回顾本交易日，在美元和美债收益率回落的支撑下，国际黄金价格上涨。投资者消化了美国上月消费者价 格上涨的数据，并等待美国总统特朗普贸易政策的进一步明朗化。美元指数从一个月高位回落，使得黄金 对其他货币持有者更具吸引力，美国通胀的上行强化了美联储维持当前利率更长时间的预期，9月降息概 率从数据公布前的接近60%降至约52%。 对于晚间黄金走势的看法！ 黄金晃晃悠悠一天了，随说确实承压我们第一阻力位3343-45一线开始了下跌，但最低也就只到了3333一 线，下行力度还是有些偏弱，对于我们预期的目标还是有些差异的，那么当前来说趋势还是没变，短空的 思路依旧保留，但是晚间8.30有数据公布，不排除黄金会先涨再跌，那么点位就需要在做调整了！ 小时线均线已经走平，短线多空的趋势较为焦灼，那么我们二次开空的点位就在3355裸K起跌口，若是晚 间继续上升测试新高点，那么我们就需要在做新的调整，短线上论位置就是今天白盘的第一个3343，其次 就是3355的压力位，毕竟今天波幅有限，是否会直接下跌还是要看后续K线的运行形态！ 黄金：空单第一阻力3343-45，美盘破位上涨则看3355的阻力位置继续做进场，防守8美金左右，目标看向 ...

Historical Review of Size and Style Rotation - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed due to significant economic stimulus and abundant liquidity, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to funding[6] - Between 2011 and 2013, large-cap stocks gained favor as economic growth pressures increased, highlighting their defensive attributes[8] - The period from 2013 to 2015 saw a resurgence of small-cap stocks driven by the rise of new industries and increased M&A activity, with leverage funds entering the market[9] - From 2016 to 2021, large-cap stocks dominated as supply-side reforms improved profitability for leading companies, while M&A activity cooled[10] - In the 2021 to 2023 period, small-cap stocks regained strength due to changes in funding structure and the rise of new industries like AI[12] Growth vs. Value Style Rotation - From 2011 to 2014, value stocks outperformed as the economy shifted from stimulus-driven growth to self-sustained growth, with GDP growth declining[15] - In 2015, growth stocks saw a rebound due to the rise of the internet and new industries, despite ongoing economic pressures[19] - The period from July 2016 to October 2018 favored value stocks as traditional industries improved amid tightening liquidity[21] - From November 2018 to July 2021, growth stocks outperformed due to the rise of new industries and favorable liquidity conditions[23] - From August 2021 to August 2024, value stocks are expected to dominate due to tightening global liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties[25] Key Indicators and Future Outlook - The historical analysis indicates that size and style rotations are influenced by fundamental factors, liquidity, valuation, and policy[27] - The correct prediction rate for small-cap outperformance since 2005 is 69%, while for growth vs. value since 2011 is 77%[2] - In the first half of 2025, small-cap stocks outperformed with a 7.54% increase in the CSI 1000 index compared to a 1.37% increase in the CSI 300 index[2] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potential shift towards large-cap stocks due to institutional investor preferences and external uncertainties[2]

分析师：英国长期国债收益率可能进一步上升 金十数据7月16日讯，AJ Bell分析师James Flintoft表示，由于通胀率持续高于英国央行2%的目标，英国 长期国债收益率可能进一步上升。此前数据显示，英国6月年度消费者价格指数通胀率从5月的3.4%意 外攀升至3.6%。Flintoft称，鉴于通胀走高的风险加剧，国债的投资者可能会要求长期债券提供更高的 收益率。 ...

"13精"数据库第379周更新公告 13精资讯-增加2025年6月万能险结算利率1900条 13精资讯-增加2025年披露的25家公司分红险产品红利实现率 13精资讯-增加2024年6月保险公司高管任职批复 13精资讯-增加最近一周保险公司被处罚数据 13精资讯-增加最近一周保险公司投连险净值数据 13 精利用最新录得数据做的研究报告之379 期： 2025半年度249个投连险投资账户加权收益率为2.5%，安联平衡型账户领衔，泰康则在权益型账户拔得头筹！ 先说结论： 1、 截止到2025年6月底，"13精"共收录现存投连险投资账户的数量为249个。其中，货币型投资账户38个，偏债型投资账户91个（含纯债型），平 衡型投资账户47个，权益型投资账户73个。 2025半年度投连险投资账户的加权收益率为2.5%。其中，权益类投连险账户加权收益率高达4.8%！ 2、 38个货币型账户的加权平均收益率为0.73%，简单平均收益率0.46%，中位数为0.48%，最大值为1.21%（恒安标准现金型投资账户），最小值 为-0.52%。 从货币型投资账户的收益率分布来看，有1个投资账户的收益率为负，其他所有账户收益率均为正，这 ...

