Core Viewpoint - The liquid paraffin market in China is expected to grow from approximately 1.834 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.039 billion yuan in 2025, driven by increasing demand in skincare, cosmetics, lubricants, and preservatives, alongside a shift towards greener and more specialized products due to stricter environmental regulations and evolving consumer preferences [1][17]. Industry Overview - Liquid paraffin, also known as white oil, is derived from kerosene or diesel fractions and is characterized by its chemical stability and inertness, making it essential in various applications such as lubricants, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and food packaging [3][17]. - The industry is witnessing a transition towards green, high-end, and specialized products, with technological innovations and market demands driving growth [1][17]. Market Size and Growth - The Chinese liquid paraffin market is projected to reach approximately 1.834 billion yuan in 2024, with an expected increase to 2.039 billion yuan in 2025 [1][17]. - The skincare industry is a significant growth driver, with the market size for skincare products in China estimated at around 295.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.01% [14]. Import and Export Dynamics - In 2024, China imported 138,000 tons of liquid paraffin and heavy liquid paraffin, marking a year-on-year increase of 32.83%, with an import value of 1 billion yuan, up 23.93% [19]. - Exports of liquid paraffin and heavy liquid paraffin saw a significant decline, with only 750 tons exported in 2024, a drop of 93.12% year-on-year, attributed to weak international demand and increased trade barriers [19]. Industry Policies - The Chinese government is focusing on sustainable development in the paraffin industry, implementing policies to reduce environmental pollution and enhance resource efficiency [8]. - Recent guidelines aim to support the digital transformation of the petrochemical industry, promoting advanced technologies and improving management levels [8]. Industry Chain Structure - The liquid paraffin industry chain consists of upstream raw materials (primarily petroleum), midstream processing (distillation and cracking), and downstream applications in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and industrial products [11][13]. Key Companies - Major players in the liquid paraffin market include China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and various regional refineries such as Fushun Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical, which are involved in the production and supply of liquid paraffin [22][24][25][27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing increase in caustic soda futures prices, driven by seasonal inventory depletion and questions regarding supply pressures in the second half of the year [1] - The market anticipates an oversupply of alumina, raising concerns about whether demand can continue to grow in the future [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 （2）7月9日泰国合艾原料市场报价：白片无报价，烟片64.79，-0.41； 胶水54.3，-0.2；杯胶47.3，-0.2。 （3）7月8日，乘联分会发布的最新数据显示，今年6月，全国乘用车市场 零售208.4万辆，同比增长18.1%，环比增长7.6%。今年上半年，乘用车市 场累计零售1,090.1万辆，同比增长10.8%。乘联分会秘书长指出，前几年 国内车市零售呈现"前低后高"的走势，今年6月零售较2022年6月194万 的最高水平增长7%。这意味着，自今年5月后，乘用车市场再现"超强增 长"。 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-10 棕油继续偏强运行，关注MPOB报告 油脂：昨日棕油继续偏强运行，关注MPOB报告 蛋⽩粕：多空交织，盘面延续区间运行 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货局部走弱，期价低位震荡 ⽣猪：情绪冷却，猪价小幅回调 橡㬵：区间震荡走势延续 合成橡㬵：暂时企稳运行 纸浆：期货转暖未拉动现货氛围 棉花：棉价震荡运行 ⽩糖：糖价小幅上涨 原⽊：短期交割品流通冲击，现货偏弱运行 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：区间震荡⾛势延续 信息： （1）青岛保税区人民币 ...

机构：黄金期货横盘震荡 多空因素交织陷僵局 金十数据7月10日讯，机构分析指出，黄金期货在缺乏明确方向的交易中维持平盘，美国推迟加征关税 与美元走强的影响，持续与地缘政治紧张局势及不确定性形成对冲。当前期金价格维持在3320美元/盎 司附近水平，但本周仍累计下跌近1%——此前特朗普政府将所谓"对等"关税实施期限推迟至8月1日， 且不排除再次延期的可能。这一决定削弱了部分避险需求，推动美元和美债收益率上行，与无息资产黄 金的避险属性形成竞争。不过，特朗普政府新的关税威胁及相关贸易不确定性仍为金价提供部分支撑， 加之各国央行持续购金，黄金价格底部依然稳固。 ...

沙特阿美首席执行官：预计今年全球石油需求将增加120万至130万桶/日。 ...

Core Insights - The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production for the week ending July 4 was 18.388 million barrels per day, a decrease from the previous value of 19.803 million barrels per day [1] Group 1 - U.S. crude oil production has declined by approximately 1.415 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [1]

美国至7月4日当周EIA车用汽油总产量引伸需求数据 1020.16万桶/日，前值942.34万桶/日。 ...

