Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2025 was primarily impacted by declining international oil prices, with a total revenue of 398.22 billion yuan, down 5.30% year-on-year, and a net profit of 122.08 billion yuan, down 11.49% year-on-year [1][2] - Despite the pressure from lower oil prices, the company demonstrated strong profitability resilience through production growth and cost control, achieving a net production of 777.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 6.95% increase year-on-year [2] - The company’s average realized oil price was $66.47 per barrel, a decrease of 13.4% year-on-year, while natural gas prices increased by 3.0% to $7.95 per thousand cubic feet [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 85.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.28% year-on-year and 18.28% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 20.11 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year and 38.00% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company’s operating cash flow was 209.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.85 billion yuan compared to the previous year, mainly due to reduced oil and gas sales revenue [3] Cost Management - The company achieved a barrel of oil equivalent cost of $27.9, maintaining a cost advantage [2] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 0.99%, 1.95%, 0.42%, and 0.21% respectively, with slight increases in most areas due to production growth [3] Resource Development - CNOOC's proven reserves reached 7.77 billion barrels, with a reserve life of 10 years, supporting long-term production growth [7] - The company has 80 ongoing projects, including the successful launch of 16 new projects, which are expected to contribute to future growth [7] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2026-2028 is 145.92 billion yuan, 150.17 billion yuan, and 163.76 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.4, 13.0, and 11.9 [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1][8]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2025 was primarily impacted by declining international oil prices, with a total revenue of CNY 398.22 billion, down 5.30% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 122.08 billion, down 11.49% year-on-year [1][2]. - Despite the pressure from lower oil prices, CNOOC demonstrated strong profitability resilience through production growth and cost control, achieving a net production of 777.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 6.95% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has a solid resource reserve, with confirmed reserves reaching 7.77 billion barrels and a reserve life of 10 years, which supports long-term growth [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, CNOOC reported a revenue of CNY 85.72 billion, a decrease of 9.28% year-on-year and 18.28% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of CNY 20.11 billion, down 5.48% year-on-year and 38.00% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average realized oil price for 2025 was USD 66.47 per barrel, a decline of 13.4% year-on-year, while the average natural gas price increased by 3.0% to USD 7.95 per thousand cubic feet [2]. Cost Management - CNOOC's cost per barrel of oil equivalent decreased to USD 27.9, reflecting ongoing cost advantages [2]. - The company maintained a stable cash flow with a net cash flow from operating activities of CNY 209.04 billion, despite a decrease of CNY 11.85 billion compared to the previous year [3]. Shareholder Returns - CNOOC distributed a total dividend of CNY 54.76 billion in 2025, with a payout ratio of 44.85% and a dividend yield of 3.82% [3]. Growth Prospects - The company is expanding its resource reserves and has 80 ongoing projects, with significant progress in new projects like the Guyana Yellowtail [7]. - CNOOC's net profit forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are CNY 145.92 billion, CNY 150.17 billion, and CNY 163.76 billion, respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [8][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved a significant increase in oil and gas production while continuing to compress costs, indicating a strong competitive position. The upward trend in oil prices enhances the investment value of the company [4][8] - In 2025, the company reported total revenue of 398.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 122.08 billion yuan, down 11.49% year-on-year [3][10] - The company’s net oil and gas production reached a record high of 777.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [5][6] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for Q4 2025 was 85.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.28% year-on-year and 18.28% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The average cost per barrel of oil equivalent was 27.9 USD, a reduction of 0.62 USD from the previous year, reinforcing the company's cost advantage [5] - The company plans to maintain a stable capital expenditure budget of 112 to 122 billion yuan for 2026 [7] Dividend Policy - The board has proposed a final dividend of 0.55 HKD per share (tax included), totaling 26.14 billion HKD for the year, with a total dividend payout of 60.84 billion HKD for 2025, representing a payout ratio of 45.0% [8] - The company is expected to benefit from rising global oil prices due to geopolitical risks, enhancing its investment appeal [8] Earnings Forecast - Projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 161.69 billion yuan, 170.15 billion yuan, and 180.58 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.4%, 5.2%, and 6.1% [8][10] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) for these years are estimated at 12.03, 11.43, and 10.77 [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 22.95 [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 97.73 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 3.55 billion, down 13.2% year-on-year, which was below the forecast of HKD 3.85 billion [1] - The company has improved its gross margin by optimizing gas source costs, with a retail gas gross margin of HKD 0.54 per cubic meter, up by HKD 0.01 year-on-year [2] - The company plans to continue share buybacks and has increased its dividend payout ratio to approximately 61%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8 percentage points [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2025 was HKD 97.73 