5 . 1 0 - 5 . 1 6 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、 "周见"系列会议第30期 《关税的"终局" 》 2、 "洞见"系列会议第60期 《贸易冲突的"终局"？——关税"压力测试"系列之七 》 3、 "洞见"系列会议第61期 《金融压力或是美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾 —— 关税"压力测试"系列之六 》 1、 热点思考 | 金融压力或是美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾 ——关税"压力测试"系列之六 2、 热点思考 | 贸易冲突的"终局"？——关税"压力测试"系列之七 3、 热点思考｜中国制造"难替代性"？ 4、 热点思考 | 增量政策，如何"审时度势"？ 1、 如何理解货币政策的"灵活把握"？——2025年一季度货币政策执行报告解读 2、 4月通胀：关税冲击背后的积极表现 3、 海外高频 | 美英达成贸易协议，联储例会"静观其变" 4、 宏观月报 | 内外博弈下的政策"变局"？——宏观"月月谈"系列之六 5、 国内高频｜港口货物吞吐量明显回升 6、 政策高频 | 稳股市，稳楼市，强化对民企、科创企业的金融支持 7、 为何M2增速跳升 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Trends - Housing prices are expected to stabilize with a slight decline, but a crash is unlikely. Policies such as lifting purchase restrictions and lowering interest rates have been implemented, but they only prevent drastic drops rather than reversing the trend. By 2025, a new normal of "stability with decline" is anticipated [4] - In 2022, national commercial housing sales area decreased by 5%-10%, and new construction area fell by 10%-15%. The enthusiasm for home buying among younger generations has significantly decreased, with over 60% of young people considering homeownership as non-essential [4] Group 2: Employment Trends - Employment pressure is high, with over 10 million new graduates entering the job market and companies becoming increasingly selective. The global youth unemployment rate is projected to reach 12.6% in 2024, with a significant decline in low-skill job opportunities [5][6] - Many individuals are turning to flexible employment options such as food delivery and ride-sharing, with the food delivery sector alone absorbing over 7 million jobs, 35% of which are held by college graduates [7] Group 3: Financial Trends - Bank interest rates have dropped significantly, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1.5%, the lowest in history. This is part of an effort to encourage spending and investment in the real economy [8][9] - Despite lower interest rates, total deposits have increased by 8%, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment. Recommendations include diversifying investments into government bonds and structured deposits, which offer higher returns [10][11] Group 4: Technology Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an integral part of daily life, with applications in various sectors, including food service and banking. For instance, AI has replaced 30% of bank tellers and is being used in delivery services [12][13] - AI primarily replaces repetitive jobs, while roles requiring creativity and interpersonal skills are becoming more valuable. Embracing AI and acquiring new skills is encouraged [15][16] Group 5: Aging Population Trends - The aging population in China is accelerating, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older expected to rise from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2025. This demographic shift poses challenges for pension systems as the ratio of contributors to beneficiaries declines [17][18] - Innovative solutions such as intergenerational cohabitation, where younger individuals rent rooms from elderly residents while providing assistance, are emerging as potential strategies to address aging-related issues [19][20] - The aging industry is projected to see significant innovation and growth, with opportunities in smart caregiving and senior community services, representing a trillion-dollar market [21]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of flexible employment, particularly day labor jobs, among young, highly educated individuals in China, contrasting it with traditional views of such work as undesirable or associated with laziness [1][6][11] - It highlights personal experiences of individuals who transitioned from stable, high-paying jobs in large companies to day labor, seeking more meaningful and enjoyable work experiences [3][5][26] Group 1: Employment Trends - The launch of WeChat's "Nearby Jobs" mini-program has facilitated access to over 20,000 job opportunities, including unique day labor roles with daily wages ranging from 100 to 300 yuan [1] - As of the end of 2024, the number of flexible workers in China is projected to exceed 200 million, accounting for about one-third of the labor force, with predictions suggesting it could reach 400 million by 2036 [5][6] Group 2: Personal Experiences - One individual, after leaving a high-paying job with a monthly salary of 50,000 yuan, explored various day labor roles, emphasizing the enjoyment and experiential learning over financial gain [3][19] - Another individual, a civil engineering master's graduate, turned to day labor after struggling to find suitable employment in a declining real estate market, ultimately finding satisfaction in diverse short-term jobs [5][26] Group 3: Changing Perceptions - The stigma associated with day labor and the "Sanhe Dajian" phenomenon has softened, with many now viewing these roles as a proactive response to employment pressures rather than a sign of failure [6][11] - The article references David Graeber's concept of "bullshit jobs," contrasting the meaningfulness of day labor with the perceived futility of some high-paying corporate roles, suggesting a shift in how individuals value their work [11][19]

