以下文章来源于二鸟说 ，作者二鸟说 二鸟说 . 专注于基金投资，秉承长期投资，价值投资，稳健投资的原则，合理进行大类资产配置，科学的择基，适当择时，实现资产长期稳健增值。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：二鸟说 来源：雪球 2024年以来，大消费板块内部的"温差"非常大，潮玩、即食茶饮、国潮金饰等为代表的新消费表现强势，白酒、调味品、休闲食品等为代表的旧消 费表现比较平淡。 新消费被赋予"悦己、社交、治愈、陪伴"等标签，相关企业通过抓住新消费人群、进入新渠道、开拓新市场等手段，获得比旧消费企业更快的业绩 增速，展现出高成长、高弹性的特征。截至6月20日，新消费领域的代表泡泡玛特自2024年1月1日以来涨幅达到1098.66%，老铺黄金自2024年6月 28日上市以来涨幅达到1084.46%，均完成十倍之旅。（来源：Choice，截至2025.6.20） 一、消费投资逻辑变迁的背后 从趋势来看，当前消费股的投资逻辑正从"含酒量"转向"含新量"，引发这种变迁的原因有很多。 1、支付意愿：不同时代有不同的需求 马斯洛需求层次理论将人类需求划分为五个层次，从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent easing of tensions in the Middle East and its potential impact on the oilseed market, particularly focusing on palm oil and its price corrections [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Middle East situation has calmed down, which may lead the oilseed market to return to fundamental logic [1] - The article raises questions about how deep the recent correction in palm oil prices will go [1] Group 2: Price Trends - There is an ongoing analysis of the palm oil market, considering the recent price fluctuations and potential recovery [1]

Group 1 - The core driver of the current market trend is the subtle shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance, with officials acknowledging the necessity for interest rate cuts if core PCE inflation continues to converge towards the 2% target [3] - There is a significant divergence between market expectations and the Federal Reserve's latest dot plot, with the futures market pricing in a more aggressive rate cut for 2024 than indicated by the Fed [3][4] - The gold market is experiencing volatility due to the interplay of Fed policy, tariff impacts, geopolitical risks, and economic data, leading to a potential re-evaluation of gold's inflation-hedging and safe-haven attributes [4] Group 2 - The technical analysis of gold shows a critical resistance zone between 795-805 CNY/gram and a support level at 750-760 CNY/gram, with the effectiveness of these levels dependent on geopolitical developments [3] - The market is at a crossroads, balancing the certainty of the Fed's policy shift against the uncertainty of its execution, which could lead to significant price adjustments [4] - Traders should be cautious of two main risk points: overinterpretation of single policy signals leading to price overshooting and potential trend changes following key technical level breaches [4]

上周我看古井贡b年线绿了，想把旅游剩的外币闲钱买进去。 但看到茅台集团公众号的坚决拥护并推动白酒回归初心的文章，有点莫名的不安。 就又按下了加仓的手， 作为社会最底层的金融消费者，我很多时候并不理解一个政策的范围和力 度， 万钧之力下来，我无法想象所有民营地产公司都会破产，也无法想象所有教培公司要么倒闭要么 跌90%。 当然白酒企业资产负债表不同，大企业只是利润下降而不会倒闭破产， 但我也无法判断这次对 白酒企业收入和利润的影响。 所以，这次你怎么看？ shshchen 搜了一下集思录，第一次热烈讨论"万科送钱"的帖子大约出现在2021年夏天，万科当时15- 20块之间。第一次热烈讨论"医疗能否抄底"的帖子出现在2022年夏天，当时医疗ETF大约5 毛上下，现在3毛3。现在的价格已经从底部上来不少了。 割总 白酒很有必要关注一下前几年市场好的时候，各大主流厂商扩张的产能，现在可能面临的问 题是产能端过剩，需求端收缩，戴维斯双击。 不要命的小方 白酒产能过剩的不是一点半点，需求萎缩的也不是一点半点。 但是，也请看看下面的情况： 1981年，美国年消费香烟6400亿支； 2022年，美国年消费香烟1700亿支；下 ...

