陈潇 天风证券农业首席: 好的，各位投资者下午好，我是天风证券研究所农业首席陈潇。那非常感谢大家来参加今 天下午的这样的一个电话会。那今天也是我们后续的整个的这个下一个资源品农产品怎么 选的这个系列电话会的第一场，那接下来的这个周一周二周三我们也会和这个紫金天风期 货的相关的这个负责的老师。做一个深度的农产品的一个系列的解读。那今天的这个会作 为我们整个系列的开场，还是由我们团队来跟大家整体的汇报一下农产品这样的观点，以 及相关的板块性的一个投资机会。 首先跟各位领导汇报一下，就之所以我们认为就是这个从 2026 年整体的农业策略来看的 话，要把农产品放在一个非常重要的战略地位，其实是从全球的这个逆逆全球化的这个趋 势去看。大家能够看到这个资源安全、能源安全其实是非常的重要的。那在这个粮食安全 的这个命题之下，其实也一直是近几年来这个我们重点的，就是我们国家重点的这样的一 个战略和这个很多政策的一个前提依据。所以从这个节奏，包括整个板块的轮动来看的话 除了资源品、能源品之后，我们认为粮食安全以及相关的这样的农产品的主线一定会成为 整个这个 A 股市场当中非常重要的这样的一个板块性的机会。 那第二个方面来讲的话 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig farming industry is "Buy" and is maintained for key companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [4][11]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry in China is currently experiencing accelerated scale-up, with significant growth potential as the industry evolves towards a more integrated supply chain from breeding to slaughter and distribution [3][10]. - The industry is projected to reach a market size of approximately 1.51 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating robust growth and market vitality [20][29]. - The cyclical nature of the pig market is expected to persist, with price fluctuations continuing despite increased scale and efficiency in production [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Industry: Accelerated Scale-Up and Growth Potential - The Chinese pig farming industry is characterized by a market size exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with a projected growth to 1.51 trillion yuan by 2024 [20][29]. - The industry is undergoing structural changes, with a focus on improving efficiency and reducing costs through scale [2][30]. 2. Cycle: Changes Brought by Accelerated Scale-Up - The scale-up process is expected to lengthen the price fluctuation cycles, although it will not eliminate them entirely [36]. - The amplitude of price fluctuations may increase during the acceleration phase, particularly during downturns [36][37]. 3. Growth: Low-Cost Expansion Capabilities - The industry is still in a golden period of scale-up, with significant benefits from previous scaling efforts [2][7]. - Companies with lower marginal costs and strong resource accumulation are positioned for growth, while high-cost producers are likely to exit the market [2][10]. 4. Further Growth: Industry Re-Growth and Supply Chain Extension - The integration of the supply chain is a key focus, with leading companies expanding from breeding to slaughter and distribution [3][10]. - The industry is expected to see a recovery in 2024, but supply pressures may return in 2025, leading to potential capacity reductions [3][10]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Valuation - Key companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others are projected to maintain strong earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2024 showing positive trends [4][11].