Vincenzo Vedda表示预期，第二季企业盈利仍有下调空间，但科技与金融类公司或可幸免。在此背景 下，DWS继续建议投资者保持高度多元化的投资组合。欧元区投资者亦应关注美元走势，因为美元贬 值已几乎完全抵销美股的正面回报，换算成欧元后的收益更接近零。 美国总统特朗普不断向美联储施压，要求减息。然而，DWS预期美联储仍将依据实际数据审慎决策。 相比之下，欧洲央行已率先踏出减息第一步，若欧元维持强势，将进一步为欧洲央行提供减息空间。 DWS全球首席投资总监Vincenzo Vedda表示，新兴市场股票今年以来表现出色，MSCI新兴市场指数累 计上升约15%。虽然中国股市自2025年初以来已大幅上涨，但仍是DWS在亚洲市场中的首选之一。相 较之下，DWS对印度股市的前景较为审慎，尽管该市场过往屡创佳绩，但目前估值已属偏高。 自2025年初以来，标普500指数已重拾升势，目前已接近该行预测的2026年6月目标水平。经过一轮强劲 的短暂升势后，DWS现时认为市场回调风险升高，原因之一是股市在夏季月份通常呈现平稳甚至下跌 的走势。 欧洲股市仍是DWS的首选之一。长远来看，在财政支持措施与国际资金回流的推动下，欧洲市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent enforcement of a 20% personal income tax on overseas investment gains signifies a shift in China's tax regulation, moving towards a more stringent monitoring system for cross-border capital flows, aiming to curb irrational capital outflows and encourage the return of funds to domestic markets [1][6]. Tax Regulation and Legal Basis - The legal basis for taxing overseas investment income is established under the Individual Income Tax Law of the People's Republic of China, which mandates a 20% tax on various income types, including dividends and capital gains from overseas investments [2][4]. - Current practices indicate that taxation is primarily applied to "capital gains," with a "single transaction taxation" model, although there is some flexibility for annual loss offsetting [2][3]. Increased Tax Enforcement - Historically, tax enforcement on overseas investments has been lax, but recent developments indicate a significant increase in scrutiny, particularly due to advancements in information exchange mechanisms like CRS and the Gold Tax Phase IV system [5][6]. - The tax authority's intensified efforts are aimed at ensuring compliance among a growing number of Chinese residents engaging in overseas investments, thereby reducing tax evasion [6]. Impact on A-Share Market - The tightening of tax policies for overseas investors is expected to redirect some capital back to the A-share market, potentially enhancing market activity and providing support for A-share growth [7]. - A more robust tax system is anticipated to foster a fairer competitive environment in the A-share market, as all investors will operate under the same tax framework, thus stimulating market vitality [7]. Compliance and Tax Optimization Strategies - Despite the increased tax burden, interest in overseas investments remains strong, with investors exploring compliant tax optimization strategies [8][10]. - Strategies include utilizing domestic brokers for Hong Kong stock investments, which currently enjoy tax exemptions until the end of 2027, and investing in cross-border ETFs that adhere to domestic tax policies [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent enforcement of a 20% personal income tax on overseas investment income signifies a shift towards stricter tax regulation in China, aiming to enhance tax compliance and control capital outflow while encouraging funds to return to the domestic market [2][6][9]. Group 1: Legal Basis for Taxation - The legal framework for taxing overseas investment income is established under the Individual Income Tax Law of the People's Republic of China, which mandates a 20% tax on various income types, including dividends and capital gains from foreign investments [3][4]. - Current tax reporting practices allow for some flexibility, such as the possibility of offsetting annual gains and losses, although losses cannot be carried over to subsequent years [3][4]. Group 2: Increased Tax Enforcement - The tax authority's intensified scrutiny is attributed to the previous lax enforcement environment and the implementation of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS), which facilitates international information exchange on financial accounts [6][8]. - The CRS is expected to expand its coverage to over 150 jurisdictions by 2025, enhancing the ability of tax authorities to track overseas income [7]. Group 3: Implications for A-Share Market - Stricter tax policies are anticipated to redirect capital flows back to the A-share market, as investors reassess their overseas investments in light of increased tax burdens [9]. - A more robust tax system is expected to foster a fairer competitive environment in the A-share market, potentially enhancing market vitality and long-term health [9]. Group 4: Continued Interest in Overseas Investment - Despite the new tax regulations, interest in overseas investments remains strong, with investors exploring compliant tax avoidance strategies [10][11]. - Strategies include utilizing domestic brokers for Hong Kong stock investments, which currently enjoy tax exemptions until the end of 2027, and investing in cross-border ETFs that adhere to domestic tax policies [12].

固定收益 | 专题报告 短端做底仓+挖掘收益率曲线"凸点" | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；模型测算误差；ABS 发行及投资热度不及预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误。 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 16 日 2025Q3 城投债策略 研究结论 | | | | 连续冲刺后，转债依旧看多：可转债市场 | 2025-07-14 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 寻找收益率曲线的"凸点"：信用债市场周 | 2025-07-13 | | 观察 | | | 把握权益催化行情，金融和科技是重点： | 2025-07-08 | | 可转债市场周观察 | | ⚫ Q3 城投债策略：短端做底仓+挖掘收益率曲线"凸点"。短端确定性强适合做底 仓，但也难有收益增强空间，Q3 同时需要继续拉久期贡献收益，挖掘收益率曲线 "凸点"。回顾 Q2 信用债策略表现，前半段受制于资金面不稳等问题，短端下沉是 确定性最强的策略，5 月情绪开始转向积极，6 月 ...

!"#$%&'()*+,2025-07-16 !"#$%&!"'()*+",-./01 ——!"#$%&'! !"#$ !"#$% 本文分析了 DR007 对国债收益率的动态传导特征及其阶段性演变，指出当前短端利率 已趋近同步反应。同时回顾了三轮收益率曲线倒挂事件的成因及市场机制，强调当前 超长端倒挂主要源自保险、养老金等机构的久期配置需求。 展望未来，预计短端收益率仍有下行空间，但中长端走势受基本面和供需博弈制约； 在 "反内卷" 驱动的需求扩张背景下，债市表现需随时关注财政供给扩张带来的压力。 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) &'"( ■ !"#$%&'()*+,-$./01 DR007 作为资金面核心利率，其对国债收益率的传导效率逐渐上升。2020 年前滞后 15- 30 天，2020-2023 年缩短至约 5 天，而 2023 年以来已趋近同日响应。这一变化源于市 场化改革推进、金融机构久期管理精细化等因素，使得资金面波动迅速反映到收益率 曲线：短端收益率受资金面影响更为 ...

英国10年期国债收益率升至五周高点4.656%。 英国10年国债收益率 ...