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the weak performance of the U.S. retail market, which raises concerns about economic growth and boosts expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [1] - U.S. retail sales for April showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, surpassing market expectations of 0.0%, while March's data was revised significantly upward to a growth of 1.7% [1] - The control group data, which directly impacts GDP, decreased by 0.2%, contrary to market expectations of a 0.3% increase, casting a shadow over the start of the second quarter [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that "supply shocks" may become the new normal, indicating that higher real interest rates could reflect more volatile inflation in the future [1] - The Fed's 2020 policy framework may shift focus away from employment gaps, as Powell stated that the central bank might not overly prioritize employment in the future [1] - The Fed adopted a "flexible average inflation targeting" approach, allowing inflation to exceed 2% for a period after being below that level for an extended time [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis of gold indicates a potential upward trend, with a recent price increase from 3120.0 to a peak of 3250.0, suggesting a possible shift in market momentum [4] - The trading strategy for gold suggests attempting to buy near 3211.0, with a stop loss at 3203.0 and targets set at 3231.0 and 3265.0 [2] - Silver prices also showed a bullish trend, recovering above the previous low of 31.87 and reaching a high of 32.67, indicating a potential upward movement [6]

SHMET 网讯： 在周四的讲话中，美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示正在重新评估其货币政策框架的"关键部分"，包括通胀目标和就业"缺口"的处理方式。随着经济和政策不断变 动，长期利率可能会走高。 鲍威尔表示，较高的实际利率可能反映了未来通胀可能比2010年代间歇期更加波动的可能性，称"供应冲击"将"更频繁且可能更持久"，这对经济和央行来说 是一个困难的挑战。然而，华尔街日报知名记者、"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos认为，这实际上与美联储目前设定利率的方式关系不大。 重新评估"缺口"概念：不再过度关注就业 2020年框架已不适用 当地时间周四，鲍威尔在美联储托马斯·劳巴赫(Thomas Laubach)研究会议上表示，美联储正在调整其货币政策框架，以应对2020年疫情后通胀和利率前景的 重大变化。 他表示，2020年制定的政策框架是基于当时持续低利率和低通胀的环境，但当下经济条件已发生显著变化。 我们将确保新的共识声明能够适应广泛的经济环境和发展。 特别值得注意的是，鲍威尔明确指出"零利率下限约束不再是基础情景。"他表示，2020年疫情之后，通胀调整后的"实际"利率上升，可能会影响美联储当前 框架的要素。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)表示，政策制定者正在考虑对指导货币政 策决策的框架关键部分进行调整，包括他们对美国就业不足的看法以及实现通胀目标的方式。 鲍威尔周四在为美联储货币政策框架研究会议准备的讲话中称，官员们"已表示，他们认为重新审视有 关'不足'的措辞是合适的。在上周的会议上，我们对平均通胀目标制也有类似的看法。" 鲍威尔承认，当前框架是在利率持续低企和通胀低迷时期设计的。他说："我们将确保新的共识声明能 够适应广泛的经济环境和发展。" 鲍威尔称，政策制定者受所谓零利率下限约束的想法"不再是基本假设"。零利率下限指利率已处于低 位，导致官员在需要时几乎没有空间降低借贷成本以支持经济。但他补充说，"框架继续应对这一风险 是审慎的。" 就业"不足"的定义调整 2020年的框架审查还对美联储的就业目标进行了调整，将重点放在所谓的"不足"上——即失业率过高的 时期。此前，美联储对失业率过高或过低的情况同等关注。 美联储官员今年启动了对央行实施货币政策的长期战略(即框架)及其沟通工具的定期审查。该框架为制 定利率的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)官员提供指导，帮助他们实 ...

