Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin continues to trend lower despite a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, indicating a complex macroeconomic environment ahead [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction to Fed Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including a planned purchase of $40 billion in T-Bills, mark its first balance sheet expansion since mid-2022, reflecting a shift in monetary policy [2]. - Despite the rate cut, Bitcoin has declined by 2% in the past 24 hours, trading just under $90,200, with market sentiment indicating a bearish outlook [3]. - Prediction markets show a mere 17% chance of a "Santa rally" for Bitcoin in 2025, with a 5% decrease in the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 compared to dropping to $69,000 [3]. Group 2: Economic Concerns and Future Outlook - Analysts express concern that the potential for further easing by the Fed is diminishing, as indicated by downward revisions in rate-cut expectations for 2026 [5]. - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 may necessitate looser fiscal policies and a more dovish Fed to sustain economic growth, which could lead to a temporary mix of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing [6]. - However, this combination poses risks of rekindling inflation and increasing long-term interest rates, which could negatively impact global risk assets, including Bitcoin [7].