宠粉节超宠你！ 持有人参与，100%有奖，还有机会抽到 大疆 Pocket 3、足金金元宝、Labubu 盲盒 等好礼！ 已有3人抽中Labubu，大奖都还有余位，速来～ 从机器人到新消费，今年市场上出圈的强势热门股，其实真不少。 热门股越强，关于要不要上车热门股的讨论也越多。生活中，小编经常会收到朋友的私信，最近**板块那 么强，要不要上车？ 投资决策因人而异，不过作为朋友，我一般会建议大家在操作前先过这三把筛子。 第一把筛子，是确认决策逻辑的一致性。 因为趋势而买入，就以趋势作为决策逻辑（趋势对应的动量投资，是比价值投资更古老的策略类型）；因 为价值而买入，就聚焦价值作为决策逻辑。当然，也有人觉得一开始很难清晰界定自己在起点时的决策逻 辑，这里提供一个小编觉得很好用的心理测试——买入前可以问问自己如果买入之后就是2-3个跌停，你 愿不愿意加仓，很多情况下对于这个问题的答案，可以帮助我们了解自己的初心。 第二把筛子，是对"这次不一样"保持审慎的态度，除非你确认自己有足够深刻的认知。 是热门股，尤其如果是在热门时长不太短的情况下，估值大概率没那么便宜。情绪高涨时，甚至连空气中 弥漫着"再不进场就晚了"的焦虑， ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a prolonged downturn, yet some leading crypto companies are pursuing IPOs, signaling a potential market bottom [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Environment - The current economic climate is characterized by uncertainty, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum under pressure, leading to cautious investor sentiment [1] - Despite a tightening liquidity environment and increased regulatory scrutiny, some companies are opting for IPOs, which may indicate confidence in their fundamentals [3][4] Group 2: IPO Dynamics - Companies choosing to go public during a bear market are likely doing so to enhance transparency and stabilize valuations, contrasting with the speculative frenzy seen during bull markets [3][4] - The shift from speculative trading to a focus on fundamental business performance is evident, as investors prioritize real revenue capabilities and compliance pathways [3][4] Group 3: Industry Maturity - The cryptocurrency sector is witnessing a maturation in governance, finance, anti-money laundering practices, and user data protection, aligning more closely with traditional public company standards [4] - Technological advancements, such as the expansion of Ethereum Layer 2 solutions and new Bitcoin applications, are accelerating industry evolution and laying the groundwork for future growth [4] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The IPO activities of crypto firms should be viewed as part of a long-term strategic deployment rather than a direct signal of market reversal [5] - The current environment may represent a critical "bottom-building" phase for the crypto market, suggesting that patient investors could find new opportunities as the industry stabilizes [5]

