Core Insights - Vanguard is shifting its investment strategy for 2026, recommending a portfolio mix of 40% equity and 60% fixed income, a significant change from the traditional 60% equity and 40% fixed income approach [1] Investment Strategy - Vanguard anticipates that high-quality US and foreign bonds will yield returns of approximately 4% to 5%, comparable to US equities but with lower risk [2] - The firm projects that non-US equities will outperform US stocks over the next decade, with expected annual returns of 5.1% to 7.1% for international stocks, surpassing US stock returns [2] Time Horizon and Risk Tolerance - The new investment position is suggested for investors with a medium-term outlook, particularly over the next three to five years, depending on individual risk tolerance and time horizon [3][4] Market Concerns - Vanguard's advice is influenced by concerns regarding a potential AI bubble, with the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks being central to the S&P 500's growth, which has seen a 17% increase this year following a 23% gain in 2024 [5][6] - There are growing worries about the overvaluation of equity markets, which Vanguard views as a risk rather than an opportunity, suggesting that US fixed income could provide diversification if AI does not lead to higher economic growth, a scenario with a 25% to 30% probability [6] Long-term Investment Considerations - Experts suggest that given the current high equity valuations and increased bond yields, a more conservative portfolio may offer a better risk-return profile for the coming decade, reinforcing the importance of diversification [7]