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不看汇率,用混合算法:中国、美国、欧盟的一季度GDP谁更高呢?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-08 05:27
Economic Performance Overview - The economic performance of the three major global economic centers for Q1 2025 has been officially released, with the US GDP showing a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.06% but a year-on-year increase of 2%, reaching $73,231 billion [1] - The European Union's nominal GDP for Q1 2025 was €46,123.756 billion (approximately $48,538 billion), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6% after adjusting for price fluctuations [3] - China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, significantly outperforming both the US and EU, driven by state-led large project investments and preemptive export activities due to trade war concerns [3] Comparative Analysis - The US economy remains more dynamic and innovative compared to the EU, which is experiencing structural weaknesses due to stagnant production efficiency and high energy costs [3] - China's nominal GDP in Q1 2025 reached ¥318,758 billion, but when converted to USD using the exchange rate method, it amounted to only $44,420.5 billion, falling behind both the US and EU [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the purchasing power parity (PPP) ratio for the Chinese yuan against the US dollar in 2025 is 3.43, indicating that goods priced at $100 in the US would cost ¥343 in China [6][8] GDP Calculation Methods - The article discusses three methods for calculating GDP: exchange rate method, purchasing power parity, and a mixed method that combines both [5][11] - Under the purchasing power method, China's Q1 2025 GDP would be $92,932.36 billion, which is 2.1 times higher than the exchange rate method figure [8] - The mixed method, which allocates 60% to the exchange rate method and 40% to the purchasing power method, results in China's GDP being $63,928 billion for Q1 2025, surpassing the EU's GDP of $61,576.4 billion [12][13] GDP Rankings - According to the exchange rate method, the GDP rankings for Q1 2025 are: US ($73,231 billion), EU ($48,538 billion), and China ($44,420.5 billion) [12] - When using the purchasing power method, the rankings change to: China ($92,932.36 billion), US ($73,231 billion), and EU ($70,268.72 billion) [12] - The mixed method rankings place the US first ($73,231 billion), followed by China ($63,928 billion) and the EU ($61,576.4 billion) [13]