出，且社会库存处于偏低水平，预计短期内PTA现货价格仍跟随 成本端震荡调整，现货基差快速下行后托底效应或将显现。关注OPEC+会议结果及聚酯负荷波动。 1、基本面：周五，贸易商商谈为主。下周货在09+90~105有成交，价格商谈区间在4800~4870附近。7月中在09+95~100有成交。 今日主流现货基差在09+97。中性 2、基差：现货4872，09合约基差125，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.95天，环比减少0.14天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.6.30-7.4 影响因素总结 上周玻璃期货先扬后抑，主力合约FG2509收盘较前一周上涨0.69%报1026元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1080元/吨，较前一周上涨2.27%。 供给方面，玻璃现货价格止跌，行业利润惨淡，天然气产线亏损加剧，行业冷修量 高位，上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产224条，开工率75.00%，日熔量15.68万吨，供给处 于历史低位。需求方面，近日受光伏玻璃限产情绪带动盘面大涨下部分期现商陆续进场， 局部企业出货较高下，发函提涨，但本月正值玻璃需求淡季叠加梅雨季，多数企业出货 一般，企业库存仍处于同期高位。截止7月3日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存6908.50万重量 箱，较前一周减少0.19%，库存在 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of thoughtful leadership transitions and the potential negative impact of hasty changes on team dynamics and company culture [1][6] - It highlights the need for leaders to cultivate curiosity and avoid biases when assessing their new teams, suggesting that leaders should ask questions and listen more [2][3] - The article advises conducting objective talent assessments through structured processes, including performance reviews and stakeholder interviews, to ensure fair evaluations [3][5] Group 2 - Building trust within the existing team is crucial, even when introducing new leaders, as it helps maintain morale and operational continuity [4][5] - Transparency in leadership is essential, including clear communication of expectations and decision-making processes, which can foster trust and respect among team members [5][6] - The article warns against the risks of sudden changes, such as loss of psychological safety, damage to employer branding, and loss of institutional knowledge, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to change [6][7] Group 3 - New leaders should leverage their fresh perspectives to identify gaps and inefficiencies while respecting the contributions of existing team members [7][8] - Sustainable change requires insight and understanding of team dynamics, rather than impulsive decisions that could alienate key talent [7][8] - The article concludes that effective leaders balance urgency with patience, making informed decisions that respect the existing culture while driving progress [7][8]