Core Insights - The Beijing Grade A office market continues to experience a trend of "total de-stocking and regional differentiation," with a net absorption of 32,000 square meters in Q2 2025, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of de-stocking [1] - The vacancy rate remains stable at 20.2%, indicating a balance in the dynamics of new supply and demand [1] - Average net effective rent decreased to 235.6 RMB per square meter per month, with a slight decline of 2.9% quarter-on-quarter, representing the smallest decrease in the last three quarters [1] Market Trends - Demand in the Grade A office market is concentrated in strategic western areas such as Zhongguancun, Lize, and Financial Street, with Zhongguancun achieving a net absorption of over 60,000 square meters in the first half of the year [1] - Lize Business District also showed strong de-stocking momentum, with a net absorption of over 20,000 square meters in Q2 and more than 50,000 square meters in the first half of the year [1] - Financial Street maintains the lowest vacancy rate in the city at 11.7%, benefiting from the release of quality office space and market-driven rent adjustments [2] Future Outlook - The Grade A office market is expected to see favorable conditions for continued decline in vacancy rates due to a low supply peak in the next three years [2] - However, the market faces challenges with high vacancy rates and weak demand, necessitating a strategic wait for a new equilibrium [2] - The ongoing cycle of technological innovation is anticipated to drive companies to shift from inefficient assets to quality assets, leading to a rigorous clearing cycle in the office market [2]

多金属业务并行开发，构建中长期业绩增长极。锂业务：继续推进矿冶降本，拟在津巴布韦建设3 万吨 硫酸锂工厂，视市场行情择机动工；铜业务：力争2026 年完成Kitumba 铜矿6 万吨/年一体化建设并达 产达标。锗业务：规划20 万吨多金属综合循环回收项目，对应金属产能33 吨锗，11 吨镓，1.1 万吨 锌，公司预计2025 年完成火法冶炼工艺建设。铯业务：公司把持全球仅存在产铯榴石资源与主要铯铷 盐产能，公司预计2025 年完成津巴布韦Bikita 矿山铯选厂建设，并围绕Tsumeb 冶炼厂打造非洲中南部 多金属综合回收利用中心，布局锗、铯等金属冶炼产能。 投资建议：锂价出清周期或有延长，我们下修此前对公司盈利预测。2025-2027年锂价假设为7.5/8.5/9.5 万元/吨。公司锂盐业务高度一体化，持续降本有望平稳度过出清周期；铷铯业务垄断地位凸显，贡献 稳增现金流；铜矿业务实现突破，矿权禀赋优质具备增储空间；锗镓业务有望快速放量，充分受益于中 美博弈带来的战略金属价值上移。我们预计2025-2027 年公司归母净利为9/14/24 亿元，对应PE 24/15/9 倍，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：项目 ...