currently also in camp that you want to be long going into back half of 2026 but really am not convinced Bitcoin/ETH/SOL/HYPE will be the fastest horses for risk assetsfejau (@fejau_inc):@Bing0to yeah the thesis has been- macro growth scare/shutdown impact/monetary liquidity concerns in Q4- same time as everyone selling cause 4 year cycle top- victory laps about 4 year cycle being right again- q4 dat unwind which has been ongoing, dont think they will be big sellers ...

RT Mayne (@Tradermayne)My thesis for remaining bullish going into the end of the year has been built on a few things that I've covered repeatedly over the last 1 month+ on YouTube and here.Summarizing my thoughts below.4 year cycle, I've been a staunch 4 year cycle believer, it looks like a 4 year cycle, it acts like a 4 year cycle, chances are it's a 4 year cycle. That means I expect the top to form in Q4 of 2025 or early Q1 2026.BTC/Gold ratio, Gold generally leads BTC breaks out by 60-90 days, couple wit ...

Market Cycle Analysis - The analysis suggests a belief in a 4-year cycle, anticipating a market peak in Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026 [1] - The analysis indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) hasn't experienced its "blow off top" compared to tech stocks, gold, and some crypto companies, suggesting a potential future parabolic rally [2] - The analysis points to an upcoming weekly cycle low for BTC, potentially leading to a push towards new All-Time Highs (ATHs) [3] Potential Market Drivers - The analysis speculates on potential market-pumping strategies by Trump leading into 2026, drawing parallels with the 2019 cycle and government reopening [3] Risk Assessment - The analysis acknowledges the possibility that the 4-year cycle may no longer be valid, but indicates a willingness to remain bullish if the market continues to rise [4] - The analysis anticipates a mostly bearish 2026 if the 4-year cycle holds, expecting significantly lower BTC prices but not necessarily an 80%+ drawdown [5] - The analysis considers a bearish scenario where the current rally fails to create a new ATH, suggesting a potential distribution phase with the top already in [5]

Market Cycle Analysis - The crypto market's four-year cycle is unlikely to produce similar market results as in the past [1] - Crypto natives who have been following the market since 2016 or earlier may be misguided in expecting the same patterns [1] Sentiment Analysis - 100% of the sentiment is that the four-year cycle will not produce similar markets [1]

Respect to Mando but the “4 year cycle” comes from stocks.CounterParty TV (@counterpartytv):Mando explains why he thinks the 4 year cycle is over“I don’t think we’re at the top. I don’t believe 4 year cycles, the market structure has changed”“I think we’ll follow macro assets like stocks and gold and they don’t give a shit about 4 year cycles” https://t.co/3IJk09VioV ...

RT Mayne (@Tradermayne)The real 4 year cycle. ...

RT plur daddy (@plur_daddy)Weekend thoughts on BTC.1. The main issue capping BTC price has been OG selling. Putting myself in their shoes, this year was a logical time to sell. It hit the mythical $100k price target. The ideology around it had significantly shifted from being an expression of Libertarian idealism into a mainstream asset co-opted by Wall Street and the Trump admin. There were toppish signals from the TCs. There was finally sufficient liquidity to exit large bags. This was the apex of the 4 y ...

Market Sentiment - The market is anticipating a bullish Q4, hoping the 4-year cycle will hold true [1]

4 year cycle is not deadBTC pumped to new ATHETH pumped to new ATHHigh caps pumping to new ATHAltcoins will pump nextParabolic retail mania is coming in Q4 ...

i give green line 15% probability, blue line 60% probability, red line 20% probabilitybuy as much bitcoin as you can if it starts trading below $100k this year and early 2026, sell into 2028 at much higher pricesi also agree 4 year cycle is no longer valid just think we'll be bearish for slightly longer than @plur_daddy does, think uptrend starts aggressively ~Q2 2026think worst case if we somehow get a recession would be $50k (5%)plur daddy (@plur_daddy):People asked me to clarify a few things so building ...