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$8 Billion Mistake: Wall Street Underprices Bitcoin Miners By 28% - MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA), Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT), Cipher Mining (NASDAQ:CIFR), Cleanspark (NASDAQ:CLSK)
Benzinga· 2025-11-24 15:21
Core Insights - The Bitcoin mining sector is facing significant valuation distortions due to inaccurate diluted share counts, which are underreported by 20%–33% for key companies, leading to an understatement of their combined market cap by approximately $8 billion [2][4]. Group 1: Valuation Discrepancies - JPMorgan's analysis indicates that the diluted share counts for Cipher Mining Inc and CleanSpark Inc have increased by about 20%, while Riot Platforms Inc and Marathon Digital Holdings Inc have seen increases of over 30% due to various stock issuances [4][6]. - The reliance on Bloomberg's diluted share counts as a reference point for market cap and enterprise value calculations results in investors undervaluing these companies [4][6]. Group 2: Sector Dynamics - The Bitcoin mining sector is bifurcating, with Cipher and CleanSpark benefiting from multi-year high-performance computing contracts and new data center capacities, which are becoming more valuable than Bitcoin mining itself [5]. - Conversely, Riot and Marathon, as the largest holders of Bitcoin, are experiencing reduced price targets due to deteriorating Bitcoin economics and increasing share counts [6]. Group 3: Implications for Investors - The inaccuracies in share counts lead to flawed financial ratios and valuation comparisons, which are critical for identifying genuine investment opportunities in a sector undergoing a significant business model transition towards AI-driven HPC revenue [7].