Core Insights - Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant net outflows, totaling $186.5 million on November 3, marking a decline in investor confidence as all Bitcoin ETFs recorded zero inflows [1][2] - Over the past four trading days, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a total capital exit of more than $1.34 billion since late October, coinciding with a sharp drop in Bitcoin's price to $104,500, down over 8% in the past week [2][3] - The market faced widespread liquidations, with over 336,000 traders affected and $1.36 billion in leveraged positions liquidated within 24 hours, exacerbating the sell-off pressure on Bitcoin [3] Short-Term and Long-Term Holder Dynamics - Short-term Bitcoin holders have been the most active sellers since October 10, with average realized prices for those holding for 1-3 months at $107,160, indicating recent buyers are offloading assets as prices dip below their cost basis [4] - In contrast, longer-term holders, particularly those in the 3-6 month and 6-12 month cohorts, are showing resilience, with "smart money" in the 3-6 month range beginning to accumulate again [5] - This accumulation by mid-term holders may signal a potential price rebound for Bitcoin, although it appears incomplete as they await further market capitulation [6] Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technical analysts suggest that Bitcoin may soon test its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) near $102,000, a critical level that, if lost, could lead to a deeper psychological correction in the market [7] - The current psychological support level is around $93,561, which is the average cost basis for the 6-12 month holding group, indicating potential vulnerability for mid-term holders if prices continue to decline [6]