50-week SMA
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Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-06-30 02:42
Market Analysis & Trends - Bitcoin experienced a 7% increase last week [1] - Bitcoin is currently trading around $108,000-$109,000, not far from its all-time high [2] - The bull market support band, consisting of the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA, ranges from approximately $95,600 to $98,400 [2] - Historically, the 50-week SMA has been a reliable indicator of the bull market [3] - Q3 pullbacks below the bull market support band have occurred in the past, specifically in Q3 2023 and Q3 2024 [3][4] - The integrity of the bull market remains intact as long as the 50-week SMA holds as support, currently around $86,000 [8][12] Investment Strategy & Risk Management - The industry suggests Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) for long-term investments [5] - Bitcoin is considered a better investment than altcoins due to its potential for upside and minimized downside risk [5][16][17] - Maintaining a portfolio primarily in Bitcoin is favored due to the expectation that altcoins will continue to decline relative to Bitcoin [17] Technical Indicators & Future Outlook - If Bitcoin does not fall below the 2024 high, the next rally could lead to a new all-time high [7] - Prior Bitcoin peaks have often coincided with the 200-week SMA crossing the previous all-time high [10][11] - Market volatility is expected this week due to upcoming data releases, including hires, job openings, unemployment rate, and inflation data [18][19]