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宏观经济研究:中国经济结构失衡分析
Great Wall Securities· 2025-09-19 08:19
Economic Structure Imbalance - Since the reform and opening up, China's economic structure has shown imbalances in certain sectors due to excessive government intervention during the catch-up phase (1978-1992 and 2012-present) [1] - The economic growth theory divides growth into two phases: catch-up and balanced growth, with the former relying on capital accumulation and learning effects [1] - Empirical analysis indicates that excessive intervention has led to a situation where actual social capital returns are significantly lower than fitted values, indicating capital surplus [1] Government Intervention - Government intervention is necessary to internalize learning externalities and achieve socially optimal capital accumulation [1] - However, insufficient or excessive intervention can lead to economic imbalances, depending on the rationality of policies and accurate estimation of learning elasticity coefficients [1] - The report suggests that the capital income share has been increasing, indicating a need for reform in income distribution to correct structural imbalances [1] Reform Measures - Continuous market-oriented reforms and reduction of unnecessary interventions are essential to correct structural imbalances and promote long-term economic growth [1] - Key reform measures include standardizing investment attraction behaviors, allowing inefficient firms to exit the market, and deepening financial reforms to reflect true capital costs [1] - The income distribution system needs to shift from capital-biased to labor-friendly to enhance domestic consumption and economic resilience [1]