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 4.8% [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was HKD 3.55 billion, down 13.2% year-on-year [10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at HKD 1.53 [10] Gas Sales and Demand - Retail gas sales volume increased by 0.7% year-on-year to 40.18 billion cubic meters, outperforming the national average growth rate of 0.1% [2] - The residential gas volume grew by 4.9% year-on-year to 10.53 billion cubic meters, while industrial gas volume saw a slight increase of 0.3% to 20.48 billion cubic meters [2] Business Development - The company added 2.152 million new residential users in 2025, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, with the proportion of old house connections rising from 21.4% in 2024 to 23.1% in 2025 [3] - The company’s comprehensive energy business achieved a revenue of HKD 1.97 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with a gross profit of HKD 420 million, up 16.0% year-on-year [4] Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts a decrease in net profit for 2026 and 2027 by 17% and 22% respectively, adjusting the net profit estimates to HKD 3.54 billion and HKD 3.69 billion [5][28] - The target price of HKD 22.95 is based on a 15x PE for 2026 estimates, reflecting a premium over the five-year historical average of 11x PE [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry and related companies [6]. Core Insights - The prolonged conflict in the Middle East may lead to energy supply risks for Asia-Pacific economies, which heavily rely on energy imports, particularly oil and gas [1][14]. - As oil and gas inventories deplete, there will be increased pressure on Asia-Pacific countries to substitute coal for gas in power generation, potentially driving up coal demand [2]. - The report predicts that the price of Australian coal could reach between $239 and $386 per ton due to the significant premium on oil prices in the region [3]. - Domestic coal prices in China are expected to rise to around 850 RMB per ton, supported by the cost of coal from Xinjiang [4]. - The report recommends several coal companies, including Yancoal Australia and China Shenhua, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated price increases [5][8]. Summary by Sections Energy Supply Risks - Asia-Pacific economies, particularly Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, have a high dependency on Middle Eastern oil and gas, with respective import shares of 97%, 75%, and 64% for oil [1][25]. - The natural gas inventory days for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are projected to be only 31, 40, and 12 days respectively by the end of 2025, indicating a weak safety margin [1][27]. Coal Demand and Pricing - The depletion of oil and gas inventories will force a shift towards coal for electricity generation in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan [2]. - The report estimates that the price of Australian coal could reach $239 to $386 per ton, driven by the high oil price premiums and the tight supply-demand balance [3][5]. Domestic Coal Market in China - The report anticipates that domestic coal prices in China will rise to around 850 RMB per ton, supported by the cost structure of Xinjiang coal [4]. - The report highlights that the domestic coal supply will be bolstered by Xinjiang coal, which is expected to fill the gap left by reduced imports [4]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the rising coal prices, including Yancoal Australia, China Shenhua, and others [5][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 131.51 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 3.24% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.19% to 4.68 billion yuan [7][8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.14 yuan per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 75.33% and a dividend yield of 5.1% [8] - The total sales gas volume grew by 7.6% in 2025, with retail gas prices continuing to rise and new long-term contracts ensuring stable platform trading gas development [7][9] - The company is undergoing a privatization of Xin'ao Energy and plans to list in Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance earnings per share (EPS) by 7% [14][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported total revenue of 131.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.68 billion yuan, an increase of 4.19% [7][8] - The company’s operating profit was 5.19 billion yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year, meeting expectations [9] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities increased by 0.74% to 14.27 billion yuan [10] Business Segments - Natural gas business revenue was 106.01 billion yuan, up 2.16% year-on-year, contributing 55.16% to gross profit [9][12] - Engineering construction and installation revenue decreased by 27.17% to 4.32 billion yuan, while gross margin increased by 5.34 percentage points [12] - The energy production segment saw a significant decline in revenue, down 54.51% to 1.97 billion yuan, primarily due to the sale of a subsidiary [12] - Infrastructure operations revenue increased by 4.95% to 0.59 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 74.18% [12] Strategic Developments - The company signed long-term contracts with ADNOC and Chevron, securing over 7 million tons per year of gas supply, which is linked to stable pricing indices [9][18] - The company’s integrated business model, combining upstream gas sources with downstream customer needs, is expected to enhance operational efficiency [17][18] - The company aims to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of at least 50% of core profits from 2026 to 2028, ensuring a strong return for shareholders [15][19]

