同时，中美双方建立经贸磋商机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。这一系列实质性进展，迈出了通过平等 对话协商解决分歧的重要一步，将中美经贸拉回到正常轨道。 中美日内瓦会谈取得实质性进展，反映出双方都有管控分歧、寻求共识的动机，以保护两国经贸关系不 偏航。这源于中美经贸关系的互利共赢本质，也揭示了中美两国"合则两利，斗则俱伤"的客观现实。 中美用对话协商开启了愈合分歧的合作之旅。 12日中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，美方承诺取消根据4月8日第14259号行政令和4月 9日第14266号行政令对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改4月2日第14257号行政令对中国商品加征 的34%的对等关税，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税；相应地，中方取消对美国商 品加征的共计91%的反制关税，针对美对等关税的34%反制关税，相应暂停其中24%的关税90天，剩余 10%的关税予以保留。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制措施。 贸易战关税战没有赢家，尤其是过去一个月发生在世界第一、二大经济体之间，对双方乃至全球经济的 破坏力显而易见，双方分别高达125%和145%的关税，几乎给中美经贸按下了暂停键， ...

中美瑞士会谈结束之后，全球对中美关系的发展充满了期待。中国官方发布了简洁有力的五个字："有重大进展"，迅速让世界松了一口气。相较之下，美国 的态度变化却令人玩味，连对中国的称呼也发生了微妙的转变。然而，美国这种态度的180度大转弯，让人感到有些不适应，甚至觉得其中有些不对劲。 那么，美国究竟改了怎样的说法？为何这种转变让人觉得怪异？答案隐藏在这场长达16小时的激烈谈判之后。在会谈结束后，美国贸易代表格里尔对外透 露，中美之间的分歧并不像外界想象的那么大，且美方称与"中国合作伙伴"达成的协议将产生积极效果。两国共同提到"实质性进展"，这表明瑞士会谈的气 氛并不像外界所传的那么紧张。 特朗普也公开发表声明，称中美会谈气氛"极为融洽"。他进一步表示，双方在多个关键议题上进行了深入交流和讨论，达成了多项重要共识。在特朗普看 来，双方始终秉持"友好且极具建设性"的态度，以"全面重启双边关系"为核心目标，展开了细致的谈判。 值得注意的是，虽然中美之间刚刚释放出和缓的信号，但其他国家也开始变得活跃起来。印度在特朗普之前曾被点名为"下一步的协议对象"，如今也似乎准 备与特朗普在贸易问题上展开较量。而日本则准备继续与美国角力。 ...

此外，多家研究机构和媒体也做了相关测算，本届美国政府累计对华新增关税税率将降至30%，中国方 面也将对美新增关税税率从125%下降到了10%。 中美双方是否会就关税等问题作进一步磋商？商务部新闻发言人表示，双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商 机制，就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通，开展进一步磋商。中方代表是国务院副总理何立峰，美方代 表是财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔。双方将定期或不定期轮流在中国、美国开展磋商，或在商定的 第三国开展磋商。根据需要，双方可就相关经贸议题开展工作层面磋商。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 南都讯记者杨文君发自北京 北京时间5月12日下午3时，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》正式公布， 中美双方承诺于5月14日前采取举措，同步调整关税税率。 根据联合声明，美方承诺取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中 国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令对中国商品加征的34%的对等关 税，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。相应地，中方取消对美国商品加征的共计 91%的反制关税；针对美对等关税的34%反制关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant progress made during the high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. in Geneva, which was positively received by the international community [1][3][4] - Both sides agreed to take measures to substantially reduce bilateral tariffs by May 14, 2025, with the U.S. canceling 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and China reciprocating with a similar reduction [1][3] - The establishment of a China-U.S. economic consultation mechanism was agreed upon, allowing for regular discussions in either country or a third country [1][3][4] Group 2 - The outcome of the talks exceeded market expectations, indicating that China's firm stance against high tariffs had a significant impact on the U.S. decision to lower tariffs [5][6] - The international community, including European economists, views the results as a positive sign for global economic stability, emphasizing the importance of rational economic policies [5][6] - The talks are expected to lead to further negotiations on remaining tariffs and non-tariff barriers, focusing on strategic industries such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [7][8] Group 3 - The Geneva talks are seen as a crucial step towards easing trade tensions, with potential positive implications for global markets, as evidenced by significant stock market increases following the announcement [4][6] - Analysts predict a rebound in Chinese exports to the U.S. in May and June, driven by U.S. importers replenishing depleted inventories [8][9] - The outcome of the talks is viewed as a temporary truce rather than a permanent resolution, with ongoing challenges expected in future negotiations [8][9]

