Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Haida Group has raised its dividend payout ratio for the years 2025-2027 from 30% to 50% and has submitted an application for the spin-off of its overseas business for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The current market expectations for Haida Group's domestic business dividend value and overseas growth potential remain optimistic, with the company expected to further amplify its competitive advantage in the domestic feed business by 2025 [1] - The company is experiencing sustained high growth in its feed exports, and the Hong Kong listing is anticipated to accelerate its overseas capacity layout and streamline overseas management and incentive strategies [1] Group 2 - Haida Group is highlighted as a rare asset with long-term excess advantages transitioning into dividend value, alongside high profitability and growth in overseas operations, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has raised its dividend payout ratio for the years 2025-2027 from 30% to 50% and submitted an application for the spin-off of its overseas business for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong domestic and overseas growth potential for the company [1] Group 1: Domestic Business Strength - The company's domestic feed business is expected to grow its external sales by approximately 20% in 2025, significantly outpacing the industry growth rate of about 6%, leading to an accelerated market share increase [2] - The company has demonstrated resilience in feed gross margins, with a minor decrease of only 6 yuan per ton compared to a 190 yuan decline for major competitors since 2015, indicating a strong competitive position [2] - The company aims to achieve a domestic feed production and sales target of 44.3 million tons by 2030, with ongoing improvements in operational efficiency expected [2] Group 2: Free Cash Flow and Dividend Outlook - The company has limited new capital expenditures in its domestic feed segment, and its net cash flow for debt repayment has significantly increased over the past three years, with the interest-bearing debt ratio dropping to 8.5% by Q3 2025 [2] - The increase in free cash flow is anticipated to support the higher dividend payout ratio, reflecting the long-term competitive advantage of the domestic business transitioning into dividend value [2] Group 3: Overseas Growth Path - The global feed market is substantial, with a projected production of 139.6 million tons in 2024, and the overseas market capacity is estimated at 108.1 million tons, with significant growth expected in regions like Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia [3] - The company has established a strong presence in Vietnam, becoming a leader in aquatic feed, and is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of approximately 35% in overseas feed sales from 2022 to 2025 [3] - The planned spin-off of the overseas business is expected to enhance management and incentive structures, facilitating clearer mid-term planning and execution [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 4.493 billion, 4.833 billion, and 6.8 billion yuan, reflecting a downward revision due to changes in pig prices and supply expectations [4] - The company is assigned a target price of 69.10 yuan based on a price-to-book ratio of 23.8x for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating due to its strong domestic feed business and promising overseas performance [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Hai Da Group, with a target price of 69.10 RMB [5][4]. Core Views - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio for 2025-2027 from 30% to 50% and has submitted an application for the spin-off of its overseas business for listing in Hong Kong. The current market undervalues the domestic dividend potential and overseas growth opportunities of Hai Da Group [1][5]. - The domestic feed business is expected to grow significantly, with a projected 20% increase in sales volume by 2025, outpacing the industry growth rate of approximately 6%. The company's market share is anticipated to accelerate, supported by resilient profit margins [2][3]. - The overseas feed business is on a clear growth trajectory, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 35% from 2022 to 2025. The company plans to enhance its production capacity in key strategic regions, aiming for a total overseas feed capacity of approximately 890,000 tons by 2028 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Business - The domestic feed business is expected to achieve a sales volume of 44.3 million tons by 2030, with a strong competitive edge and stable profit margins. The company has shown resilience in maintaining its profit per ton, with only a minor decrease compared to industry peers [2][3]. - The company’s net debt ratio has significantly decreased to 8.5% as of Q3 2025, indicating improved financial health and the potential for increased free cash flow, which supports the higher dividend payout [2][3]. Overseas Business - The global feed market is projected to reach 1.396 billion tons by 2024, with significant growth expected in regions such as Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. The company has established a strong presence in Vietnam and is expanding its operations in other strategic markets [3][4]. - The spin-off of the overseas business is expected to streamline management and incentivize growth, with plans to increase production capacity by 3 million tons in key regions by 2028 [3][4]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 44.93 billion, 48.33 billion, and 68.0 billion RMB, reflecting a downward adjustment due to changes in pig prices. The target price is based on a price-to-book ratio of 23.8x for 2026, considering the company's competitive advantages and growth potential [4][5].