低基数利润修复
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低基数下的利润修复——7月工业企业效益数据点评(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-08-28 00:15
Core Viewpoint - The profit growth rate continues to recover, but it is more related to a low base, and current cost pressures remain high [3][9][57] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In July, industrial profits showed a month-on-month increase of 3.3 percentage points to -1.1%, driven by cost and expense rate improvements [3][9] - The cumulative profit year-on-year decreased by 1.7%, while revenue growth was 2.3%, slightly down from the previous month's 2.5% [2][8] - The cost rate for the consumer manufacturing chain remains at a historical high of 84.2%, with the petrochemical and metallurgy chains also experiencing increases [3][9][57] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The consumer manufacturing sector saw a significant decline in revenue growth, with a year-on-year drop of 2.6 percentage points to 6.2% in July [4][23] - The automotive industry's revenue growth fell sharply by 7.9 percentage points to 4.1% compared to the previous month [4][23] - In contrast, the petrochemical and metallurgy sectors experienced slight improvements in revenue, with increases of 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively [4][23] Group 3: Cost and Inventory Trends - The overall cost pressure for industrial enterprises remains high, with accounts receivable turnover rates showing no significant improvement [29][26] - Actual inventory growth saw a slight rebound, with upstream and midstream inventories performing better [44][59] - The nominal inventory decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 2.4%, while actual inventory increased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.6% [59][44] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing cost pressures are primarily due to downstream "involution" investments, leading to rigid cost increases [29][58] - There is an expectation for a long-term trend of profit recovery, supported by continuous domestic demand recovery, although attention should be paid to the negative impact of upstream price surges on profitability [29][58]