Summary of Conference Call on China Industrials Industry Overview - The focus is on the **capital goods sector** in China, particularly driven by **industrial upgrades**, **technology iterations**, a **domestic replacement cycle**, and **overseas opportunities**. [1][9] - **Li-battery equipment** and **construction machinery** are highlighted as being in a favorable position. [1] Key Insights Automation and General Machinery - Expected **growth recovery** in automation at approximately **5% year-on-year** in 2026, driven by: 1. Replacement demand. 2. New energy no longer being a drag. 3. AI applications creating new capital expenditure demand, such as intelligent robots and PCB equipment. 4. Enhanced competitiveness of advanced equipment manufacturers globally. - Preferred companies include **Inovance** for localization and **Geekplus** for strong orders in warehouse automation. [3] Heavy Industry - **Construction Machinery (CM)** is entering an improving cycle with ongoing domestic recovery and recovering overseas demand. Preferred companies are **Sany Heavy** and **Hengli**. - Anticipated **15% year-on-year growth** in **heavy-duty truck (HDT)** sales in the second half of 2025, primarily driven by electric models, followed by a slowdown to **5% year-on-year growth** in 2026 due to domestic replacement demand. - For **railway equipment**, steady rolling stock deliveries are expected in the second half of 2025 and early 2026, but new orders are projected to decline in 2026. [4] Intelligent/Humanoid Robots - Adoption is expected to ramp up in the second half of 2025, benefiting suppliers and integrators. Preferred companies include **Hengli**, **Inovance**, and **Shuanghuan** for their mass production advantages. [5] New Energy Equipment - Demand for **LiB equipment** is projected to increase by **46%**, **24%**, and **21%** in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reaching a historical cyclical high due to growing demand and technology iterations. - Preferred companies in this sector are **Wuxi Lead** and **Hangke**. - A negative outlook is noted for **solar equipment** in 2026 due to severe overcapacity and sluggish demand. [6] Long-term Growth Drivers - **AI technology diffusion** into intelligent manufacturing and equipment. - Ongoing **localization** of advanced equipment, with current localization rates around **40-45%** for automation and industrial robots, expected to reach **70-80%** by 2030. - **Global expansion** of equipment exports, which have outpaced overall Chinese exports from 2020 to 2025. [19][20] Market Dynamics - The equipment cycle is shifting into an **upcycle** after 3-4 years of downturn, particularly in construction machinery, lithium battery equipment, and automation. [9] - The impact of **anti-involution** on capital goods is viewed as limited, with potential for additional demand in certain sectors. [20] Investment Recommendations - Top picks include **Sany**, **Wuxi Lead**, **Hangke**, **Inovance**, and **Geekplus**. [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading and innovative players in the sector. [17]