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研报掘金丨招商证券:大升泡泡玛特目标价50%,至410港元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-22 06:58
Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates a significant upward revision of Bubble Mart's (9992.HK) earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 54% to 77%, with the target price raised by 50% from HKD 272 to HKD 410, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Earnings Forecast - China Merchants Securities has increased Bubble Mart's earnings forecast for this year by 64% to CNY 11.352 billion, for next year by 77% to CNY 17.759 billion, and for 2027 by 54% to CNY 22.601 billion [1] Management Guidance - Bubble Mart's management has guided that this year's revenue will exceed CNY 30 billion, with a net profit margin of approximately 35%, surpassing market expectations and demonstrating strong confidence in operational execution and market demand [1] Store Expansion - The company plans to double its global new store openings this year to over 200, currently operating 128 overseas stores, with expectations that the number of stores in the United States will exceed 60 by the end of the year [1] Product Strategy - The management highlighted that the Labubu plush mobile phone accessory is expected to become a bestseller, indicating an acceleration in the expansion of high-frequency lifestyle SKUs to enhance daily brand interaction [1] Revenue Composition - Plush products have surpassed figurines to become the largest category, accounting for 44% of total revenue, which is expected to improve overall profit margins [1] Brand Development - With continuous brand strength enhancement, gradual expansion of the omnichannel model, and ongoing development of IP monetization pathways, the company is poised to become a world-class cultural IP brand, reinforcing the strong "Buy" rating [1]