Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's recent decline may signal a turning point in December, with K33 Research suggesting a rebound is more likely than further collapse [1][3] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has faced significant selling pressure, particularly from spot bitcoin ETFs, which shifted from being net buyers to net sellers in November [2] - CME futures activity has reached a multi-year low, indicating traditional finance's hesitance, while Bitcoin's price has underperformed against equities, hitting its lowest level against the Nasdaq since late 2024 [2] Market Sentiment - K33 Research believes the market is overreacting to long-term threats while overlooking short-term signs of strength, arguing that the potential for significant upside is more realistic than a repeat of an 80% drawdown [3] Support Levels - Bitcoin is currently trading near strong historical support levels of approximately $70,000 to $80,000, with cautious positioning in futures markets and low leverage in perpetual markets [4] Long-term Risks - Long-term concerns, such as risks from quantum computing and potential sales by major players like MicroStrategy or instability at Tether, are deemed unlikely to impact the market in the near term [5] Future Outlook - K33 Research anticipates supportive policy changes, including potential 401(k) access to crypto and a pro-crypto shift at the Federal Reserve, which could create structural upside for Bitcoin [6] - The current valuation of Bitcoin is seen as driven more by fear than by fundamentals, suggesting a cautious market may soon present opportunities for bold positioning [6]