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20VC x SaaStr This Week: Why Most VCs Need to Step Aside, What’s Really Defensible Today, and How to Actually Attach to AI Revenue
SaaStr· 2025-11-14 17:47
Venture Capital Evolution - The venture capital playbook is considered broken, with significant changes needed in response to the evolving landscape, particularly due to AI [1][2] - Sequoia's leadership transition reflects a broader industry truth that many VCs and executives from the last decade are not suited for the next decade [7][28] - The pace of AI evolution is rapid, making knowledge from even six months ago potentially obsolete [5][28] AI Investment Strategy - Successful AI investments require attaching to compute budgets, replacing human headcount, or massively displacing incumbents [29] - Companies that merely use AI to enhance their products are not gaining competitive advantages; this is now seen as a baseline expectation [21][29] - The transition from AI as a tool to AI as a team member is anticipated to drive significant revenue growth [11][30] Deal Dynamics - The quality and speed of competitive clones in the AI space have increased, compressing the time available to build defensible market positions [7][12] - Traditional seed defensibility is considered dead; founders must focus on scaling quickly rather than relying on early product advantages [7][12] Portfolio Construction - Diversification is becoming increasingly critical due to the heightened variance in AI deal outcomes [7][28] - Small fund sizes ($40-100 million) that accept dilution can yield superior returns compared to larger funds maintaining ownership [7][25][30] - The best fundraising processes are characterized by cultivating relationships over time, rather than following a traditional process [31][37] Market Dynamics - The current fundraising environment is described as binary, where companies either secure funding or struggle significantly [27][38] - Companies like DataDog that are closely tied to AI compute infrastructure are performing well, while those like Duolingo that do not replace human roles are facing declines [21][14] Future Outlook - The panel anticipates that 2026 will see AI integrated as a core team member, leading to a revenue explosion [11][30] - The ongoing evolution in venture capital necessitates a reevaluation of strategies and approaches to remain competitive in the changing landscape [33][36]