化工日报 | 2025-04-25 本周港口库存增加，关注乙烷关税政策动向 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4179元/吨（较前一交易日变动-71元/吨，幅度-1.67%），EG华东市场现货价 4216元/吨（较前一交易日变动-19元/吨，幅度-0.45%），EG华东现货基差（基于2505合约）21元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 特朗普态度缓和后，周四市场对乙烷进口高关税导致装置停车的担忧放缓，EG价格下跌。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-66美元/吨（环比+3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-227元/吨（环比 +41元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为77.5万吨（环比上涨+0.4万吨）；根据隆众每周四 发布的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为68.8万吨（环比上周-1.9万吨）。本周主港计划到港总数19.6万吨，略偏多，主 港发货节奏降低且到货相对稳健，较本周一库存总量回升。当前库存处于近五年季节性中位水平，同时隐性库存 依旧偏高，关注平衡表去库对港口库存的传导。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 整 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the social electricity consumption in March increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the supply-demand situation is expected to gradually improve in the second quarter [11][68] - The coal price has shown signs of stabilization, with expectations of a rebound as inventory levels decrease and demand increases in the upcoming summer peak [7][32][70] Market Dynamics - Recent market dynamics show a slight decline in thermal coal prices, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price reported at 670 RMB/ton, down 2 RMB/ton week-on-week [7][13] - The coal mining operating rate as of April 16 was 90.2%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase week-on-week [16] - The inventory of thermal coal at major ports increased by 2.8% week-on-week, indicating a slight rise in supply [16][18] Industry Insights - The report highlights that the coal industry index rose by 2.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.0 percentage points [68] - The first round of price increases for coke has been implemented, with prices rising by 50-55 RMB/ton, supported by strong demand from steel production [56][66] - The report notes that the first two months of 2025 saw a significant decline in industry profits, with total profits of 50.7 billion RMB, down 47.3% year-on-year [71][73] Key Companies - Key companies with stable profits and high dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [7][71] - Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential include Xinji Energy and Yanzhou Coal [7][71] - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and low price-to-book ratios include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][71]