Core Insights - Chinese coal prices are rising due to unpredictable weather and increased government supervision aimed at preventing accidents and curbing overproduction [1][2] - The government's anti-involution campaign is expected to become a standard practice, focusing on reducing overcapacity through safety checks [1][2] - Benchmark thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port increased to 723 yuan ($101) per ton, up from a four-year low of 610 yuan per ton in June [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Flooding in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces is likely to reduce coal supply in the coming months, while imports may also slow as winter restocking is nearly complete [4] - Heavy rains have increased hydropower availability, potentially reducing coal demand, alongside a slowing economy that caps fuel consumption [4] - Unusual weather patterns, including high temperatures and early heating needs, are expected to increase coal usage [5] Market Outlook - The market is leaning towards price increases, but accurately predicting price levels is becoming more complex [5][6] - Analysts expect a mild gain in coal prices, but the exact amount remains uncertain [6]