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华润饮料:深度报告:清润至本,方兴未艾-20250611
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-11 02:40
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage [3][8][10]. Core Views - China Resources Beverage, as a leading bottled water company, benefits from both revenue and profit growth. The company is expected to enjoy the industry's penetration rate increase and has made initial progress in its beverage business with the "Zhiben Qingrun" chrysanthemum tea series. The company is projected to improve its profitability through various cost-reduction strategies [3][8][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Beverage is a subsidiary of China Resources Group, focusing on bottled water and beverage businesses. Its core brand "Yibao" is a leading bottled water brand in China, with a market share of 18.4% in 2023 [5][15]. Bottled Water Business - The bottled water market in China has grown from 152.6 billion yuan in 2018 to 215 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.1%. The company aims to increase its self-production rate from 32% in 2023 to over 60% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to significantly enhance profitability [6][8][29]. Beverage Business - The company has been exploring the beverage sector since 2011, launching various products. The "Zhiben Qingrun" series has gained a market share of 38.5% in 2023. The company aims to improve channel efficiency and reduce sales expenses through continuous product launches and increased distribution [7][8][29]. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 140.7 billion yuan, 150.6 billion yuan, and 161.4 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Corresponding net profits are projected to be 19.2 billion yuan, 22.4 billion yuan, and 26.1 billion yuan, with EPS of 0.8, 0.93, and 1.09 yuan, respectively [8][29].