伴随数字经济的迅速发展和工作方式的变革，灵活就业从业者数量显著增加并吸引了更多年轻人，但其 参保率低、不愿缴纳养老金的状况也越发突出。 灵活就业人员的社会保障问题备受关注。延迟退休政策的实施，将对这一群体产生哪些影响？本文分析 了养老金收益、收入稳定性、退休年限时长等因素对灵活就业人员养老保险缴纳的影响，并提出了四方 面政策建议：优化养老保险制度，降低缴费率，完善转移接续机制；提供经济激励和政策宣传，增加大 补贴力度的同时提供政策咨询服务；提升职业技能和就业支持，开展有针对性的培训，提供创业指导； 提高轻老年人（即临近退休年龄的人群）灵活就业保障，保障其参保权益。 灵活就业人员养老金缴纳现状 截至2021年底，中国灵活就业人员约2亿人，约占劳动年龄人口的22%。就年龄构成而言，北京腾景大 数据应用科技研究院与蚂蚁集团研究院联合发布的《2022年二季度灵活就业群体调查季度报告》显示， 灵活就业群体中16~20岁（37.7%）和31~40岁（35.0%）的比例相较全职工作群体偏高，这表明灵活就 业已成为更多年轻人的选择，但其养老保险参保意愿并不高。2020年中国劳动学会的2000余份抽样调查 显示，灵活就业人员整 ...

问：目前燃煤机组主要的降碳技术路线有哪些？ 答：目前主要为生物质掺烧、绿氨（氢）及碳捕集利用与封存技术。目前上述 技术还处于示范阶段，存在关键技术突破、提升经济性、加强政策支持、增强 跨产业协同等挑战。2024 年公司加速推进燃煤锅炉混氨燃烧技术的示范应用， 实现收入 5,506.05 万元，2025 年将继续开展展氨/氢、生物质掺烧技术研发。 烟台龙源电力技术股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | 编号：2025-01 | | --- | 证券代码：300105 证券简称：龙源技术 投资者关系活 动类别 特定对象调研 分析师会议 媒体采访 业绩说明会 新闻发布会 路演活动 现场参观 其他 参与单位名称 及人员姓名 天风证券：胡冰清、李宁 时间 2025年5月14日 10:00-11:00 地点 公司本部会议室 上市公司接待 人员姓名 总会计师兼董事会秘书 刘克冷、证券事务代表 宫文静 投资者关系活 动主要内 介绍 一、由宫文静女士对公司情况进行了介绍。 二、投资者提出的问题及公司回复情况。 问：4 月份《新一代煤电升级专项行动实施方案（2025—2027 年）》的发布对 目前行业发展有哪些影响？ 答：该《方 ...

5月13日下午，中国平安2024年年度股东大会上，中国平安管理层回应投资者关于发债融资的提问时表 示，平安根据市场情况进行债务融资，计划在境内一次或分多次发行本金不超（含）500亿元人民币债券 融资工具，包括但不限于资本补充债券、金融债券、公司债券及其他监管机构许可发行的境内人民币债券 融资工具。 在低利率环境中，此举有助于提升集团未来的资本灵活性，也有助于提升资本回报ROE。 中国平安董事长马明哲对此补充，管理层珍惜股东每一分钱，希望资本可以发挥最大的价值。金融、医疗行业 的发展前景很好，资本规划需要兼顾不同时期，管理层也希望在资本的筹集和使用方面可以兼顾各方面意见。 巴基斯坦， 重大突发！ 刚刚！普京，重大宣布！ 华尔街大举出手，什么信号？ 集体大涨！两大利好，重磅来袭！ 责编：罗晓霞 校对：祝甜婷 百万用户都在看 美国六大州，突然出手！贝森特发声，涉及对华关税 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com ...