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RBC拆解石油天然气行业:北美市场承压 国际市场分化中觅机遇
智通财经网· 2025-07-03 07:15
Industry Activity - North American market is under pressure, with a projected average of 558 land drilling rigs in the U.S. by Q2 2025, a 2% year-over-year decline, and an annual estimate of 544 rigs in the U.S. and 190 in Canada [1] - International drilling activity is expected to average 887 rigs in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline, influenced by reduced activities in Mexico, West Africa, and the Middle East [1] - Demand for fracturing horsepower in the U.S. Permian Basin is projected at 6.62 million horsepower, a 15% year-over-year decline, indicating pressure on unconventional oil and gas development in North America [1] Company Performance - Schlumberger (SLB) is expected to achieve Q2 2025 revenues of $8.473 billion and EBITDA of $2.021 billion, with annual revenues and EBITDA projected at $35.81 billion and $4.8 billion respectively, showcasing resilience in a complex market [1] - Ensign Energy Services is forecasted to have annual revenues of $1.59 billion and EBITDA of $385 million, while Liberty Energy is expected to report revenues of $999 million and EBITDA of $633 million, highlighting the performance disparity in different segments [1] - Subsea 7 leads in offshore and international services with projected revenues of $7.188 billion and EBITDA of $1.429 billion, while TechnipFMC is expected to report revenues of $9.994 billion and EBITDA of $1.76 billion, reflecting advantages in global positioning [1] Industry Trends - Strong demand for natural gas is anticipated, supported by the advancement of LNG Canada projects, despite pressures from oil price fluctuations on drilling and completion activities [2] - International markets may see slight declines in overall activity, but there is growth potential in offshore and international drilling, particularly in deepwater and unconventional resource development [2] - Technological advancements, such as automated drilling and digital oilfield management, are crucial for industry transformation, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [2] Investment Ratings - RBC has assigned "Outperform" and "Sector Perform" ratings to several companies, setting target prices for Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton at $48, $46, and $28 respectively [3] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with technological advantages, cost control capabilities, and market diversity, as these firms are more likely to achieve excess returns amid industry volatility [3] Conclusion - The oil and gas industry faces challenges from price volatility and market competition, but technological advancements, rising natural gas demand, and international market potential present structural growth opportunities [4] - Companies with core competencies are expected to achieve sustainable development through innovation and global expansion in the context of energy transition [4]