Activity Upturn in Oil Services
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全球石油服务行业_2026-27 年是否会超预期上行Global Oil Services_ will 2026-27 surprise to the upside_
2025-10-27 00:31
Summary of Global Oil Services Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the **Global Oil Services** industry, focusing on the outlook for 2H25 and FY26, highlighting both positive and negative signals in the market [1][2]. Key Insights 1. **Financial Strength**: The industry is currently in a strong financial position, although it is trading at historically low multiples. Many investors have not capitalized on the O&G capex recovery from 2022-24 [1][2]. 2. **Conflicting Signals**: There are concerns regarding oil supply and price stability, with questions about whether oil will remain oversupplied and if prices might decline. Additionally, there are indications of weakening International/Offshore activity, which could be exacerbated by high consensus expectations [1][2]. 3. **US Market Activity**: The Dallas Fed survey indicates a rapid deterioration in US activity expected in 4Q25, despite a stabilizing rig count. Current consensus expectations for the US market are low [1][2]. 4. **Optimism from Key Players**: Companies like GTT and Viridien express optimism ahead of 3Q25, contrasting with the overall cautious sentiment [1][2]. Regional Activity Recovery 1. **Diverging Opinions**: There are differing views on whether North America or international markets will lead the recovery. SLB suggests North America will remain constrained due to economic challenges, while Halliburton believes it is positioned for recovery [3][4]. 2. **Investment Implications**: The outlook for 2026-27 is more positive than generally perceived, with potential catalysts for the sector. The report suggests that 4Q25 may represent a low point for North America, and given the sector's low valuation (approximately 1.3x EV/Revenue), there is significant upside potential for various stocks [4][6]. Preferred Investment Calls - **Next 6 Months**: GTT (Target Price €193), Viridien (Target Price €94), SLB (Target Price $47.60) - **Next 12 Months**: SBM (Target Price €24), Rubis (Target Price €38.7), Vallourec (Target Price €22.6), Tenaris (Target Price €21) - **Next 18 Months**: Adnoc Drilling (Target Price AED6.76), Saipem (Target Price €3.54), Subsea (Target Price NOK240) - Notably, GTT, SBM, and Rubis are largely de-correlated from oil prices [6]. Conclusion - The Global Oil Services industry is at a critical juncture with mixed signals regarding future activity and investment opportunities. The financial strength of the sector, combined with low valuations, presents potential upside for select stocks, while regional disparities in recovery expectations highlight the complexity of the market landscape [1][4][6].