Group 1 - The relationship between investment and consumption is interdependent, and both are essential for expanding total demand in the economy [2][3] - Government spending should focus on both investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth, with current policies showing a structural bias towards investment [2][3] - The accumulation of material capital through investment is fundamental for economic growth, while consumption contributes to human capital, which is increasingly important in an innovation-driven economy [2][4] Group 2 - The debate over whether to prioritize investment or consumption is less productive than understanding their relationship within the overall economic cycle [3] - Government spending has become an integral part of daily economic cycles, and its effectiveness is hindered by issues such as mismatched flows and uncertainty in spending responsibilities [3][6] - A shift towards a human-centered logic in economic development is necessary, focusing on meeting people's needs through both investment and consumption [4][5] Group 3 - Urban-rural dualism restricts the mobility of farmers, impacting their access to equal public services and opportunities, which highlights the need for government investment and consumption to address these social identity issues [5][6] - Promoting social equity requires addressing inequalities in starting points and opportunities, with government policies aimed at facilitating migration and urbanization [7] - The central-local fiscal relationship is crucial for effective government investment and consumption, with local government spending being a significant component of overall fiscal policy [8][9] Group 4 - Current data shows that central government spending has increased by 9%, while local government spending has only grown by 3.9%, indicating insufficient expansion at the local level [9] - To implement more effective fiscal policies, reforms in the central-local fiscal relationship are essential, particularly in increasing the share of central government spending [9]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 06 月 22 日 全球流动性扩张逻辑或有所改变 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每月 国内方面， 1）6 月中旬出口增速下行趋势延续，内需表现结构性分化，投资 端继续处于偏弱状态，商品房成交弱修复，能源价格将推动 PPI 反弹但幅度有 限，实际经济增速下行趋势未改。2）中央财政积极发力，预计将进一步在民 生领域发力；化债节奏加快但仍有余量；地方债发行节奏仍然偏慢。3）资产 端来看，康波萧条期最终会有一轮出清过程，在地缘不存在大规模升级的前提 下，全球权益资产泡沫化是唯一路径。下半年要强烈关注权益资产或有的上行 风险，预计港股整体表现好于 A 股，哑铃型策略将继续占优。 海外方面，1）6 月 FOMC 美联储继续暂停降息，货币政策可能不是未来一段 时间资产定价的重心，直到 8 月下旬全球央行会议和 9 月中旬议息会议。2） 中东局势和关税同时升级的概率不高，若中东局势继续升级推高油价带动非核 心通胀上升，则关税政策将进一步缓和且缓解核心通胀压力，年内降息确属大 概率，变数在于降息次数是否符合两次的预期。3）6 月 17 日美国参议院通过 《稳定币法案》，稳定币作用类 ...

金十数据6月22日讯，CNN记者Nick Paton Walsh表示，特朗普显然铭记着2020年刺杀伊朗圣城旅指挥官 苏莱曼尼的经验。当时，美军致命空袭被视为史无前例甚至鲁莽，但最终伊朗因可用反击力量有限，报 复行动效果甚微。周六美军袭击伊朗核设施的决策，凸显了伊朗在与以色列一周的相互打击后，军事力 量再次陷入弱势——其导弹库存已耗尽，效能也低于部分分析师预期。白宫可能评估认为，德黑兰如今 对美反击的选项，比2019年时更少。 当下核心疑问在于：这些袭击是否真正终结了伊朗的核野心，并 遏制其拥核可能？若答案并非绝对肯定，特朗普将给自己制造一个严重的新麻烦。 分析：特朗普想要复刻苏莱曼尼行动逻辑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is primarily driven by the easing of tariff risks between China and the U.S., alongside high gold-silver ratios attracting bullish investments, and heightened demand for silver as a safe haven due to escalating tensions in the Middle East [1][2]. Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Since June, the London silver spot price has risen from around $33 per ounce to a peak of $37.24 per ounce on June 17, marking a nearly 14-year high [1]. - The increase in silver prices is linked to the alleviation of economic downturn risks associated with tariff policies, as well as the current high gold-silver ratio, which has led to an influx of bullish capital [2]. Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical data indicates that silver often lags behind gold in price movements during bull markets, with gold typically initiating price increases before silver follows [3]. - The gold-silver ratio has shifted significantly over the years, influenced by the differing monetary properties of gold and the industrial demand for silver, leading to a higher ratio in recent years [3]. Investment Trends and Market Participants - The current price increase in silver is attributed to both institutional and retail investor participation, with significant growth in silver ETF holdings and active futures trading [4][5]. - As of June 18, global silver ETF holdings increased by 858 tons compared to May 20, indicating strong institutional interest [4]. Investment Strategies and Recommendations - For investors, it is suggested to consider physical silver for long-term holdings, while silver ETFs are recommended for those with moderate risk tolerance seeking short to medium-term investments [6]. - Investors with higher risk tolerance and trading experience may explore silver futures and related derivatives, with an emphasis on strict risk management practices [6].