Summary of ZTO Express Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express (ZTO.N, ZTO UN) - **Industry**: Transportation & Infrastructure in Hong Kong/China - **Conference**: China BEST Conference 3Q 2025 Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Volume Slowdown**: ZTO has experienced a slowdown in market volume in August due to logistics price hikes, with expectations of more significant impacts from September to October [3] 2. **Parcel Trends**: Management views the reduction of low Average Order Value (AOV) parcels as a healthy trend for the express delivery segment, although market share and pricing restrictions may hinder ZTO's market share gains [3] 3. **Retail Parcel Handling**: ZTO handled 850 million retail parcels per day in Q2 2025, with a target of 1 billion parcels per day during peak season [10] 4. **Pricing Strategy**: ZTO raised end-market prices by approximately RMB 0.3 in Guangdong, expecting to benefit by around RMB 0.1 per parcel. Price hikes of RMB 0.2-0.4 are also being discussed in other regions [9] 5. **Financial Metrics**: - **Market Cap**: RMB 102,632 million - **Revenue Estimates**: Expected to grow from RMB 44,281 million in FY 2024 to RMB 63,499 million in FY 2027 [6] - **Net Income**: Projected to increase from RMB 10,150 million in FY 2024 to RMB 10,898 million in FY 2027 [6] - **P/E Ratio**: Expected to decrease from 11.9 in FY 2024 to 10.0 in FY 2027 [6] 6. **Capital Expenditure**: Management anticipates a gradual decrease in capital expenditure to RMB 3-4 billion per annum over the medium term [9] 7. **Market Share Strategy**: Maintaining market share is a strategic priority, with potential industry consolidation expected through competition or mergers and acquisitions [9] 8. **Social Security Impact**: If social security payments for couriers are enforced, ZTO is expected to benefit due to its higher unit profit and labor efficiency compared to peers [9] Additional Important Insights 1. **Unit Gross Profit**: The estimated unit gross profit for return parcels is around RMB 1, with unit profit ranging from RMB 0.6 to RMB 0.8 [10] 2. **Price Gap**: The price gap between ZTO and lagging competitors has narrowed to less than RMB 0.1 from a previous range of RMB 0.1-0.5 before the price hike [9] 3. **Risks**: - **Upside Risks**: Faster market share gain, better cost control, and weak performance from peers could enhance ZTO's position [14] - **Downside Risks**: Continued market share loss and intensified competition could negatively impact ZTO [14] Valuation and Price Target - **Price Target**: US$ 23.80, representing a 31% upside from the closing price of US$ 18.20 on August 29, 2025 [6] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the ZTO Express conference call, highlighting the company's current market position, financial outlook, and strategic priorities.