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Another Record-Beating Month Ahead?
Forbes· 2025-11-01 01:23
Market Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 2.3% in September 2025, slightly below the 2.6% gain in September 2023, indicating a positive trend despite historically weak September performances [2] - From 2000 to 2024, the average return for September was -1.6%, with five years experiencing declines over 7%, highlighting the unusual strength in recent years [2] Sector Performance - In October, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was the top performer, rising by 4.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrials and iShares Russell 2000 gained 2.5% and 1.8%, respectively [3] - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) experienced a late-month drop but still ended October up 3.6% [3] Technical Analysis - The QQQ surpassed the yearly R2 resistance at $623.76, reaching a high of $637.01, with a significant support level now at $589.05 [3] - The NDX 100 Advance/Decline line has been above its WMA since January 2023 and confirmed a new high in October, indicating a bullish trend [4] - The Spyder Trust (SPY) reached a high of $689.70 in October, marking its longest winning streak since August 2021, with support at $636.32 [6] Broader Market Indicators - The NYSE Composite closed at 21,459 in October, down 0.5%, but above the yearly R1 at 20,798, indicating mixed performance [8] - The NYSE All A/D line has been leading the market and closed in October just below the September high, with strong support levels [10] - Despite positive monthly analysis, the weekly NYSE Stocks Only A/D line has shown divergence from prices, suggesting potential caution [11]
Breadth Breakout Drives Market Higher As Investors Remain Skeptical
Forbes· 2025-09-13 19:45
Market Performance - The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) is up 2.1% and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is up 2.9% in September, despite it being statistically a poor month for stock market averages [1] - The NYSE Composite has been trading above its yearly R1 at 20,903, reaching a high of 21,056 last week, with a yearly R2 at 22,252, which is 4.1% above the close [2] Advance/Decline Lines - The NYSE All Advance/Decline (A/D) line completed its correction in May and has made new highs in September, indicating strong market performance [3] - Despite strong A/D lines, a survey indicated that 49.5% of respondents were bearish on stocks for the next six months, suggesting a divergence between market performance and investor sentiment [4] Trading Activity - The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) closed above its August high at $583.32, projecting a move to the $615 area, with key support at $536.20 [6] - The NDX100 A/D line has shown lower highs since July and closed below its WMA, indicating potential for a deeper correction if it drops below key support [8] Cash Levels and Market Sentiment - The BofA Global Research fund manager's survey reported cash levels at 3.9%, often seen before market declines, with a historical low of 3.5% in February preceding a significant decline [9]