美玉米产量预估

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【光大研究每日速递】20250818
光大证券研究· 2025-08-17 23:07
Banking Sector - The profitability growth rate of commercial banks improved in Q2 2025, with state-owned banks recording a growth rate of 1.1% [5] - The expansion of bank balance sheets is steady, with loan and non-loan asset growth rates increasing by 0.2 and 3.8 percentage points respectively compared to Q1 [5] - Despite weak absolute and relative returns in the banking sector since Q3, the dividend yield advantage has marginally improved, indicating potential for future bank stock performance [5] Commodities - COMEX copper non-commercial shorts reached a new low since January 2012, influenced by an increased probability of a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar [6] - The copper market faces inventory pressure in the short term, but tight supply from mines and scrap copper is expected to support prices in Q4 as demand from power grids and air conditioning rises [6] Oil and Gas - Major international oil companies reported a decline in operating performance for H1 2025, with ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and Total experiencing net profit decreases of 15.3%, 39.7%, 22.9%, and 31.2% respectively [9] - The IEA has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to an increase of 680,000 barrels per day [9] Agriculture - The USDA's report indicates that the forecast for U.S. corn yield for the 2025/26 season is at a record high of 188.8 bushels per acre (approximately 4.80 tons per acre), up by 7.8 bushels from the previous month [6] - The total corn production forecast was significantly raised from 15.705 billion bushels to 16.742 billion bushels (approximately 425 million tons), exceeding the previous record of 14 billion bushels set in 2023/24 [6] Coal Mining - A new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" was released, featuring 34 chapters and 777 articles, with 56 new articles added and 353 articles substantially modified [7] - The current safety inspection situation remains strict, with the capacity utilization rate of 462 coal mines still below last year's level, indicating ongoing regulatory pressure [7] Company Performance - Jiangyin Bank reported a 10.5% year-on-year increase in revenue to 2.4 billion, with a net profit growth of 16.6% to 850 million in H1 2025 [8] - Huafeng Chemical's H1 2025 revenue decreased by 11.7% to 12.1 billion, with a net profit decline of 35.2% to 983 million, reflecting pressure from the downtrend in spandex and adipic acid markets [8]