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Sprouts Farmers vs. Kroger: Which Grocery Stock is a Better Bet Now?
ZACKS· 2025-05-22 15:06
Core Viewpoint - Grocery retailers are showing resilience amid economic challenges, with Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. and The Kroger Co. attracting investor interest due to solid fundamentals and strategic initiatives [1] Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (SFM) - SFM has grown its presence in the natural and organic grocery segment, reporting a 19% year-over-year increase in total sales to $2.2 billion and an 11.7% rise in comparable store sales [2] - The target market for SFM is estimated at $290 billion of the $1.6 trillion spent on food at home, with specialty offerings gaining market share [3] - E-commerce sales increased by 28% year over year, constituting 15% of total revenues, with plans to open at least 35 new stores in 2025 [4] - SFM generated $299 million in operating cash flow, allowing for $49 million in capital expenditures and $219 million returned to shareholders through buybacks [5] - Management has guided total sales growth of 12-14% and comparable store sales growth of 5.5-7.5% for 2025, with expected earnings per share of $4.94–$5.10 [6] The Kroger Co. (KR) - KR maintains a customer-centric strategy with over 90% of households purchasing its private-label products, launching more than 900 items in 2024 [7] - Digital sales surpassed $13 billion in fiscal 2024, driven by initiatives like the Boost membership program and investments in automation [8] - Alternative profit businesses generated $1.35 billion in operating profit in fiscal 2024, supported by a 17% increase in media revenues [9] - KR faced challenges from lower fuel sales and a significant increase in debt following the termination of the Albertsons merger, with projected net interest expenses rising to $650–$675 million in fiscal 2025 [11] Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SFM's EPS has increased, suggesting year-over-year growth rates of 35.5% and 12% for the current and next fiscal years, respectively [12] - KR's EPS estimates have remained stable, indicating year-over-year growth rates of 6% and 8.5% for the current and next fiscal years [13] - Year-to-date stock performance shows SFM advancing 29.6% compared to KR's 12.7% growth [14] - SFM's forward P/E ratio is 30.98, while KR's is 14.16, indicating differing valuations [15] - SFM is viewed as a stronger investment option due to its strategic focus on growth and operational efficiency, while KR faces pressures from increased debt [16]