报告透过逆向推算模型估计，2026年四大行将有20.37万亿元长期存款到期，较2025年的18.34万亿元增 加2.03万亿元。若以四大行约占全国存款总量40%的比例推算，2026年全国长期定期存款到期规模将达 50.93万亿元，较2025年增加5.08万亿元。 2026年将开启银行业史上最大的负债再定价窗口，报告强调，这不仅能减缓净息差下滑速度，也为银行 盈利能力恢复创造条件。尽管面临息差压力，报告认为银行业基本面在2026年将保持稳健。中银国际覆 盖的商业银行，其2025年归母净利润预计实现同比小幅增长，2026年增速有望提升至约2%。 中银国际发布研报称，维持对内银板块H股"增持"评级，并列出具体推荐名单，首选工商银行 （601398）(01398)，认为其估值在同业中相对吸引; 同时建议买入农业银行（601288）(01288)、招商银 行（600036）(03968)、建设银行（601939）(00939)、邮储银行（601658）(01658)及中国光大银行 （601818）(06818)。 中银国际预测，随着超过50万亿元人民币(下同)的长期定期存款将于2026年集中到期，银行业负债成本 有望迎 ...

报告透过逆向推算模型估计，2026年四大行将有20.37万亿元长期存款到期，较2025年的18.34万亿元增 加2.03万亿元。若以四大行约占全国存款总量40%的比例推算，2026年全国长期定期存款到期规模将达 50.93万亿元，较2025年增加5.08万亿元。 2026年将开启银行业史上最大的负债再定价窗口，报告强调，这不仅能减缓净息差下滑速度，也为银行 盈利能力恢复创造条件。尽管面临息差压力，报告认为银行业基本面在2026年将保持稳健。中银国际覆 盖的商业银行，其2025年归母净利润预计实现同比小幅增长，2026年增速有望提升至约2%。 中银国际预测，随着超过50万亿元人民币(下同)的长期定期存款将于2026年集中到期，银行业负债成本 有望迎来重新定价窗口，这将显著缓解近年困扰行业的净息差下行压力。 根据中国人民银行数据，截至2025年6月末，内地人民币存款总额已达320.17万亿元。其中四大国有商 业银行一至五年期存款占比，从2024年末的24.5%高位回落至23.5%，显示存款结构出现初步改善迹 象。 智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，维持对内银板块H股"增持"评级，并列出具体推荐名单，首 选工 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports that despite a decline in investment income, most mainland banks have shown improvement in net interest income and healthy growth in fee income for Q3 2025 [1][2] - State-owned banks are experiencing ongoing net interest margin pressure, but many banks expect this pressure to ease further [2][3] - The asset quality of banks remains stable, with a majority reporting a steady non-performing loan ratio [3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Most state-owned banks reported higher profit growth in Q3 2025 compared to the first half of the year, supported by stable asset quality [1] - Net interest margin for many banks has rebounded due to lower funding costs and more prudent loan growth and pricing [1][2] - Ningbo Bank reported the highest net interest income growth among covered banks, benefiting from increased market share and lower margin pressure [1] Group 2: Fee Income Growth - Average fee income growth for covered banks rebounded from 1.4% in Q2 2025 to 11.1% in Q3 2025, driven by a recovery in capital market activities and strong insurance sales [2] - Ningbo Bank led with a 94% year-on-year growth in fee income, while Agricultural Bank maintained a 23.6% growth [2] Group 3: Asset Quality and Credit Costs - The average non-performing loan ratio for covered banks remained stable at 1.15%, with credit costs declining for most banks [3] - State-owned banks slightly reduced credit costs to support profit growth, while the non-performing loan coverage ratio remained high at 263% [3] - Overall, banks continue to show a trend of profit rebound, with state-owned banks accelerating profit growth in Q3 2025 due to further declines in credit costs [3]