Report Title - Natural Gas Market Fundamental Analysis and Outlook - The Current Volatility Reversion is Preparing for the Next Uptrend [1] Report Author - Jin Xiao, Chief Analyst of Energy and Carbon Neutrality at Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The biggest influencing factor for the Q2 market trend is still the change in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The divergence of major natural gas benchmarks is expected to continue in Q2 [2]. - The US natural gas market is in a slightly tight balance, and the NYMEX gas price will mostly fluctuate around 3 USD/MMBtu in Q2, with limited downside and potential upside in summer [2]. - The key for the European and Asian markets is to replenish sufficient inventories during the off - season after the Qatar gas interruption. Volatility may revert in Q2, and if the Middle East situation doesn't improve, TTF and JKM may test the 30 USD/MMBtu mark in June [2]. Market Analysis by Region US Market - The US natural gas market balance indicates a slightly tight balance. Supply will grow significantly in 2026, and there won't be a large supply - demand gap [2]. - External demand for US LNG is strong due to Qatar's production halt, and exports to Mexico's PNG will increase, but there are capacity limitations [2]. - The demand of the US gas - fired power generation, the most important downstream, is sensitive to gas prices. Current gas prices neither encourage nor drag it [2]. - The NYMEX gas price will mostly remain around 3 USD/MMBtu in Q2, with limited downside and potential for an upward trend in summer [2]. European and Asian Markets - After the Qatar gas interruption, the focus is to replenish sufficient inventories in the off - season for the 26/27 heating season. Each day of Qatar's production halt requires price adjustment in the European and Asian gas markets [2]. - Volatility may revert in Q2, and if the Middle East situation doesn't improve, a significant increase in volatility may occur in June, and TTF and JKM may test the 30 USD/MMBtu mark [2]. Data Tables and Charts Qatar LNG Export Data - Qatar's LNG export volume data from 2022 - 2026 is presented in a chart [8]. - The export structure in 2025 shows destinations such as China, India, South Korea, etc. [10] European Market Data - Data on PNG from Norway, Russia and other sources, LNG, production, demand, and inventory changes from 2021 - 2026F are provided [13]. - Charts show GIE EU natural gas storage utilization rate, EU - 27+UK LNG import volume, Russian LNG export volume and its exports to Europe, EU power generation by power source, and EU gas - fired power generation [15][18][20][24] Asian Market Data - Data on China's domestic gas, imported pipeline gas, imported LNG, total demand, and demand by sector from 2022 - 2026F are presented [26]. - Charts show Northeast Asia (China, Japan, South Korea) LNG import volume, China's LNG import volume, Japan and South Korea's LNG import volume [27][29][32] US Market Data - Data on US dry gas production, PNG imports from Canada, total supply, demand by sector, LNG and PNG exports, and inventory changes from 2020 - 2026E are provided [33]. - Charts show the relationship between US dry gas production and HH, US natural gas inventory deviation and Nymex front - month contract, US power generation growth rate by power source, US power industry's natural gas consumption, and US LNG export volume [34][37][45][48]

Core Viewpoint - A joint statement from 11 countries, including New Zealand and Singapore, emphasizes the importance of maintaining open and resilient supply chains in light of potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly affecting oil, gas, petrochemicals, and essential goods [1]. Group 1 - The joint statement was issued by New Zealand, Costa Rica, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Panama, Rwanda, Singapore, Switzerland, the UAE, and Uruguay [1]. - The statement highlights concerns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could severely disrupt global supply chains, especially for critical products like oil, gas, and fertilizers [1]. - The countries reaffirm their commitment to maintaining supply chains that are open, diversified, transparent, competitive, and resilient [1].

Core Viewpoint - A joint statement was issued by New Zealand, Costa Rica, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Panama, Rwanda, Singapore, Switzerland, the UAE, and Uruguay, emphasizing the importance of maintaining open, diversified, transparent, competitive, and resilient supply chains in light of potential disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [1] Group 1 - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could severely disrupt global supply chains, particularly affecting oil, natural gas, petrochemical products, and essential downstream derivatives such as fertilizers [1] - The countries involved reaffirm their commitment to ensuring the resilience of supply chains amidst these potential disruptions [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 12.44, and it is rated as outperforming the market [2][4]. Core Views - The company's operating performance demonstrates resilience, with a maintained high level of dividend payout. For 2025, the total revenue was RMB 2,864.47 billion, a decrease of 2.50% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 157.30 billion, down 4.48% year-on-year. The company continues to show long-term investment value, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4][6]. - The company is adjusting its profit forecast due to rising international oil prices, with expected net profits for 2026-2028 at RMB 182.16 billion, RMB 182.58 billion, and RMB 183.84 billion, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2x, 12.2x, and 12.1x [6][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 2,864.47 billion, with a net profit of RMB 157.30 billion. The fourth quarter revenue was RMB 695.21 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.98% [4][10]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 was RMB 290.90 billion, with a projected EBITDA of RMB 349.83 billion for 2026 [8][12]. Production and Operations - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production reached 1,841.9 million barrels in 2025, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year. Domestic marketable natural gas production was 5,201.2 billion cubic feet, up 4.9% [9][10]. - The refining business is transitioning positively, with the company processing 1,375.9 million barrels of crude oil in 2025, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year. The company has also seen a significant increase in chemical new materials production, which rose by 62.7% [9][10]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - The capital expenditure for 2025 was RMB 2,690.89 billion, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year. The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.25 per share, maintaining a high payout ratio of 54.7% [9][10]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with the dividend payout ratio reaching its highest level in five years [9][10].