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Are Early-Season Metrics Signaling Challenges for Vail Resorts?
ZACKS· 2026-01-16 18:36
Core Insights - Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) reported a weak early ski season performance, with metrics indicating significant declines compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Early Season Performance - The early ski season is one of the weakest in over 30 years, attributed to snowfall being approximately 50% below the 30-year average and nearly 60% below average in the Rockies [2] - Terrain availability was limited to about 11% in December, negatively impacting visitation and guest spending [2] - Season-to-date skier visits fell by 20.0%, while total lift revenues declined by 1.8% [4] Group 2: Financial Expectations - Vail Resorts expects its full-year Resort Reported EBITDA to be slightly below the lower end of the previously issued guidance range of $842 million to $898 million [5] - The company cited risks related to slower-than-expected recovery and continued weak conditions in the Rockies [5] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to its advanced commitment strategy and has introduced initiatives such as Epic Friends tickets and a lift ticket program to support future visitation [6] - Increased marketing spend beyond traditional channels is expected to drive long-term growth [6] Group 4: Stock Performance - Shares of Vail Resorts declined by 2.4% during the trading session following the news and have fallen 12% over the past six months, compared to a 7.8% decline in the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry [3][7] - The company's near-term prospects are affected by challenging weather conditions, but strategic initiatives may offer potential upside [7]