Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) closed 2025 with a negative yearly return of 6%, marking the first time in a post-halving year that it ended in the red, deviating from historical trends [2][6] - The traditional "4-year cycle" associated with Bitcoin's halving events is being questioned, with some analysts suggesting it may be evolving due to market maturation rather than being entirely broken [4][6] Historical Performance - Historically, Bitcoin's price has peaked in the year following the halving, with significant positive returns observed in previous cycles: - 2012-2013: +8,480% to +7,000% - 2016-2017: +285% to +1,300% - 2020-2021: +560% - 2024-2025: -6% to -7%, the weakest post-halving performance on record [3][4] Market Dynamics - The impact of Bitcoin's halving events appears to be diminishing in an increasingly institutionalized market, with the 2024 halving reducing issuance from 1.7% to 0.85% annually, as approximately 94% of Bitcoin is already mined [7] - Institutional dominance has increased, with the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 leading to cumulative inflows of approximately $56–$87 billion, tying Bitcoin more closely to traditional risk assets [7] Correlation and Macro Factors - Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rose significantly in 2025, indicating its behavior as a "macro asset" sensitive to interest rates, liquidity, and equity sentiment [7] - Macro headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and Fed policy tightening, contributed to Bitcoin's underperformance, with it lagging behind gold, which performed well as a traditional hedge [7] Market Sentiment and Speculation - The early bull run in 2024 was driven by ETF hype, peaking early in 2025 before a correction occurred, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [7] - Reduced retail speculation is evident, with lower volatility and perpetual futures basis rates reflecting a more mature trading environment dominated by institutional players, accounting for 60% or more of trading volume [7]

Market Outlook - Bitwise expects new Bitcoin highs in 2026 [1] - The report suggests the end of the 4-year cycle for Bitcoin [1]

Market Trends - Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are experiencing declines as traders assess the potential end of a 4-year cycle [1]

Market Trend - Crypto's 4-year cycle is being questioned [1]

Market Trend & Prediction - Bitcoin's potential peak in 2025 is being discussed [1] - The validity of the 4-year cycle for Bitcoin is being questioned [1]