Market Analysis & Currency Dynamics - In USD terms, US assets showed significant growth since COVID, with NASDAQ up 165%, S&P up 102%, and home prices up 56% [1] - When redenominated in gold, these gains shrink to flat, indicating a potential overvaluation in USD terms [1] - When redenominated in Bitcoin, NASDAQ is down 78%, S&P is down 84%, and home prices are down 87%, suggesting a collapse in the unit of account [1] - The perceived growth in USD terms may be a reflection of the currency's debasement rather than actual asset appreciation [2] - Gold and Bitcoin are marking down the old world in real time, indicating a shift in how investors perceive value [2] Imperial Carry Trade & Currency Risk - The US is executing the last phase of an imperial carry trade, attracting global capital and inflating nominal asset prices [2][3] - This strategy exports currency risk to those holding dollar claims [3] - Historically, empires decline when their citizens start measuring value in alternative units [3] - A critical mass of investors are now measuring the world in Bitcoin and gold instead of dollars, signaling a potential regime shift [3] - Once this shift hardens, the existing regime is effectively over [4]