美国至7月4日当周EIA蒸馏燃油产量引伸需求数据 525.29万桶/日，前值539.63万桶/日。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report titled "Why is the Divergence Trend between CPI and PPI Intensifying? - Review of June Price Data" dated July 9, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Data Observation CPI Data - In June, CPI was up 0.1% year - on - year, rising 0.2 pct from the previous month and moving from negative to positive. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct from the previous month and the value being at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [2] - Core CPI continued to rise, indicating a possible demand recovery, but it was uneven. The year - on - year increase in CPI was stronger than that of core CPI mainly due to the reduced drag from the energy item. After removing the impact of food and energy, core inflation continued to rise year - on - year, reflecting a demand recovery. However, the recovery of consumer demand was mainly supported by sub - items such as transportation, communication, rent, water and electricity, and household appliances, while CPI in areas such as clothing, education, tourism, and household services decreased month - on - month [3] - Service CPI continued to grow, and consumer goods CPI continued to recover. The demand structure continued to shift from food to consumption and services. The decline in consumer CPI narrowed, and service CPI had been growing for 5 months, with the year - on - year value remaining at 0.5% as in the previous month. Food prices remained stable, and the increase in vegetable prices led to a narrowing of the decline in food CPI [3] PPI Data - The month - on - month PPI of consumer goods weakened. The reason was that during the subsidy gap period, the path for demand to spread from policy - driven areas to other consumer goods areas slowed down compared with the previous month. Durable consumer goods declined month - on - month in June [4] - External demand suppressed the prices of the processing industry, while the input factor of international crude oil drove the price recovery of upstream industries, and PPI entered a weak equilibrium state. In June, the decline in external demand orders in the PMI indicated a weakening of external demand, leading to a month - on - month decline in the PPI of the processing industry. High temperatures restricted infrastructure construction, resulting in demand lagging behind material supply. The decline in coal prices due to new energy substitution and over - capacity continued to reduce PPI prices, but the increase in international crude oil prices repaired the drag on domestic related industries, and deflation in upstream industries such as mining and raw material industries eased [4] Group 3: In - depth Perspective From the Perspective of Resident Income - Since March, the year - on - year decline in rent has narrowed to - 0.1% and remained unchanged for 4 consecutive months. The stable and flat trend of rent may indicate that the income improvement trend has stalled, and income recovery is the core driving force for the recovery of total demand and the return of price levels to positive [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Activity - In June, the year - on - year price of pork dropped to - 8.5%, and the month - on - month price dropped to - 1.2%. The decline in pork prices was mainly due to oversupply and also reflected a contraction in pork demand in June, suggesting a possible structural decline in factory labor demand. The continuous squeeze on corporate profits in previous months still had a lagging impact on the economy, and the significant decline in the PMI of small enterprises and employment in the manufacturing and service industries in June confirmed the contraction in pork demand. The month - on - month decline in liquor prices was 0.3%, the same as the average in the past 5 years, implying that the business activity of small enterprises remained weak [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Price Transmission - The increase in household appliance prices in June may be an illusion during the policy window period. The month - on - month increase in household appliance CPI was likely due to manufacturers adjusting prices during the subsidy gap period. The price model of leading brands was to "raise the marked price and offset with subsidies" to achieve a nominal price increase. In June, the subsidy amount in many places was exhausted, leading to a decrease in the subsidy part and an increase in the final product price. The price increase during the subsidy gap period may be a game behavior to transfer inventory pressure [7] High - frequency Data - International oil prices showed a downward trend, and PPI would face downward pressure in the next stage. The marginal price of Nanhua industrial products began to rise, but the price of rebar continued to decline. Although the third batch of 300 billion dual - purpose funds had been issued, high - temperature weather restricted demand release and limited physical construction. Glass prices continued to decline, indicating no improvement in the real estate market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook CPI Outlook - Currently, CPI has achieved an upward breakthrough with a marginal reduction in external interference items, but the demand recovery is uneven, and the recovery trend needs to be consolidated. High - frequency data shows that international oil prices have started to decline, and with the easing of local geopolitical conflicts, it is highly likely that the oil price center will shift downward in July, which may drive next month's CPI down. In July, the next batch of fiscal funds will start to be in place, and the household appliance sub - item of CPI may decline. Due to the slowdown in the transmission to other industries caused by the subsidy gap and the crowding - out of consumption in other areas this month, the price recovery in other areas next month still needs to be observed. From the perspective of corporate activities, the continuous profit compression pattern has led to a decline in the prosperity of small enterprises and employment, and the consumption demand contributed by the income side is still not optimistic [7] PPI Outlook - The supply - side dilemma of PPI has not changed. The "rush - to - export" effect of external demand is fading, and although the pull from domestic demand has slowed down, it may rebound in July, maintaining the current weak equilibrium. On the supply side, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the decline in international oil prices in July may lead to a decline in PPI prices. In terms of external demand, there are still challenges, and exports are likely to decline in the second half of the year, with trade cooling down, which is difficult to significantly drive up total demand. In terms of domestic demand, after the next batch of subsidy funds is in place in July, on the one hand, it will directly improve corporate profits, and on the other hand, the uneven pattern of CPI demand recovery may improve, and the chain of CPI pulling PPI will restart, and the PPI of consumer goods may continue to rise. However, overall, the upward repair amplitude may be relatively limited [8]

还有不到180天，"十四五"将收官。7月9日，国新办"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题首场新闻发布会 举行，国家发改委领导以"一正两副"高规格阵容出席，这场比往常延长近30分钟的发布会，用90分钟浓 缩拆解了发改委如何冲刺"十四五"年度任务。现场官员们抛出硬核数据、讲述鲜活案例，还用接地气的 比喻铺开一张5年"中国超预期成长图"。 在发布会现场，媒体围绕中国GDP五年演变、中国制造、外商投资、民生需求等11个焦点问题接连发 问。国家发改委主任郑栅洁用"困难比预计多，成果比预期好，可谓风雨兼程见彩虹"，概括了这5年历 程。5年来，中国经济总量实现"四连跳"，增量预计超过35万亿元，相当于"再造一个长三角"。 谈GDP增长演变 内需对经济增长平均贡献率超八成，系经济发展主动力 "没有强大的国内市场，就没有稳定向好的中国经济。"谈到如何看待中国GDP潜在增长率和增长拉动力 的演变？国家发改委秘书长袁达答记者问称，中国拥有超大规模且极具增长潜力的国内市场，内需始终 是中国经济发展的主动力和稳定锚。"十四五"期间经济社会发展实践再次充分证明这一点。从内需整体 看，过去4年中国经历了国际环境剧烈变化等多重困难挑战冲击， ...