以下文章来源于玉渊谭天 ，作者谭主 玉渊谭天 . 简单逻辑看复杂世界 据玉渊谭天，当地时间5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。会谈达成一系列 重要共识，取得实质性进展。 当地时间5月12日，中美发表日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明。 谭主了解到，此次会谈达成的联合声明平衡、有利于双方。 关于这次会谈，有三句话，值得注意。 【会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。】 坦诚、深入、建设性，谭主也和多位经贸专家进行了交流，用大白话总结： ｜｜坦诚，就是该聊的都聊了 ｜｜深入，就是要聊的都聊到了 ｜｜建设性，就是双方都认为聊得还不错 常年研究世界经济与政治的高凌云告诉谭主，放到当前中美经贸形势的语境下： 坦诚，就是双方都把自己关切的问题提了出来，比如在这轮贸易摩擦中，开诚布公地提出来，自己为 什么认为受到了损失，对所谓"对等"关税是怎么看待的，都直接地说出来。 深入，意味着双方会在某些问题提供出一些量化的数据，这使得对某些问题的讨论并不只停留在原 则、表面上的分析。 建设性，证明这次会谈取得了成果，并且双方都对这些成果比较满意。 中国社会科学院美国研究所经济室主任罗振兴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to show a volatile trend. Last week, the industrial data was below expectations, with a significant weakening in steel demand. The output of rebar declined, and the apparent demand decreased substantially, leading to an increase in inventory. The output of hot-rolled coils remained stable, but the apparent demand also declined, resulting in a corresponding increase in inventory. The real estate downturn and seasonal patterns contributed to the decline in the apparent demand for building materials, and hot-rolled coils faced pressure on exports due to overseas anti-dumping measures. On the macro front, the high-level Sino-US economic and trade negotiations achieved substantial progress [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3022 yuan/ton, a decline of 74 yuan, and a drop of 2.39%. The total trading volume was 8,123,194 lots, and the total open interest was 2,893,444 lots [2]. - SHFE hot-rolled coils had a closing price of 3157 yuan/ton, a decline of 47 yuan, and a drop of 1.47%. The total trading volume was 2,485,168 lots, and the total open interest was 1,395,031 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 696.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.5 yuan, and a drop of 1.07%. The total trading volume was 1,895,858 lots, and the total open interest was 699,233 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 877.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 53.0 yuan, and a drop of 5.70%. The total trading volume was 1,356,112 lots, and the total open interest was 418,835 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1446.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 91.5 yuan, and a drop of 5.95%. The total trading volume was 98,662 lots, and the total open interest was 50,876 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated downward. The fundamental situation weakened, leading to a decline in steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2910 (-50) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3170 (-50) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coils were at 3220 (-40) yuan/ton [4]. Macro Situation - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced the introduction of ten policy measures, including a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points, a reduction of the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, a decrease in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points, and the establishment of a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-loan" [1][5][10]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, including accelerating the introduction of a financing system suitable for the new model of real estate development and re-approving a 60 billion yuan long-term investment pilot for insurance funds [5][10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will fully support China Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi-"stabilization fund" and introduce policy measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5][10]. - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10 to 11. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and issue a joint statement on May 12 [1][5][10]. Industry Situation - Last week, the rebar output was 2.24 million tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 2.14 million tons, a decrease of 780,000 tons. The rebar inventory at mills was 1.88 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons, and the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons. The total inventory was 6.54 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons [1][6]. - The hot-rolled coil output was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The inventory at mills was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, and the social inventory was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons. The total inventory was 3.65 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons. The apparent demand was 3.1 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons [1][6]. Industry News - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva were candid, in-depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and achieving substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the Sino-US economic and trade dialogue and consultation, stating that China has noticed the US high-level's multiple statements expressing willingness to negotiate on tariff issues with China. The US has also actively conveyed information to China through relevant channels, and China is evaluating the situation [10]. - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, including measures from the central bank, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [10]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on the futures and monthly spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the regional price differences of rebar and hot-rolled coil spot, the smelting profits of long-process steel mills, the profits of short-process electric furnaces in East China, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the output of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the social and mill inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the total inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, and the apparent consumption of rebar and hot-rolled coils [9][11][13]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-12 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-12 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 中美达成重要共识，会谈取得实质性进展 观点分享： 中美经贸高层会谈 5 月 10 日至 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院 副总理何立峰当地时间 11 日晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高 层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中 美经贸磋商机制。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于 5 月 12 日发布会谈达成的联合声 明。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 国债期货 | ★★★★ | 国债期货：债市上周维持高位震荡，符合我们前期观点。5 月 7 日国新办一行一局一会会议 推出一揽子政策，宣布降准 0.5%，7 天逆回购利率调降 0.1%同时将带动后续 LPR 下调。会 议上亦介绍了其他结构性工具的调整与其他资本市场、实体经济的支持政策。受相关政策影 响，上周利率曲线有所走陡。4 月进出口数据全面好于预期，尽管对美出口收缩，但一带一 ...

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector in the A-share market experienced a significant surge, with the sector rising over 6% at one point during the trading session [2][4][5] - Notable stocks in the sector included Huaru Technology, which hit the daily limit up, and other companies like Aerospace South Lake and AVIC Chengfei, which saw substantial gains [6][8] - The overall A-share market showed strong performance, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.37% and 1.06% respectively [4][5] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index rose and surpassed the 23,000-point mark, with Dragon Power Technology experiencing a dramatic increase of over 50% during trading [11][12] - Dragon Power Technology announced a significant contract with Chuangneng New Energy, which is expected to generate over 5 billion RMB in sales from the supply of lithium iron phosphate materials from 2025 to 2029 [13]

美国方面表示"这是非常富有建设性的两天"、"我们能够如此迅速地达成协议，这反映出分歧可能并没有想象的那 么大"。 点评： 1、中美发布联合声明，这在外交上是一个很正面且很强的信号。 此前，市场预期普遍为会有新闻发布，但是不会有联合声明，市场上也存在不少"谈崩"的悲观预期。 鉴于有联合声明（在外交中属于级别较高文件）再加上双方的积极表态，我们认为结果是【大超预期】的。 2、这个结果表明美国在关税方面一定已对我方做出了初步让步。 中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识；即将发布【联合声明】，超出市场预期！ 事件：新华社报道，5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。 会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。 双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，就各自关切的经贸问题开展进一步的磋商。 中美双方将尽快敲定有关的细节，并且将于5月12日发布会谈 中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识；即将发布【联合声明】，超出市场预期！ 事件：新华社报道，5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。 会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进 ...

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